Shabnam von Hein 2026年10月22日 伊朗与阿富汗、巴基斯坦接壤的边境地区暴力事件呈上升趋势。伊朗战争可能改变在该地区活动的武装团体的战略平衡。
Shabnam von Hein October 22, 2026 Violence is on the rise in Iran's border region with Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Iran war could shift the strategic balance for militant groups operating in the area.
伊朗军事力量部署在东南部边境地区 近几周，与巴基斯坦和阿富汗接壤的东南部省份再次发生袭击、暗杀和武装冲突。事件发生在省会扎黑丹以及较小的边境城镇。
Iranian military forces are present in the southeastern border region Recent weeks have seen renewed attacks, assassinations and armed clashes in the southeastern province bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan. The incidents occurred in the provincial capital of Zahedan, as well as smaller border towns.
伊朗、巴基斯坦和阿富汗的边境地区是俾路支族聚居地。伊朗-巴基斯坦边境两侧的地区属于更大区域内经济最不发达的地区之一。
The border region of Iran Pakistan and Afghanistan is home to the Baloch ethnic minority. The region on either side of the Iran-Pakistan border is among the most economically disadvantaged of the wider area.
巴基斯坦的俾路支斯坦省尽管拥有大量天然气、黄金和铜储量，但经济依然欠发达。
The Pakistani province of Balochistan is economically underdeveloped, despite having large reserves of natural gas, gold and copper.
伊朗的锡斯坦-俾路支斯坦省情况同样严峻，该省以逊尼派俾路支人为主。它是伊朗最贫困的地区之一，基础设施欠发达、教育机会有限且面临供水短缺。关于阿富汗境内俾路支族状况的信息则少得多。
The situation is similarly dire in the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchistan, which is predominantly inhabited by Sunni Baluchis. It is one of the poorest regions in the country and marked by underdeveloped infrastructure, limited educational opportunities and water supply shortages. Significantly less information is available about the situation of the Baloch in Afghanistan.
武装团体察觉安全真空 多个俾路支团体在伊朗和巴基斯坦活动，其中一些寻求俾路支斯坦独立。但迄今为止，没有证据表明这些组织之间存在跨境协同合作。
Armed groups sense security gaps Various Baloch groups are active in Iran and Pakistan some of whom seek Balochistan independence. Yet to date, there is no evidence of coordinated cross-border cooperation among these organizations.
2025年12月，伊朗的几个俾路支反对团体在“人民战士阵线”旗下联合。观察人士认为，这是试图更紧密地整合其政治和军事活动。
In December 2025, several Baloch opposition groups in Iran united under the umbrella of the Popular Fighters Front. Observers see this as an attempt to more closely integrate their political and military activities.
伊朗记者梅赫迪·纳赫勒·艾哈迈迪对德国之声表示，这个在伊朗战争爆发前成立的联盟，可能试图利用当前局势造成的安全真空。
This coalition, which formed before the outbreak of the Iran war could try to exploit security gaps created by the current situation, Iranian journalist Mehdi Nakhl Ahmadi told DW.
居住在意大利的艾哈迈迪多年来一直关注俾路支人的处境。他说，新的安全形势可能让武装团体扩大行动范围。
Ahmadi, who lives in Italy, has been covering the situation of the Baloch people for years. He said the new security situation could allow armed groups to expand their operations.
在贫困与边缘化中挣扎 艾哈迈迪表示，俾路支人的不满有结构性原因。“伊斯兰共和国针对民族和宗教地区的安全政策，在最近几十年里拉大了这些地区与该国其他地区在经济发展上的差距，”他说。
Struggling with poverty, suffering marginalization Ahmadi said there are structural reasons for Baloch dissatisfaction. "The Islamic Republic's security policy toward ethnic and religious regions has widened the gap in economic development between these regions and other parts of the country in recent decades," he said.
他补充道，袭击事件增多表明局势动态发生了变化，近期行动中协调程度提高、手法出现变化也印证了这一点。
He added that the rising number of attacks points to a shift in dynamics, as do increased coordination and changes in the way recent operations have been carried out.
近期冲突的受害者包括伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队成员、巴西吉民兵成员、武装人员以及一名逊尼派神职人员。
Among the victims of recent clashes were members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, the Basij militia, armed individuals, and a Sunni cleric.
一位熟悉俾路支人处境的伊朗内部消息人士——出于安全原因我们无法披露其身份——将部分武装暴力归因于政治、经济和宗教层面的不满。
A source within Iran, who is familiar with the situation of the Baloch people, yet whose identity we cannot disclose security for reasons, attributed some of the armed violence to political, economic and religious discontent.
该消息人士称，就业、教育、地区发展和宗教事务方面的歧视加剧了紧张局势。
Discrimination in employment, education, regional development and religious matters contribute to the tension, the source said.
美以战争期间伊朗处决人数激增 观看此视频 ，这也是武装冲突不应被孤立看待的原因，该伊朗消息人士解释道。神职人员、学者和其他社会领袖多年来一直试图以和平方式表达诉求，要求改善社会政策、增加对该地区的投资，该消息人士说。
executions surge in Iran during US-Israeli war To view this video , and That's why the armed conflict should not be viewed in isolation, the Iranian source explained. Clergy, academics and other social leaders had been trying for years to peacefully voice their demands for better social policies and greater investment in the region, the source said.
这些努力基本未获成功，导致部分人越来越倾向于采取更激进的手段。
The fact that these efforts were largely unsuccessful had led to a growing willingness among some to resort to more radical measures.
“最近几十年处决人数居高不下，是助长不满的另一个因素，”该消息人士说。与此同时，该省有记录的处决大多与毒品犯罪有关。
"The high number of executions in recent decades is another factor that fuels discontent," said the source. Most documented executions in the province, meanwhile, are related to drug offenses.
尽管俾路支人仅占伊朗人口的估计 2% 至 6%，但他们在被处决人群中所占比例显著偏高。
Although Baluchis make only up an estimated 2–6% of the Iranian population, they are significantly overrepresented among those put to death.
伊朗人权组织报告称，俾路支人占2025年所有记录在案处决案件的9%。此前几年，这一比例分别为11%（2024年）和20%（2023年）。
Iran Human Rights reports that Baluchis accounted for 9% of all recorded executions in 2025. In previous years, that figure was 11% (2024) and 20% (2023), respectively.
对于生活在这个经济欠发达地区的许多人来说，将鸦片走私进伊朗、将燃料走私出境，是为数不多的谋生途径之一。这反过来又导致边境地区持续存在军事和安全部队。与此同时，尚不清楚伊朗东南部的武装团体是否获得外部支持。
For many people who live in this economically disadvantaged region, smuggling opium into Iran, and fuel out of the country, are one of the few ways to earn a living. This, in turn, has contributed to a continued military and security presence at the border. It is not, meanwhile, known whether armed groups in southeastern Iran are being supported from abroad.
对该地区许多人而言，在伊朗-巴基斯坦边境走私燃料是为数不多的谋生途径之一。巴基斯坦俾路支斯坦省的暴力冲突也在升级。据巴基斯坦冲突与安全研究所统计，9月记录在案的武装袭击达131起，高于8月的89起。
For many people in the region, fuel smuggling across the Iran-Pakistan border is one of the few ways to make a living Violence has also escalated in the Pakistani province of Balochistan. According to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies 131 armed attacks were recorded there in September, up from 89 in August.
除了活跃多年的分离主义运动外，巴基斯坦塔利班（TTP）也在扩大行动。这导致伊朗与巴基斯坦之间具有战略重要性的交通联线面临日益增大的压力。
In addition to the separatist movement, which has been active for years, the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) are also expanding their operations. This had led to strategically important transportation links between Iran and Pakistan coming under growing pressure.
尽管如此，仍无法确定伊朗锡斯坦-俾路支斯坦省近期暴力事件激增，是否源于伊朗战争导致的安全漏洞。
Still, it cannot be said with certainty whether the recent uptick in violence in Iran's Sistan and Baluchistan province stems from security gaps resulting from the Iran war.
不过，袭击事件数量的增加确实表明，这个本已脆弱的边境地区安全局势持续恶化。
The growing number of attacks does, however, suggests that the security situation in the already fragile border region continues to deteriorate.