
投资者开始对生物技术股票转为谨慎,因为美国国债收益率的快速上升削弱了那些通常被视为押注突破性医疗疗法的高风险“孤注一掷”股票的吸引力。
Investors are beginning to turn cautious on biotechnology stocks as a rapid rise in Treasury yields dents the appeal for shares of companies that are often viewed as risky all-or-nothing bets on breakthrough medical treatments.
自8月19日见顶以来,纳斯达克生物技术指数已下跌3.8%,而美国10年期国债收益率在此期间跳升近半个百分点,一度触及5.34%,为2002年以来的最高水平。该指数追踪近250家生物技术公司,今年迄今仍上涨约25%,但最新的回调表明,飙升的收益率正在令股票投资者感到恐慌。
The Nasdaq Biotech Index has slumped 3.8% since its Aug. 19 peak while the US 10-year yield jumped nearly half a percentage point since then and briefly hit 5.34%, its highest level since 2002. The gauge, which tracks nearly 250 biotech companies, is still up roughly 25% this year, but the latest pullback is a sign that soaring yields are spooking equity investors.
生物技术股票对利率上升的影响具有独特的脆弱性,尤其是在风险偏好方面。这些股票常被视为彩票式投资,要么可能变成巨大的意外之财,要么则可能最终变得几近一文不值。随着投资者现在连最安全的债券也能获得更丰厚的补偿,对股市中风险较高的细分领域的需求开始减弱。
Biotech stocks are uniquely vulnerable to the impact of rising rates, especially when it comes to risk appetite. The stocks are often seen as lottery ticket-type investments, which could either turn into massive windfalls, or on the flip side, end up being worth next to nothing. With investors now able to get heftier compensation for even the safest bonds, demand for riskier niches of the stock market is starting to wane.
“早期生物技术公司的价值主张变得更具挑战性,因为投资者现在拥有一个风险高得多的无风险替代品,”White Manna Capital创始人兼首席投资官William Soliman表示。
“The value proposition for early-stage biotechs becomes more challenging because investors now have a much higher risk-free alternative,” said William Soliman, founder and chief investment officer of White Manna Capital.
今年美国国债收益率大幅攀升,受能源价格飙升和企业为资助其人工智能项目而激进借贷所推动。10年期国债收益率升破5%的速度凸显了投资者对通胀持续顽固的担忧,即使美联储誓言要遏制物价压力。
US Treasury yields have climbed briskly this year, driven by soaring energy prices and companies borrowing aggressively to fund their AI endeavors. The pace of the 10-year government-bond rate’s ascent above 5% highlights investors’ concerns about inflation remaining persistent, even as the Federal Reserve vows to tamp down on price pressures.
这使已经捉襟见肘的生物技术公司处境更加复杂。根据彭博汇编的数据,纳斯达克生物技术指数成分股中,过去一年盈利的不足四分之一,约有一半公司的手头现金不足以覆盖其持续运营开支六个月。
That complicates the backdrop for already cash-strapped biotech companies. Less than a quarter of Nasdaq Biotech Index stocks have been profitable over the past year and about half have fewer than six months of cash on hand needed to cover their ongoing expenses, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
在利率上升的环境下,生物技术行业的投资者希望获得更高的回报,以承担那些可能还需要多年才能实现盈利的公司的临床研究、监管合规以及融资风险,索利曼(Soliman)补充道。
In a higher rate environment, investors in the biotech sector will want to be compensated more to take on the clinical, regulatory and financing risk of a company that may be years away from generating revenue, Soliman added.
即便如此,仍有一些长期投资者对生物技术行业持乐观态度,比如加贝利(Gabelli)基金的投资组合经理埃琳娜·孟(Elena Meng)。
Even so, some long-term investors like Elena Meng, a portfolio manager at Gabelli, remain bullish on the biotech sector.
“我们在投资生物技术公司时一直非常注重估值因素,因此利率的变化并不会从根本上改变我们的投资策略,”她说。
“We have always been very valuation conscious in biotech, so the moving rates doesn’t fundamentally change how we invest in the sector,” she said.
今年,该行业确实出现了一些积极信号:Moderna公司和默克公司(Merck & Co.)在临床试验中取得了积极成果,这些成果提高了人们对治疗最致命类型皮肤癌的疗效的期望;这使得Moderna的股价在2026年上涨了超过700%(此前该公司已连续四年股价下跌)。Revolution Medicines公司获得了美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)的批准,其开发的药物能够延长晚期胰腺癌患者的生命,该公司股价今年也因此上涨了超过140%。
There have been some bright spots for the sector this year. Positive trial data from Moderna Inc. and Merck & Co., which raised expectations for treating the deadliest form of skin cancer, has pushed the former’s stock more than 700% higher so far in 2026, after four consecutive full years of declines. Revolution Medicines Inc. winning US approval for a pill that lengthens the lives of patients with advanced pancreatic cancer has driven gains of more than 140% in its shares this year.
虽然利率上升会增加生物技术公司的资金成本、现金流压力以及融资风险,但加贝利基金的承销流程会充分考虑这些因素,孟解释道。
While higher rates impact biotech companies’ cost of capital, cash runway and their financing risk, Gabelli’s underwriting process takes these factors into account, Meng said.
RBC资本市场的分析师也对生物技术股票持乐观态度,他们认为如果人工智能相关投资的热度减退,生物技术股票将从中受益。
RBC Capital Markets analysts are also positive on biotech stocks, expecting them to benefit from a rotation out of tech, should the artificial intelligence trade fade.
不过,贝尔德(Baird)公司的医疗保健行业专家迈克·佩罗内(Mike Perrone)指出:由于该行业的表现与临床试验结果密切相关,因此如果一些大型生物技术公司传出负面消息,将会打击投资者对该行业的热情。
However, since the sector’s performance is tied to clinical-trial outcomes, any bad news from a few big names would dampen enthusiasm for the stocks, said Mike Perrone, a healthcare specialist at Baird.
目前也出现了一些令人担忧的迹象:专注于基因组编辑技术的Caribou Biosciences公司本月早些时候表示,计划终止两个治疗项目,并正在探索战略性的替代方案(包括可能的合并或收购),同时还会削减员工人数和成本。该公司股价今年已下跌了超过60%。
There have been some signs of stress. Caribou Biosciences Inc., which specializes in genome-editing, said earlier this month that it plans to discontinue two of its therapy programs and is exploring strategic alternatives, including a potential merger or acquisition. It’s also planning workforce and cost reductions. The company’s shares have declined more than 60% this year.
Caribou Biosciences首席执行官Rachel Haurwitz表示,许多投资者“完全将该领域的新投资降级,因为还有其他令人兴奋的领域,那里有大量的交易流。”
Many investors “have totally de-prioritized new investments in this space because there is other exciting stuff where there’s a lot of deal flow,” Caribou’s Chief Executive Officer Rachel Haurwitz said.
Perrone表示,目前的利率环境将使生物技术股难以吸引跨行业配置资金的非专业投资者。对利率上升的担忧已经迫使华尔街投资者撤出股票基金,转向避险资产。尽管美国主要股指本月初创下新高,但有人认为这种韧性仅限于几十只股票。
For now, the rate environment will make it difficult for biotech stocks to lure non-specialist investors who put their money across sectors, Perrone said. Concerns about rising interest rates are already pushing Wall Street investors out of equity funds and into safety assets. Despite major US stock indexes hitting fresh records earlier this month, some argue that the resilience is limited to a few dozen stocks.
Perrone说:“这将成为普通投资者回归的逆风,因为他们在决定何时轮动进军生物技术板块时,会考虑更多宏观因素。当你面临一个非常明确的负面因素,如利率上升,这会让他们更加犹豫。”
“It’s going to be a headwind for generalist investors coming back because they look at more macro factors as far as when to rotate into biotech,” Perrone said. “When you have a very known negative factor like higher interest rates, it’s going to give them additional pause.”