德克萨斯州泰勒市的肯·帕克斯顿发起了一个挑战：“来试试看吧。”这句话既是德克萨斯大学“长角牛队”的口号，也是德克萨斯士兵在冈萨雷斯战役中的战斗口号；这场战役标志着德克萨斯革命的爆发。在德克萨斯州，这句话具有特殊的意义。詹姆斯·塔拉里科接受了帕克斯顿的挑战。塔拉里科在参议院选举中的积极表现让民主党人相信，他们终于有机会扭转德克萨斯州的局势——该州上次选出民主党参议员还是在1988年。
Tyler, Texas Ken Paxton has issued a dare: “Come and take it.”That’s the motto of the Texas Longhorns and Texas soldiers’ cry in the Battle of Gonzales, which kicked off the Texas Revolution. It means a lot in the state. James Talarico has accepted Mr. Paxton’s dare. Mr. Talarico’s spirited Senate run has Democrats convinced they can finally flip Texas, which last elected a Democratic U.S. senator in 1988.
在当前这个艰难的全国性政治环境下，随着共和党候选人存在诸多缺陷，这一长期以来的梦想在2026年似乎比以往任何时候都更有可能实现。
With a flawed Republican candidate in a tough national environment, this perennial dream seems more realistic in 2026 than it’s been in decades.
作为该州的司法部长，帕克斯顿在初选中击败了参议员约翰·科宁。他的主要优势在于“惯性”：自1994年以来，德克萨斯州从未选出过民主党人担任任何州级公职；该州三次投票支持特朗普当选总统，而在我访问德克萨斯州的前一周，特朗普还与帕克斯顿进行了联合活动。这进一步凸显了帕克斯顿的另一个优势：共和党的选举机器在这次竞选中发挥了最大作用。
Mr. Paxton, the state attorney general, defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the primary. His main advantage is inertia. Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to any statewide office since 1994. The state voted three times for President Trump, who rallied with Mr. Paxton a week before my visit. That points to another Paxton advantage: the Republican Party’s election machine, at its highest setting for this contest.
到选举日时，与共和党结盟的团体将为帕克斯顿的参议院竞选投入超过2亿美元——这笔资金本可以用于其他竞争激烈的共和党候选人的竞选活动。然而，大多数民调仍显示帕克斯顿处于劣势。
By Election Day, Republican-aligned groups will have spent more than $200 million on Mr. Paxton’s Senate run—money Republicans in other close races would have liked to see. Yet most polls still show him behind.
为什么需要投入如此巨额的资金呢？仅仅用德克萨斯州高昂的媒体成本来解释这一现象是不够的。即便在特朗普不受欢迎、且住房价格与腐败问题对共和党不利的情况下，共和党在德克萨斯州的竞选依然困难重重。原因其实出在候选人自身：帕克斯顿缺乏魅力，且存在诸多道德上的缺陷（即他的个人品行令人失望）。
Why so much money? Texas’ expensive media market isn’t a sufficient explanation. Even a political environment in which Mr. Trump is unpopular and where two of the main issues, affordability and corruption, don’t play to Republicans’ strengths doesn’t fully account for Republicans’ Texas struggle. Blame the candidate. Mr. Paxton is uninspiring and compromised.
因此，共和党人将重点放在了他的对手身上。在10月13日于泰勒机场举行的集会上，当地多位共和党政治人物，以及农业部长布鲁克·罗林斯和副总统J.D.万斯，都强烈反对塔拉里科先生——这位州众议员。塔拉里科的言论记录（这些言论均出自他本人之口）依然令人震惊：他曾称“上帝是非二元的”，将美国国旗称为“一个复杂的象征”，并表示自己“憎恨基督教”，并将资本主义与“白人至上主义”联系在一起。
Hence the Republican focus on his opponent. At an Oct. 13 rally in Tyler’s airport, a cast of local Republican politicians, as well as Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and Vice President JD Vance, argued strongly against Mr. Talarico, a state representative. The rap sheet, consisting of Mr. Talarico’s own words, still stings after many repetitions. He said that “God is nonbinary.”He called the American flag a “complicated symbol.”
这些言论足以让万斯的说法显得可信——即“在任何问题上，他都不会与华盛顿的民主党人意见相左”。集会参与者都被说服了。81岁的芭芭拉·奎因说：“塔拉里科看起来很真诚，但实际上并非如此；他的投票记录与他的言论完全相反。”
He said he “hates Christianity.”He linked capitalism with “white supremacy.”It’s more than enough to make credible Mr. Vance’s claim that “on no issue will he dissent” from Washington Democrats. Rally attendees were convinced. Mr. Talarico “seems very real and genuine, but he’s not,” said Barbara Quinn, 81. “When you look at his voting record and what he says now, it’s completely opposite.”
而为帕克斯顿先生辩护则更加困难。在未质疑塔拉里科性取向的问题时，万斯强调了帕克斯顿敢于挑战大企业的勇气。特雷弗·内尔斯正在竞选他孪生兄弟特洛伊留下的美国众议院席位，他直言不讳地指出了帕克斯顿的缺点。内尔斯承认，由于科宁先生的落败，一些共和党选民可能仍心存不满，但他敦促共和党支持者“向前看，而不是总盯着过去的问题”；他还提醒他们“每个人都有缺点，没有人是完美的”。
Making the case for Mr. Paxton is harder. When not questioning Mr. Talarico’s sexuality, Mr. Vance emphasized Mr. Paxton’s willingness to take on big business. Trever Nehls, running for the U.S. House seat being vacated by his twin brother, Troy, tried bluntness. Acknowledging that some GOP voters might still be sour after Mr. Cornyn’s defeat, Mr. Nehls urged GOP faithful to “look out the big windshield and stop looking in the rearview mirror.”He asked them to “look beyond some of the blemishes” because “no one is perfect.”
不过，这其实是一种轻描淡写的说法。2023年，德克萨斯州众议院以贿赂、腐败和滥用职权为由弹劾了帕克斯顿，但参议院最终宣告他无罪。帕克斯顿的妻子安吉拉·帕克斯顿去年提出离婚诉讼，指控他通奸。帕克斯顿的种种丑闻至今仍备受关注。在我抵达泰勒之前，《泰勒日报》曾报道，帕克斯顿曾在迪拜与逃避美国司法追捕的逃犯们一起参加派对。
That’s an understatement. The Texas House impeached Mr. Paxton in 2023 for bribery, corruption and abusing his office, though the Senate acquitted him. His wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce last year alleging he had committed adultery. The full extent of Mr. Paxton’s blemishes is a moving target. Shortly before I got to Tyler, the Journal reported that he had partied in Dubai with fugitives from U.S. justice. (Mr. Paxton has refused to discuss his divorce publicly. A campaign spokesman didn’t address the Dubai claims specifically but told the Journal: “Like President Trump, Ken Paxton has been politically persecuted for years.”)
（帕克斯顿拒绝公开谈论自己的离婚事宜。）该竞选活动的发言人并未直接回应有关迪拜的指控，但向《Journal》表示：“与特朗普总统一样，肯·帕克斯顿多年来也一直遭受政治迫害。”帕克斯顿缺乏足够的个人魅力来摆脱那些丑闻。他在演讲中的表现平淡无奇；那些本应引发笑声的幽默语句（比如“我想我们仍然称它为大西洋”以及“乔·拜登已经‘卸任’了”）并未引起听众的共鸣。
Mr. Paxton lacks the charisma to escape his scandals. He was flat in Tyler. Intended laugh lines about the Atlantic Ocean (“I think we’re still calling it that”) and Joe Biden’s having “transitioned out of office” got little from the crowd.
他的说话方式显得随意、缺乏激情。共和党人之所以选择帕克斯顿，一方面是出于对塔拉里科的不满，另一方面也是出于对帕克斯顿本人的勉强支持。79岁的罗伊·R·雷诺兹说：“我宁愿听到‘不’这个回答，也不愿听到‘绝对不行’这样的断然否定。”帕克斯顿的竞选团队完全没有展现出任何信心。有人试图阻止我与集会参与者交谈；尽管我多次请求采访这位候选人，却始终没有得到任何回应。帕克斯顿也没有接受塔拉里科提出的辩论挑战。
He spoke softly. His manner was slovenly and low-energy. A combination of grudging obligation to Mr. Paxton and antipathy for Mr. Talarico is Republicans’ best bet. “We’ve got ‘nuh-uh’ and ‘absolutely not,’ ” Roy R. Reynolds, 79, said. “I’ll take ‘nuh-uh’ over ‘absolutely not.’ ” Mr. Paxton’s campaign doesn’t exude confidence. Someone associated with it tried to prevent me from speaking with rally attendees. I got no response to repeated requests for an interview with the candidate. He hasn’t taken up Mr. Talarico’s challenge to debate.
对德克萨斯州的共和党人来说，投票给帕克斯顿已经成了一件令人厌烦的任务。帕克斯顿的妻子发布了一则广告，声称自己愿意正视那些“难以回避的问题”，并敦促德克萨斯州的选民们“让整个团队共同完成目标”——不过她在广告中并未提及与自己关系疏远的丈夫。
Voting for Mr. Paxton has become a chore for Texas Republicans. Mrs. Paxton released an ad professing to address “the elephant in the room,” in which she urged Texans to get “the whole team across the finish line”—without naming her estranged husband.
与塔拉里科的支持者形成了鲜明对比：10月15日，塔拉里科的支持者们纷纷涌向圣马科斯的一个足球场，那里的场地被布置得像比赛现场一样灯火通明。塔拉里科站在一个简单的舞台上，仅使用一个麦克风进行演讲，他努力模仿奥巴马的演讲风格，同时融入了德克萨斯州的口音。作为一名长老会神学院的学生，他在演讲中多次提及自己的信仰。演讲结束后，许多听众仍留在现场，纷纷要求拍摄塔拉里科的广告；塔拉里科本人也留下来与大家合影。
The contrast with Mr. Talarico’s supporters is stark. On Oct. 15, they thronged to a nighttime rally on a football field in San Marcos lit for a game. Mr. Talarico stood on a simple stage with a single microphone and spoke in a practiced casual air, doing his best to seem Obamaesque with a Texas twang. A Presbyterian seminarian, he frequently referenced his faith. Rally attendees stuck around well after it ended to pose for several takes of a Talarico ad; he lingered for photographs.
在10月14日于圣马科斯以及由CNN和Jubilee在沃思堡联合举办的市政厅活动中，塔拉里科先生将这次中期选举中的两个最紧迫的问题巧妙地结合在了一起，用一句话进行了阐述：“我们之所以面临住房价格高涨的问题，根本原因在于腐败现象的盛行。”帕克斯顿先生的过往记录进一步印证了这一观点；因此，塔拉里科称他为“德克萨斯州最腐败的政客”这一说法几乎无可争议。
At both San Marcos and a town-hall event held by CNN and Jubilee in Fort Worth on Oct. 14, Mr. Talarico combined two of this midterm’s biggest issues into one sound bite. “We have an affordability crisis because we have a corruption crisis.”Mr. Paxton’s record makes it potent. It’s hard to dispute Mr. Talarico’s description of him as “the most corrupt politician in Texas.”
对于那些渴望投票反对特朗普和帕克斯顿的民主党人来说，这些言论无疑极具说服力。但在这个保守的州里，其他选民的态度又是如何呢？塔拉里科表示，在他的竞选集会结束后，许多选民会紧张地找到他，小声说：“我不是民主党人……”37岁的安德鲁·费舍尔自称曾经是共和党人，他表示完全相信塔拉里科的话：“我身处那些共和党人的圈子中，也参与了那些与政治相关的讨论活动；在这些‘梦幻橄榄球’（一种在线政治讨论平台）中，人们对肯·帕克斯顿的态度明显非常冷淡。”
All of this is brisket to Democrats eager to vote against Messrs. Trump and Paxton. But what about others in this red state? Mr. Talarico said that after his rallies end, nervous voters “come up to me and whisper, ‘I’m not a Democrat’ like they’re in the witness-protection program.”Andrew Fisher, 37, a self-described former Republican, believes him. “I’m in those circles. I’m in those text threads. I’m in those fantasy football leagues, and you’re not seeing any enthusiasm about Ken Paxton at all,” Mr. Fisher said.
为了争取这些选民的支持，塔拉里科试图改变自己在他们眼中的形象，承认自己过去的一些言论确实“偏离了目标”或“令人反感”。在CNN的市政厅活动中，他声称如果自己的政党干涉石油和天然气行业（而他本人一直批评这个行业），他会坚决反抗；他还表示，自己对资本主义的批评实际上是对“裙带资本主义”的批判——而亚当·斯密肯定会反对这种形式的资本主义。此外，他还抨击了乔·拜登在移民问题上的政策。
Mr. Talarico has tried to make himself palatable to such voters, saying some of his past statements “missed the mark” and were “annoying.”In the CNN town hall, he claimed he would “stand up to my party” if they mess with oil and gas, an industry he has criticized, and claimed his critique of capitalism was actually a critique of “crony capitalism,” which Adam Smith would hate. He’s attacked Joe Biden’s immigration record.
其他相关议题并未被讨论。45岁的乔迪·亨特在市政厅会议上与塔拉里科先生就堕胎问题进行了讨论。塔拉里科试图与这位来自达拉斯大学（一所天主教院校）的教职员工找到妥协的切入点；然而，她坚决反对塔拉里科认为《圣经》对堕胎问题“保持沉默”的观点。她说：“他成功塑造了自己作为中间派、温和派人士的形象；但归根结底，我们仍在质疑：当他声称自己会支持德克萨斯州、不会投票给加州候选人时，我们真的能相信他的话吗？”
Others aren’t sold. Jodi Hunt, 45, discussed abortion with Mr. Talarico at the town hall. He tried to find areas of compromise with Ms. Hunt, a member of the faculty at the University of Dallas, a Catholic institution. She objected to his assertion that the Bible is “silent” on abortion. “He achieved his goal of presenting himself as a centrist, as a moderate,” she said. “But I think at the end of the day we were still questioning: Can we really trust that he will do what he said he’s going to do, when he said that I’m going to be pro-Texas and not be voting for the Californians?”
在德克萨斯州，共和党的影响力依然强大——这或许足以帮助他们在今年赢得选举。然而，一个世纪以来首次，共和党因固守现状以及选出了一个有缺陷的候选人而处于被动防守的地位。帕克斯顿先生在阿尔阿莫（Alamo）举行的最后一场竞选集会，将决定这一策略是否有效。
Republican affiliation remains strong in Texas. That may be enough this year. But for the first time in a generation, the GOP, attached to the status quo and saddled with a flawed candidate, is on the defensive. After Mr. Paxton’s final “come and take it” rally, we’ll learn whether it worked. It’s taking place at the Alamo.
巴特勒先生目前担任《华尔街日报》（WSJ）“言论自由”（Free Expression）专栏通讯的副主编。
Mr. Butler is deputy editor of WSJ Opinion’s Free Expression newsletter.