东京 —— 周五公布的数据显示，日本9月核心消费者通胀率时隔九个月再次超过央行2%的目标，显示物价压力正在扩散，巩固了近期加息的理由。
TOKYO -- Japan's core consumer inflation exceeded the central bank's 2% target in September for the first time in nine months, data showed on Friday, a sign of broadening price pressure that cements the case for a near-term interest rate hike.
数据凸显了，由于中东冲突长期化导致燃料成本上升、日元疲软推高进口价格以及强劲的AI需求带来的价格压力，正在削弱政府燃油补贴的效果。
The figures underscored how higher fuel costs from the prolonged Middle East conflict, elevated import prices driven by the weak yen and price pressures from robust AI demand were blunting the impact of government fuel subsidies.
消息人士透露，日本央行在上个月刚刚加息后，预计下周将维持政策不变，但可能上调通胀预测，并发出准备继续推高仍处于低位的借贷成本的信号。
Having just raised interest rates last month, the Bank of Japan is set to stand pat on policy next week but may revise up its inflation forecast and signal its readiness to keep pushing up still-low borrowing costs, sources have told Reuters.
“由于中东冲突导致能源成本上升及随后的二轮效应，核心通胀预计将加速，”SOMPO研究所高级经济学家小池正人表示。
"Core inflation is expected to accelerate due to rising energy costs from the Middle East conflict and subsequent second-round effects," said Masato Koike, a senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus.
“但鉴于物价上涨并未急剧加速，10月连续加息的必要性不大，”他说，预测日本央行下一次加息将在12月。
"But with price rises not accelerating sharply, there's little need for a back-to-back rate increase in October," he said, projecting the BOJ's next hike to come in December.
数据显示，剔除波动较大的生鲜食品但包含燃料成本的核心消费者价格指数（CPI）9月同比上涨2.1%，符合市场预测中位数，涨幅较8月的1.7%有所扩大。
The core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 2.1% in September from a year earlier, data showed, matching a median market forecast and accelerating from a 1.7% rise in August.
剔除生鲜食品和燃料影响的指数——日本央行将其视为衡量需求驱动型价格压力的更好指标——9月同比上涨2.4%，高于8月的1.9%。
An index that strips away the effects of both volatile fresh food and fuel, which is closely watched by the BOJ as a better gauge of demand-driven price pressures, rose 2.4% in September from a year earlier after increasing 1.9% in August.
数据显示，商品价格9月同比上涨2.8%，涨幅较8月的2.6%扩大，显示通胀压力正在扩散。
In a sign of broadening inflationary pressure, goods prices rose 2.8% year-on-year in September, accelerating from a 2.6% gain in August, the data showed.
服务价格通胀也从上月的1.2%加速至9月的1.5%，表明企业正在将紧张劳动力市场带来的较高劳动力成本转嫁出去。
Services inflation also accelerated to 1.5% in September from 1.2% in the previous month, suggesting firms were passing on higher labor costs from a tight job market.
该数据将是日本银行在下周为期两天的货币政策会议上制定最新季度增长和物价预测时审查的因素之一，该会议将于10月30日结束。
The data will be among factors the BOJ will scrutinize in producing fresh quarterly growth and price forecasts at next week's two-day policy meeting ending on Oct. 30.
消息人士向路透社透露，日本银行可能会暗示，潜在通胀——即剔除暂时性、一次性因素后的广泛价格趋势——可能已达到2%，并强调其关注将通胀锚定在目标水平。
Sources have told Reuters the BOJ may signal that underlying inflation -- or the broad price trend stripping away temporary, one-off factors -- likely achieved 2%, and stress its focus on anchoring inflation around the target.
日本银行行长植田和男上周表示，日本银行不会容忍任何通胀超调，暗示将继续加息的决心，此前该行上月已将利率提升至31年来的高点1.25%。
Gov. Kazuo Ueda said last week the BOJ won't tolerate any inflation overshoot, signaling resolve to continue raising rates after lifting them to a 31-year high of 1.25% last month.
最近的调查显示，过去加息几乎没有抑制贷款需求的迹象，这表明还有进一步加息的空间，并引起了人们对日本银行对贷款条件评估的关注。
Recent surveys showed few signs past rate hikes were cooling loan demand, suggesting scope for further rate increases and drawing attention to the BOJ's assessment on lending conditions.
许多接受路透社调查的分析师预计，日本银行将在12月将政策利率上调至1.50%，并预测终端利率将在1.75%或2%左右。
Many analysts polled by Reuters expect the BOJ to raise its policy rate to 1.50% in December, and predict the terminal rate to be around 1.75% or 2%.
资本经济公司亚太地区主管马塞尔·蒂利安特预计，日本银行下周将维持政策不变，但将继续表达对通胀上行风险的担忧。
Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, projects the BOJ to leave policy steady next week but signal continued concerns about upside risks to inflation.
“迄今为止实施的紧缩政策几乎没有证据表明已放缓经济，风险正转向政策利率峰值高于我们预测的2%，”蒂利安特表示。
"With little evidence that the tightening delivered so far has slowed the economy, the risks are shifting towards a higher peak in the policy rate than our forecast of 2%," Thieliant said.