今年大半时间里，美国国债在科技股下跌时几乎未能为投资者提供其传统的保护作用。本周，这一角色已大幅回归。
For much of this year, Treasuries offered investors little of their traditional protection when technology stocks stumbled. This week, that role has bounced back sharply.
衡量美国政府债券与以人工智能为重点的股票之间反向关系的一个指标已增强至一年前的水平。这是一个迹象，表明不断加深的科技股抛售正将投资者推回债券市场寻求安全，复苏了此前因通胀担忧和较高利率打压国债而淡化的避险角色。
A gauge of the inverse relationship between US government bonds and AI-focused stocks has strengthened to levels last seen a year ago. It’s a sign the deepening tech selloff is sending investors back into bonds for safety, reviving a haven role that had faded as inflation worries and higher interest rates weighed on Treasuries.
推动这一转变的是对人工智能投资的可持续性及最终回报的担忧，这导致科技股暴跌。这些担忧也正蔓延至更广泛的经济前景，促使交易员下调对今年加息的预期。
Driving the shift are concerns about the sustainability and eventual payoff of artificial intelligence investment, which have sent tech shares tumbling. Those worries are also spilling into the broader economic outlook, prompting traders to dial back expectations for a rate increase this year.
“债券——惊呼——再次发挥了对冲作用，”野村控股公司跨资产策略师Charlie McElligott在一份报告中写道。“市场似乎正在实时重新定价，因人工智能重置而引发美国‘增长恐慌’的概率。”美国国债周四迎来逾一年来最佳单日表现，全线飙升，因为不断加深的AI相关股票抛售、法国市场动荡以及新的中东紧张局势共同作用，使美国政府债务成为焦虑交易员的首选投资。
“Bonds are — gasp — working as your hedge again,” Charlie McElligott, a cross-asset strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc., wrote in a note. “The market seems to be real-time repricing the probabilities of a US ‘growth scare’ off the back of the AI reset.”Treasuries had their best day in more than a year on Thursday, surging across the board as the deepening rout in AI-related shares, market turmoil in France and fresh Middle East tensions all combined to make US government debt the investment of choice for anxious traders.
即使布伦特原油在沙特阿拉伯发生致命袭击后攀升至每桶113美元以上，反弹仍在继续。就在几周前，飙升的能源价格还因激起通胀担忧而重创债券。现在，这也被视为对增长的威胁，增加了对美国债务的需求，并促使交易员将四分之一个百分点加息的预期从12月推迟至1月。
The rally continued even as Brent crude climbed above $113 a barrel following deadly attacks in Saudi Arabia. Just weeks ago, soaring energy prices were hammering bonds by stoking inflation fears. Now, it’s also being seen as a threat to growth, adding to demand for US debt and prompting traders to push back expectations for a quarter-point rate hike to January from December.
美国国债收益率暴跌，短期债务收益率周四下跌多达20个基点。基准10年期收益率跌破关键的5%水平，并在周五亚洲交易时段维持在4.97%左右。
Treasury yields tumbled, with those on shorter-dated debt falling as much as 20 basis points on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year yield dropped below the key 5% level and held around 4.97% in Asian trading Friday.
彭博策略师表示……“随着融资成本上升、算力竞争加剧，投资者正在质疑巨额 AI 资本支出能否产生足够回报”—— 迈克尔·鲍尔，Markets Live 策略师近期收益率上升提升了美国国债的吸引力，在美联储加息且通胀担忧加剧后，给投资者提供了一个极具吸引力的股票替代品。
What Bloomberg Strategists Say... “Investors are questioning whether enormous AI capital spending can generate sufficient returns as financing costs rise and competition across compute intensifies”— Michael Ball, Markets Live strategist The recent increase in yields has boosted the appeal of Treasuries, giving investors a compelling alternative to stocks after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and inflation concerns intensified.
随着 AI 交易回吐涨幅，这种转变变得更加明显，纳斯达克 100 指数周四暴跌 2.9%，费城半导体指数重挫 6.7%，均创下自 6 月以来最大单日跌幅。
That shift has become more pronounced as the AI trade unravels, with the Nasdaq 100 tumbling 2.9% on Thursday and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index sinking 6.7%, their biggest declines since June.
“市场遭遇了油价上涨和 AI 广泛抛售的‘一记重拳’，”Pepperstone Group Ltd. 研究主管克里斯·韦斯顿表示。“技术面破坏实实在在，防御性仓位正在累积。”
“The market has taken a one-two punch from higher oil and a broad AI liquidation,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “The technical damage is real, and defensive positioning is building.”