资产管理公司 Rathbones 正在增持长期限英国政府债券，迹象显示财政大臣约翰·希利将避免其前任预算案所带来的混乱和市场动荡。
Asset Management Ltd. is warming up to longer-maturity UK government debt on signs Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey will avoid the confusion and market ructions that accompanied his predecessors’ budgets.
据多元资产投资主管大卫·库姆斯透露，该公司本周在其 96 亿英镑（128 亿美元）的多元资产基金组合中买入 10 年期英国国债，同时抛售 2 至 5 年期债券。这一举措使其在久期较长、对利率变动和政府政策更敏感的债券上，从低配转为中性配置。
According to David Coombs, head of multi-asset investments, the firm bought 10-year gilts while selling notes due in 2-5 years across its £9.6 billion ($12.8 billion) portfolio of multi-asset funds this week. That’s shifted it from underweight to neutral in longer-duration bonds, which are more sensitive to interest-rate moves and government policy.
库姆斯表示：“此次预算前的信息发布更加有纪律。不像前两次预算案，我们看到了大量泄露。”他在 7 月曾表示，Rathbones 削减了英国国债持仓，以防范新任首相安迪·伯纳姆任命一位倾向于松开财政钱包的财政大臣。他甚至担心会重演前首相特拉斯 2022 年未提供资金来源的减税政策引发的债券市场崩盘。
“Pre-budget messaging has been more disciplined this time around,” Coombs said. “Unlike the previous two budgets where we had plenty of leaks.”In July, Coombs said Rathbones had cut gilt holdings to protect against the possibility that incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham would name a chancellor keen to loosen government purse strings. He even feared a potential replay of ex-PM Liz Truss’s unfunded tax cuts in 2022 that triggered a bond-market rout.
希利将于 10 月 28 日发布预算案。市场预期这将是一场低调的活动，强调财政纪律，给予的优惠很少，且本财年剩余时间英国国债发行量仅有限度增加。
Healey is due to deliver his budget on Oct. 28. Expectations are for a low-key event that stresses fiscal discipline, goes low on giveaways, and features a limited increase in gilt issuance for the rest of the financial year.
伯纳姆和希利这种稳健的做法帮助英国度过了全球债券抛售潮，这对于一个通常承受更广泛撤退冲击的债务市场来说实属罕见。
That steady approach from Burnham and Healey has helped the UK weather the global bond selloff, unusual for a debt market that normally bears the brunt of broader retreats.
自伯纳姆 7 月 20 日上任以来，英国 10 年期基准国债收益率上涨约 30 个基点至 5.33%。同期法国同类债券收益率上涨 113 个基点，美国国债收益率上涨 40 个基点。
Benchmark UK 10-year yields are up around 30 basis points at 5.33% since Burnham took office on July 20. That compares with a 113-basis point rise for their French equivalents and a 40 basis points increase for US Treasury yields.
英国 30 年期国债收益率对政府财政政策最为敏感，同期下跌 3 个基点，表现为发达经济体中最佳。其收益率现报 5.72%，为一个月来最低。
UK 30-year yields, among the most sensitive to government fiscal policy, have fallen three basis points in that timeframe, the best performance among developed economies. At 5.72%, they’re at their lowest in a month.
库姆斯表示，扣除通胀后的实际收益率近 2%，相比股票颇具吸引力。
Real yields — the expected return after inflation — of nearly 2% look attractive compared with equities, Coombs said.
尽管如此，疑虑依然存在，库姆斯表示他并不百分之百确信政府最终能够成功控制开支。因此，“我们不会超配，”他说。
Still, doubts still linger and Coombs says he’s not 100% convinced the government will ultimately manage to rein in spending. As a result, “we are not going overweight,” he said.