Polls showed Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and rightist challenger Flávio Bolsonaro were in effect tied ahead of Sunday’s runoff, with the result potentially coming down to which candidate’s supporters stay away from the ballot box. Whoever comes out on top will have to navigate a tricky balance between maintaining strong ties to China, Brazil’s biggest trading partner, and the US: The last seven elections across Latin America have been won by conservatives friendly to Washington and its crackdown on immigration and drug trafficking.

Both will, however, face the same economic challenge at home — a worsening fiscal outlook and growing difficulty servicing the country’s debt, as well as increasing economic precariousness among much of the population.