马修观点 就在四年前，沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼正处于权力巅峰。他受到中国总统的盛情款待，却冷落了美国总统，同时坐拥源源不断的石油财富，能够将资金倾注于将他最疯狂的想法变为现实。那些日子似乎已是很久以前的事了。
Matthew’s view Just four years ago, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was at the peak of his powers. He was feted by the Chinese president and snubbed the US president all while sitting atop a gusher of oil wealth that allowed him to pour money into trying to turn his wildest ideas into reality. Those days seem a long time ago.
今年对MBS来说本就艰难，穆罕默德王储广为人知的昵称就是MBS。即使在伊朗战争之前，沙特阿拉伯的财政赤字就已扩大，标志性投资项目正在缩减，而全面经济和社会改革带来的“糖分冲击”也在消退。
This year was always going to be tough for MBS, as Prince Mohammed is widely known. Even before the Iran war, Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit was widening signature investment projects were being scaled back, and the sugar rush from the sweeping economic and social reforms was wearing off.
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与伊朗的战争——MBS曾警告反对——使情况雪上加霜。MBS如今面临多线危机：全球能源冲击、地区安全紧急状态以及国内经济前景恶化。三者共同构成一场完美风暴，暴露了他在地区事务中塑造事件的能力的局限。
US President Donald Trump’s war with Iran, which MBS warned against, has made matters worse. MBS now faces crises on multiple fronts: a global energy shock, a regional security emergency, and a deteriorating domestic economic outlook. Together, they form a perfect storm and expose the limits of his ability to shape events in the region.
从石油视角来看，对霍尔木兹海峡和曼德海峡航运的袭击推高了油价，足以抵消出口量下降的影响。但短期收益掩盖了长期风险。尽管做出了英勇努力保持原油流动，但海湾地区作为可靠能源供应商的声誉已受损。中断持续的时间越长，关键能源进口国就越会为没有沙特石油的生活做准备。消费者将寻求替代性碳氢化合物来源，并加速可再生能源投资。结果可能引发全球抢抓石油产量的竞赛，力求尽快多抽石油，届时王国将在冲突结束时，在供过于求和低油价中苦苦争取重获市场份额。
Looking through the prism of oil, the attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb boosted prices enough to offset lower export volumes. But the short-term gains mask a longer-term risk. Despite heroic efforts to keep crude moving, the Gulf’s reputation as a reliable energy provider has been damaged. The longer the disruption lasts, the more key energy importers will prepare for life without Saudi oil. Consumers will seek alternative sources of hydrocarbons and accelerate investments in renewables. The result could spur a global scramble to pump more oil as quickly as possible, leaving the kingdom fighting to win back market share when the conflict ends amid a glut and lower prices.
但那是未来，战争可能正在出现升级迹象，这使得MBS将沙特阿拉伯打造为繁荣中东中心的愿景——一个供国际企业投资、度假者造访、富人购房的地方——变得更难推销。可以肯定的是，正如最近的科威特石油管道交易所示，将全球资本引入某些关键基础设施的项目仍将继续。但持续的不确定性将使王国的多元化推进更难实现。
But that is the future, and the war may be showing signs of escalation, making MBS’s vision of Saudi Arabia as the center of a prosperous Middle East — a place for international firms to invest, holidaymakers to visit, and the wealthy to buy homes — a much tougher sell. To be sure, as the recent Kuwait oil pipelines deal showed, attracting global capital into some critical infrastructure will still go ahead. But sustained uncertainty will make the kingdom’s diversification push harder to pull off.
也门胡塞武装自2009年以来与王国断断续续交战，已展现出在沙特境内深处发动打击的令人震惊的能力，从机场到阿美公司总部，毫不顾及平民生命。居民和潜在访客感到不安。如果与伊朗的战争再次升级，外国高管甚至不愿访问沙特阿拉伯，更不用说投资于该国了。
The Houthis in Yemen, whom the kingdom has been battling on and off since 2009, have demonstrated an alarming ability to strike deep inside Saudi Arabia, from airports to the Aramco head office with no regard for civilian lives. Residents and potential visitors are unnerved. If the war with Iran intensifies again, foreign executives will be reluctant to even visit Saudi Arabia, let alone invest in it.
最后，推动国内经济摆脱石油依赖、建立新产业的努力正在失去动力。在计入合同取消后，政府在NEOM项目上投入约占GDP的8%，已承认代价高昂的失败。2034年男子足球世界杯的计划以及其他大型项目正在缩减。然而，安全危机和更高的燃料成本正推动支出增长速度快于石油收入。政府债务按全球标准仍然较低，但正在攀升。更高的国防开支至关重要，但对经济多元化帮助不大。
Lastly, efforts to diversify the domestic economy away from oil and build new industries are losing steam. After allocating about 8% of GDP to NEOM, once contract cancellations are included, the government has admitted a costly defeat. Plans for the 2034 men’s soccer World Cup are being scaled back as are other giant projects. Yet the security crisis and higher fuel costs are pushing expenditure up faster than oil revenues. Government debt is still low by global standards, but is climbing. Higher defense spending will be vital, but won’t do much for economic diversification.
穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼处境尴尬，直面权力的局限。他试图通过承诺向美国投资、向特朗普家族商业利益注资来拉近与特朗普的关系，却未能在华盛顿换来筹码。尽管利雅得承诺对美投资1万亿美元，特朗普今年3月仍粗鲁地表示，穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼从未想过会“亲我的屁股”，这粗俗地展示了自王储冷遇特朗普前任拜登以来，双方角色已彻底逆转。2023年促成沙特与伊朗和解的中国，要么不愿、要么无力提供帮助。尽管军费开支巨大，沙特武装部队却难以遏制敌对势力。
MBS sits in an uncomfortable position, facing the limits of his power. Efforts to get close to Trump by promising investments into the US and putting money into Trump family business interests haven’t translated to leverage in Washington. Despite Riyadh’s $1 trillion US investment pledge, Trump remarked in March that MBS never imagined he’d be “kissing my ass,” a crude display of how roles have been reversed since the prince snubbed Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden. China, which brokered a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, is either unwilling or unable to help. And despite huge military spending, Saudi forces have struggled to deter their enemies.
王储曾展露雄心，誓要在2030年前改造王国乃至整个地区。这一愿景从未感觉如此遥不可及。值得注意的是，沙特阿拉伯是全球最大的武器买家之一。
The crown prince revealed a bold ambition to transform the kingdom, and the region, by 2030. The vision has never felt further away. Notable Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s top arms buyers in the world.
《金融时报》报道称，尽管拥有庞大军火库，沙特却难以跟上胡塞武装的战术。
its arsenal but has struggled to keep pace with the Houthis’ tactics the Financial Times reported.