美国国家航空航天局（NASA）的安全监督机构——航空航天安全咨询小组（ASAP）向该航天局传达了好消息和坏消息，SpaceX首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）迅速对其中部分内容表示异议。马斯克反驳了该小组据报提出的建议，即可能需要大约22次发射才能支持“星舰”人类着陆系统（HLS）变体在月球着陆。“那数字高得离谱，”马斯克在X平台上回应道。“实际数字将更接近6到8次。”
NASA's safety watchdog, the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), had good news and bad news for the space agency, and SpaceX boss Elon Musk quickly disagreed with some of it. Musk disputed the reported suggestion that approximately 22 launches might be needed to support a landing by the Human Landing System (HLS) variant of Starship on the Moon. "That's way too high," Musk responded on X. "Actual number will be more like 6 to 8."
为“阿尔忒弥斯”计划开发的美国月球着陆器需要在太空中加注燃料，这意味着在宇航员前往月球表面之前，需要额外发射运送推进剂。在“阿波罗”计划时期，一次“土星五号”火箭发射就足以将一艘加满燃料的登月舱送往月球。问题在于，要证明能在更重、更复杂的着陆器所需的规模上，可靠地在航天器之间转移低温推进剂。
The US lunar landers being developed for Artemis require refueling in space, meaning additional launches to deliver propellant before astronauts can head to the surface. During Apollo, a single Saturn V launch was enough to send a fully fueled Lunar Module to the Moon. The problem is demonstrating reliable transfers of cryogenic propellant between spacecraft at the scale these heavier, more complex landers require.
“阿波罗”登月舱使用的是自燃推进剂。迄今为止，SpaceX仅完成了一次“星舰”入轨试飞。无疑还会有更多试飞，但如果该小组引用的发射次数属实，马斯克的火箭团队前路艰险。即使经过范围调整，将“阿尔忒弥斯三号”任务改为2027年在近地轨道演示蓝色起源和SpaceX的月球技术，“阿尔忒弥斯”计划依然雄心勃勃，尤其是考虑到在特朗普总统卸任前让人类登上月球表面的愿望。
Apollo's Lunar Module used hypergolic propellants instead. To date, SpaceX has managed one Starship test flight to orbit. Many more will undoubtedly follow, but if the launch figure cited by the panel is accurate, Musk's rocketeers face a challenging road ahead. Even with the rescoping that made Artemis III a low Earth orbit demonstration of lunar technologies from Blue Origin and SpaceX in 2027, the Artemis program remains ambitious, particularly considering the desire to get humans on the lunar surface before President Trump leaves office.
ASAP赞扬了“阿尔忒弥斯二号”任务和NASA新任局长贾里德·艾萨克曼（Jared Isaacman），但对未来进入近地轨道的途径提出担忧。SpaceX计划逐步淘汰“猎鹰”火箭和“龙”飞船，这可能会使国际空间站（ISS）运营的任何延期及其离轨飞行器的发射变得复杂。然后是波音的“灾难飞船”“星际客机”。上个月曾有可能在2026年12月左右进行无人发射的说法，但该小组现在将最早可能的发射时间定在2027年1月中旬，且进度表仍在审查中。
ASAP praised Artemis II and NASA's new administrator, Jared Isaacman, but raised concerns about future access to low Earth orbit. SpaceX's plans to phase out Falcon rockets and Dragon spacecraft could complicate any extension of International Space Station (ISS) operations and the launch of its deorbit vehicle. Then there is Boeing's Calamity Capsule, Starliner. Last month, a possible uncrewed launch date around December 2026 was mooted, but the panel now puts the earliest possible launch in mid-January 2027, with the schedule still under review.
“龙”飞船任务的终止可能会使“星际客机”成为将宇航员往返国际空间站的唯一商业选择，这并非美国国家航空航天局（NASA）所期望的冗余备份，也再次凸显了商业企业并非必须无限期提供服务，且可在合同结束时改变方向。美国“龙”飞船货运版的唯一替代方案也是诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司的“天鹅座”飞船。国际货运替代方案则是日本宇宙航空研究开发机构（JAXA）的HTV-X飞船。
An end to Dragon operations could leave Starliner as the only commercial option for getting astronauts to and from the ISS, not quite the redundancy NASA hoped for, and a stark reminder that commercial businesses aren't required to provide services indefinitely and can change direction when their contracts end. There is also only one US alternative to the cargo variant of Dragon: Northrop Grumman's Cygnus. An international cargo alternative is JAXA's HTV-X.
俄罗斯继续使用“联盟”号飞船运送宇航员、用“进步”号货运飞船运送货物，但NASA长期以来一直在寻求美国替代方案。一份书面报告预计将于明年初提交，无疑将包含大量观察和建议。®
Russia continues to carry crews on Soyuz spacecraft and cargo on Progress freighters, but NASA has long sought US alternatives. A written report is due early next year, doubtless with plenty of observations and recommendations. ®