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“西方拦不住我”:俄罗斯尾随一颗与乌克兰有关的美国卫星,太空战升温‘The West can’t stop me’: Space wars heat up as Russia tails a Ukraine-linked US satellite

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基辅,乌克兰 —— 美国周三在联合国指责俄罗斯,称其上周故意将一颗任务未公开的俄罗斯军事卫星“危险地”靠近一颗据信服务于乌克兰的美国注册卫星,美国官员誓言将捍卫美国在太空的利益。

KYIV, Ukraine — Washington blamed Moscow at the United Nations on Wednesday for deliberately moving a Russian military satellite with an undisclosed mission “dangerously” close last week to a U.S.-registered satellite believed to serve Ukraine, with officials vowing to defend American interests in space.

这颗名为“宇宙-2612”的俄罗斯卫星花费两周多时间机动靠近“ICEYE-X36”,后者是一颗雷达卫星,由芬兰公司ICEYE的美国分支机构运营,该公司通过其部分航天器向乌克兰军方提供影像。随后,“宇宙-2612”在10月17日的周末里,以最接近三分之一英里(约536米)的距离尾随该卫星。

The Russian satellite, Cosmos 2612, spent more than two weeks maneuvering toward ICEYE-X36, a radar satellite operated by the American arm of Finnish company ICEYE that supplies imagery to Ukraine’s military through some of its spacecraft, then shadowed it from as close as a third of a mile through the weekend of Oct. 17.

美国国务次官托马斯·G·迪纳诺称俄罗斯卫星的行为具有“威胁性”,并表示俄罗斯一直在“故意机动,危险地接近一颗商业卫星,这种行为与在轨武器操作一致”。太空历史学家、前美国国家航空航天局(NASA)天体物理学家乔纳森·麦克道威尔表示,他认为这是近地轨道上两颗活跃卫星在未经其中一方所有者批准的情况下首次实现会合。

U.S. Undersecretary of State Thomas G. DiNanno called the Russian satellite’s behavior “threatening,” and said the country had been “intentionally maneuvering dangerously close to a commercial satellite, behaviors consistent with on-orbit weapons operations.”Space historian and former NASA astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell said that he believed it is the first rendezvous in low Earth orbit between two active satellites without one owner’s approval.

迪纳诺周三在X平台上写道:“‘宇宙-2612’一直在‘故意机动,危险地接近一颗商业卫星’,美国‘将继续保障和捍卫美国在太空、从太空以及通往太空的关键国家安全利益’。” 这次近距离遭遇发生在美国空军部长特罗伊·梅因克公开证实美国拥有在轨武器、以及太空军选定两家公司建造空间侦察卫星几周之后。此前还有报道称,在白宫命令下,亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克降低了乌克兰依赖的军用级“星链”速度,导致该国一些关键防空武器失效。

Cosmos 2612 has been “intentionally maneuvering dangerously close to a commercial satellite,” Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno wrote on X on Wednesday, adding that the United States “will continue to secure and defend American vital national security interests in, from, and to space.”The close encounter came weeks after Air Force Secretary Troy Meink publicly confirmed that the U.S. has weapons in orbit and the Space Force picked two companies to build space-to-space reconnaissance satellites. It also followed reports that trillionaire Elon Musk — under White House orders — slowed the military-grade Starlink that Ukraine relies on, rendering some of the country’s essential air defense weapons useless.

这一行动符合俄罗斯针对欧洲和美国更广泛的恐吓行动,让俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京能够“戳西方的眼睛,看着西方无动于衷”,战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)航空航天安全项目副主任克莱顿·斯沃普表示。

The operation fits a wider Russian campaign of intimidation against Europe and the U.S. that lets Russian President Vladimir Putin “poke the West in the eye and watch the West do nothing,” according to Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

斯沃普周三在CSIS关于此次遭遇的小组讨论中补充道:“它们证明了一个观点——西方无法阻止我。”

“They prove a point – the West can’t stop me,” Swope added Wednesday during a CSIS panel on the encounter.

据总部位于弗吉尼亚州的Integrity ISR公司战略与发展高级副总裁格雷格·吉林格表示,随着美国及其盟友越来越多地依赖商业能力维护国家安全,卫星等关键资产已“成为可被对手利用的脆弱点”,他也在CSIS小组上发言。

As the U.S. and its allies increasingly rely on commercial capabilities for national security, key assets like satellites have “become vulnerabilities that can be exploited by our adversary,” according to Greg Gillinger, senior vice president of strategy and development at Virginia-based Integrity ISR, who also spoke on the CSIS panel.

专家表示,可能发生的卫星攻击影响可能远超单一公司或国家,因为商业卫星如今承载了军队作战所依赖的大量图像和连接服务。马斯克的星链在乌克兰的服务放缓表明,当这种接入在毫无预警的情况下被限制时,军事力量会多么迅速地遭受损害——以及局部地缘政治冲突多么容易演变为全球安全危机。

The impact of a possible satellite attack could reach well beyond one company or country, since commercial satellites now carry much of the imagery and connectivity militaries fight with, experts said. Musk’s Starlink slowdown in Ukraine showed how quickly a military force can suffer when that access is throttled without notice — and how easily local geopolitical conflicts can explode into global security crises.

据Integrity ISR的通讯报道,10月12日,向美国军方联合商业行动中心提供数据的商业跟踪系统标记了可能的会合,当时“宇宙-2612”号卫星滑入了ICEYE-X36卫星的轨道,高度约为地面上方345英里(约555公里)。

On Oct. 12, commercial trackers feeding the U.S. military’s Joint Commercial Operations cell flagged the possible rendezvous when Cosmos 2612 slid into ICEYE-X36’s orbit roughly 345 miles above Earth, according to Integrity ISR’s newsletter.

跟踪公司LeoLabs在一份声明中表示,据CNN报道,10月15日和16日,俄罗斯卫星从ICEYE-X36后方200多英里(约320多公里)处移动到约3英里(约4.8公里)距离,随后进一步逼近并保持位置直到周末。

On Oct. 15 and 16, the Russian satellite moved from more than 200 miles behind ICEYE-X36 to roughly 3 miles away before moving in closer and holding position through the weekend, tracking firm LeoLabs said in a statement reported by CNN.

吉林格表示,两颗卫星的飞行速度均约为每秒4英里(7公里),因此让两个物体“相距一百米甚至一公里”就“相当于飞机以极其紧密的编队飞行”。

Both satellites travel at roughly 4 miles (7 kilometers) per second, so getting two objects “within a hundred meters or even a kilometer” of each other is “the equivalent of flying in a very tight formation in an aircraft,” Gillinger said.

“俄罗斯并非意外进入X36卫星一公里范围内,”他说。“这表明其有意图,他们在传递信号。”据1月份的一份声明称,ICEYE公司的雷达卫星能穿透云层、烟雾和黑暗,该公司扩大了与乌克兰军方的合作,承诺继续提供“按战术时间表”的图像。不过,该公司尚未证实其哪些卫星为基辅服务。

“Russia didn’t accidentally get within a kilometer of X36,” he said. “It is an indication of intent that they’re sending a message.”ICEYE, whose radar satellites see through clouds, smoke and darkness, expanded cooperation with Ukraine’s military, pledging continued imagery “on tactical timelines,” according to a January statement. However, the company has not confirmed which of its satellites serve Kyiv.

自全面入侵第一年起,莫斯科就警告称,协助乌克兰的西方商业卫星可能成为合法军事目标。

Moscow has warned since the first year of its full-scale invasion that Western commercial satellites helping Ukraine could become legitimate military targets.

ICEYE公司发言人本周早些时候告诉《空天力量》杂志,该公司“知悉事态并正在密切跟踪”,其“星座架构旨在实现连续性和韧性”。

ICEYE said it is “aware of the situation and tracking it closely” and that its “constellation architecture is designed for continuity and resilience,” a spokesperson told Air & Space Forces Magazine earlier this week.

俄罗斯实施卫星机动的意图仍不清楚。据美国空间技术公司LeoLabs称,可能的目的范围包括情报收集、近距离检查、胁迫,以及为未来的反卫星行动铺垫基础。

Russia’s intent behind the satellite maneuvers remains unclear. According to LeoLabs, an American space technology company, possible aims range from intelligence collection and close inspection to coercion and groundwork for future operations against satellites.

该公司表示,这些机动展示了可用于“检查、表征、跟踪或潜在干扰另一艘航天器”的能力,尽管它们“并不确立敌意意图”。

The maneuvers demonstrated capabilities that could be used to “inspect, characterize, shadow, or potentially interfere with another spacecraft,” though they “do not establish hostile intent,” the company said.

分析人士目前尚无法判断莫斯科是计划发动攻击后又改变主意,还是完全出于其他目的在附近轨道运行。

Analysts could not yet say whether Moscow planned an attack and then reversed course, or was orbiting nearby for another purpose entirely.

斯沃普解释说,俄罗斯可能在为未来的攻击进行“演练”,或者该卫星可能携带了武器,从干扰器到激光再到弹射物。

Russia could have been doing “a dry run” for a future attack, or the satellite could have been carrying a weapon, from a jammer to a laser to a projectile, Swope explained.

“意图是炸毁卫星吗?不是,”他说。“意图是向卫星施加某种形式的能量?很可能……除非你想做一些涉及向该卫星施加能量的事情,否则我不知道为什么你需要以这种方式、如此接近地机动。”俄罗斯卫星此后已后撤,但距离不远。

“Was the intent to blow up the satellite? No,” he said. “Was the intent to put some type of energy on the satellite? Probably… I don’t know why you’d need to maneuver in this way, this close, unless you wanted to do something that involved putting energy on that satellite.”The Russian satellite has since pulled back, but not far.

周三,它再次飞行在 ICEYE-X36 的高度上,在其后方约 250 英里(400 公里)处,并能“在他们选择的时间和地点轻易再次缩小这一差距”,吉林格说。

It was again flying at ICEYE-X36’s altitude on Wednesday, holding roughly 250 miles (400 kilometers) behind it, and could “easily close that gap again at the time and place of their choosing,” Gillinger said.

根据 Integrity ISR 的说法,俄罗斯可能在几周内试图接近另一颗 ICEYE 卫星,因为同一次发射的另外两颗卫星很快将与第二颗卫星 ICEYE-X37 的轨道对齐。

Russia could try to approach another ICEYE satellite within weeks, as two more satellites from the same launch will soon line up with the orbit of a second satellite, ICEYE-X37, according to Integrity ISR.

吉林格说:“如果它们移动过去,我们可能会看到另一种情况,即另一颗商业卫星被这些俄罗斯卫星紧随其后。”

If they move in, “we could see another scenario where another commercial satellite is closely trailed by one of these Russian satellites,” Gillinger said.

撤退始于 10 月 18 日,即特朗普总统签署行政命令豁免对俄罗斯的关税和大多数经济限制两天后。

The retreat began Oct. 18, two days after President Donald Trump signed an executive order waiving tariffs and most economic restrictions on Russia.

斯沃普说,特朗普放宽制裁的举措“可能是普京说‘你知道,现在不是加剧与美国紧张关系的时候。也许我们应该暂停这次行动’的一个原因。”“如果你即将在某事上达成协议,为什么要拿它冒险?”他说。近几个月来,太空冲突的可能性一直在增加。

Swope said Trump’s move to ease sanctions “could have been a reason why Putin said, ‘You know, now’s not the time to exacerbate tensions specifically with the United States. Maybe we should pause this operation.’”“If you’re getting close to a deal on something, why jeopardize that?” he said. The potential for a conflict in space has been growing in recent months.

根据 2025 年一次战争推演场景的结论,如果俄罗斯用轨道上的核武器威胁美国军事和商业卫星,华盛顿“似乎缺乏应对选项”。

Washington “appears to lack response options” if Russia threatened U.S. military and commercial satellites with a nuclear weapon in orbit, according to the conclusions from a 2025 war-game scenario where fictional Russian space objects threatened American interests.

没有公开迹象表明“宇宙-2612”号携带核武器,但斯沃普说,目前也没有国际公认的规则来判断此类机动是否应被视为敌对行为——或者在回应时应遵循什么国际标准。

There is no public indication that Cosmos 2612 carries a nuclear weapon, but Swope said that there is also still no internationally recognized rule for determining if a maneuver like this one should be considered hostile — or what international standards should be followed in a response.

他说:“尽管我们都能找出充分理由说明这是敌对行为,但没有可以指向的规范。”

“Even though we all can make a good case on why this was [hostile], there’s no norm that you could point to,” he said.

斯沃普说,在没有明确应对计划或对侵略行为有真正后果的情况下,这种威胁性的卫星机动“实际上只是一个俄罗斯可以随时开关的水龙头”,用来增加对对手的压力。他补充说:“俄罗斯将再次开启它。”

Without a clear response plan or real consequences for aggression, menacing satellite moves like this one are “literally just a spigot that Russia could turn on and off” to increase pressure on adversaries, Swope said. Russia, he added, “is going to turn it on again.”

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