
特朗普与弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基之间的关系从未友好过,甚至从未稳定过。但上周,这一关系跌至新低。特朗普呼吁乌克兰人民选出新总统,称泽连斯基比弗拉基米尔·普京“更难打交道”。他指责泽连斯基拖延乌克兰与俄罗斯的战争。“他说他想解决问题,但他并没有,”特朗普对Newsmax表示,却只字未提近五年前发动这场战争的是普京。
Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky have never enjoyed a warm relationship, or even a stable one. But last week, it hit a new low. Trump called on the Ukrainian people to elect a new president, describing Zelensky as “more difficult to deal with” than Vladimir Putin. He accused Zelensky of prolonging Ukraine’s war with Russia. “He says he wants to settle, but he doesn’t,” Trump told Newsmax, without mentioning that it was Putin who started the war nearly five years ago.
“泽连斯基对我们来说不是好人。”这两位领导人或许正处于个人关系的最低谷,但与此同时,美国情报界在帮助乌克兰抵御俄罗斯侵略方面的努力从未松懈。凭借美国提供的情报,乌克兰军队已在俄罗斯纵深地区发动打击。美国间谍卫星则对来袭的导弹和无人机提供预警。在实地工作的美方人员中,“中央情报局处于主导地位,”一位经常前往乌克兰的退役高级军官告诉我。
“Zelensky is not a good guy for us to deal with.”The two leaders may find themselves at a personal nadir, but all the while, the U.S. intelligence community has shown no letup in its fight to defend Ukraine against Russian aggression. Armed with information that the U.S. provides, Ukraine’s military has launched strikes deep inside Russia. And U.S. spy satellites provide early warning about incoming missiles and drones. Among U.S. personnel on the ground, “the CIA is in the lead,” a retired senior officer who travels frequently to Ukraine told me.
如果说有什么变化的话,那就是在中央情报局的帮助下,乌克兰人打击俄罗斯的手段已经高明到了让特朗普不满的程度。
If anything, the Ukrainians, with the CIA’s help, have gotten too good at hurting Russia for Trump’s taste.
本届政府的政策存在深刻矛盾,或许没有人比中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫更清楚这一点。他脚踏两个世界:一方面为一位与乌克兰领导层持续不和的总统提供建议,另一方面领导着一个对乌克兰生存之战至关重要的机构。一位在波罗的海地区与美方密切合作、共同对抗俄罗斯影响力的情报官员告诉我,尽管从特朗普的言论中根本看不出来,但中情局目前的行动比拜登政府时期“激进得多”。
The administration’s policy is deeply conflicted, and perhaps no one understands that better than John Ratcliffe, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency. He has a foot in two worlds: advising a president who’s continuously at odds with Ukraine’s leadership, and running an agency that’s essential to Ukraine’s war for survival. One intelligence officer in the Baltics, who works closely with the Americans to counter Russian influence, told me that, though you’d never know it from Trump’s rhetoric, the CIA’s operations are now “much more aggressive” than they were during the Biden administration.
乌克兰人不认为拉特克利夫是他们的支持者。他们知道他为一位反复无常的老板工作,如果特朗普兑现最近的威胁,除非乌克兰停止攻击俄罗斯炼油厂,否则将停止情报支持,拉特克利夫将执行该命令。但拉特克利夫上任时承诺,在特朗普的支持下,将回归该机构的间谍和秘密行动根源。目前,该战场仍延伸至乌克兰。
The Ukrainians don’t see Ratcliffe as their advocate. They know he works for a mercurial boss, and that if Trump were to follow through on his recent threat to halt intelligence support unless Ukraine stops attacking Russian oil refineries, Ratcliffe would carry out the order. But Ratcliffe came into office promising, with Trump’s support, to return to the agency’s roots of espionage and clandestine operations. For now, that battlefield still extends to Ukraine.
2014年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚后,中央情报局帮助建立了现代乌克兰情报体系。部分由于这段悠久的历史,基辅官员表示,他们信任拉特克利夫会向特朗普讲述战争的真相,而不仅仅是总统想听到的话。
The CIA helped build the modern Ukrainian intelligence apparatus after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Partly owing to that long history, officials in Kyiv said they trust Ratcliffe to tell Trump the truth about the war, and not simply what the president wants to hear.
我在美国和欧洲采访的十多名现任和前任情报官员描述拉特克利夫——他在特朗普第一个任期内担任国家情务总监——对俄罗斯不仅对乌克兰,而且对美国及其盟友构成的威胁看得很清楚。(大多数人要求匿名,以便就中央情报局局长一职自由发表意见。)在这方面,拉特克利夫在政府中并非孤例。马可·鲁比奥在2016年竞选总统时,曾将普京称为“流氓和暴徒”。
More than a dozen current and former intelligence officials I spoke with in the U.S. and Europe described Ratcliffe, who served as the director of national intelligence in Trump’s first term, as clear-eyed about the threat Russia poses not just to Ukraine, but to the United States and its allies. (Most people shared their views on the condition of anonymity, to speak freely about the CIA director.) In that respect, Ratcliffe is not alone in the administration. Marco Rubio, when he ran for president in 2016, called Putin a “gangster and a thug.”
皮特·赫格塞斯在担任电视主持人时,曾称他为“疯子”,并称其有征服欧洲的野心。但如今,作为拥有自己政治野心的高级内阁成员,他们已与总统的言论保持一致。
And Pete Hegseth, when he was a television host, called him a “maniac” with ambitions to conquer Europe. But now, as senior Cabinet members with their own political ambitions, they have aligned themselves with the president’s rhetoric.
拉特克利夫是一位较为低调的顾问。他很少接受采访或发表演讲。他在社交媒体上几乎不发帖。无需在新闻发布会和有线电视节目中对莫斯科采取更具和解性的语气,他得以在私下里提供更坦诚的建议。“他见多识广,了解真实情况,”一位直接与中央情报局合作的高级乌克兰情报官员告诉我。“他们驻扎在这里的人员对我们支持很好。他们是绝对的专业人士。”该官员表示,拉特克利夫将比特朗普目前的特使贾里德·库什纳和史蒂夫·维特科夫更有效地担任和平谈判代表。
Ratcliffe is a quieter adviser. He gives few interviews or speeches. He rarely posts on social media. Without needing to take a more conciliatory tone toward Moscow at press conferences and on cable, Ratcliffe is free to offer more candid advice in private. “He is well informed and understands the real situation,” one senior Ukrainian intelligence official who works directly with the CIA told me. “Their people stationed here support us very well. They are absolute professionals.”The official suggested that Ratcliffe would be a more effective peace negotiator than Trump’s current envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.
拉特克利夫拒绝了我的采访请求,并未表现出转换工作的意愿。他又何必呢?他在特朗普圈子里占据着罕见的位置——始终在场,(到目前为止)从未失宠。他在白宫花费许多工作时间。他与总统经常一起打高尔夫球。拉特克利夫在过去两年中就特朗普一些最具影响力的外交政策决策提供了建议,包括决定对伊朗开战。
Ratcliffe, who declined my request for an interview, has shown no inclination to switch jobs. And why would he? He enjoys a rare position in Trumpland—always in the room and (so far) never on the outs. He spends many working hours at the White House. He and the president regularly play golf together. Ratcliffe has advised Trump on some of his most consequential foreign-policy decisions of the last two years, including the choice to go to war in Iran.
图尔西·加巴德是特朗普第二任期的首任国家情报总监,她与特朗普核心圈子相距甚远,以至于当总统正在为入侵委内瑞拉做最后准备时,她却在夏威夷海滩上发布自己的照片。了解他们的人告诉我,拉特克利夫对加巴德在社交媒体上煽动争议、散布阴谋论的习惯感到恼火。她对国家安全最持久的贡献是削弱了国家情报总监办公室,将人员数量削减了三分之一以上。
Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s first DNI during his second term, was so far removed from his inner circle that when the president was making final preparations to invade Venezuela, she was posting photos of herself from a beach in Hawaii. Ratcliffe was exasperated by Gabbard’s habit of stoking controversies and peddling conspiracy theories on social media, people who know them told me. Her most enduring contribution to national security was to gut the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, slashing the number of personnel by more than a third.
随着国家情报总监办公室规模和影响力的下降,由拉特克利夫负责的中央情报局重新夺回了情报界中心的传统角色。从名义上看,总统的首席情报顾问是国家情报总监。但实际上,是拉特克利夫。
As the ODNI has declined in size and relevance, the CIA, with Ratcliffe in charge, has reclaimed its traditional role at the center of the intelligence community. On paper, the president’s chief intelligence adviser is the director of national intelligence. In practice, it’s Ratcliffe.
拉特克利夫或任何情报负责人对特朗普实际拥有多大影响力,取决于总统是否愿意听取意见。在这方面,特朗普的记录好坏参半。(特朗普并未完全听从他们关于伊朗将如何回应美军袭击的警告。)但曾与拉特克利夫共事的人士告诉我,他认为自己的职责是向总统提供建议,而非制定政策。他可以解释潜在行动的后果,正如去年他在帮助特朗普权衡轰炸伊朗核设施的利弊时所做的那样。
How much influence Ratcliffe, or any intelligence leader, actually has over Trump depends on the president’s willingness to listen. And that record is mixed. (Trump didn’t exactly heed their warnings about how Iran would respond to American attacks.) But people who’ve worked for Ratcliffe told me he believes that his job is to advise the president, not to make policy. He can explain the consequences of potential actions, as he did when he helped Trump weigh the costs and benefits of bombing Iranian nuclear facilities last year.
拉特克利夫曾表示,他认为伊朗正在囤积核材料以制造武器。但他当时没有、将来也不会主张总统选择某种特定方案,而非另一种,曾与他共事的人士告诉我。
Ratcliffe had said he believed Iran was hoarding nuclear material in order to make a weapon. But he did not, and will not, advocate that the president pick one approach over the other, people who have worked with him told me.
在这方面,拉特克利夫的表现与大多数前任中情局局长别无二致。这让一些怀疑论者——包括机构内部人士——松了一口气,他们原本担心他可能会效仿其他特朗普高级官员,诋毁下属或利用职权加剧文化战争。2014年,拉特克利夫当选得克萨斯州一个极度保守选区的联邦众议员。在关于联邦调查局调查俄罗斯干预大选的电视听证会上,他指出该调查更多是出于政治敌意,而非真正关心外国情报威胁,从而引起了特朗普的注意。
In that respect, Ratcliffe has turned out to be like most of the CIA directors who preceded him. And that comes as some relief to skeptics—including inside the agency—who worried that he might follow the example of other top Trump officials who have vilified their employees or used their office to exacerbate culture wars. Elected to Congress from a deeply conservative Texas district in 2014, Ratcliffe got Trump’s attention during televised hearings about the FBI’s investigation of Russian election interference, which he suggested was motivated more by political animus than genuine concern about foreign-intelligence threats.
2020年,他加入特朗普政府,出任国家情报总监。拉特克利夫依然是特朗普的忠诚拥护者。但与加巴德、赫格塞斯或联邦调查局局长帕特尔相比,他对情报界的批评相对克制,主要集中在奥巴马时代的领导层及其所谓的反特朗普偏见上,而非针对现任员工。
He joined the Trump administration as DNI in 2020. Ratcliffe is still a Trump loyalist. But compared with Gabbard, Hegseth, or FBI Director Kash Patel, he is comparatively restrained in his criticism of the intelligence community, focusing mostly on Obama-era leaders and their alleged anti-Trump bias, instead of on his current employees.
“我一直觉得他是个干活的马,不是个表演的马,”一位曾与拉特克利夫共事的前官员对我说。他不会在总部大楼里闲逛与员工聊天。在他任职初期,他明显缺席兰利,却经常出现在白宫,这让一些中央情报局官员质疑他的优先事项在哪里,现任和前任官员告诉我。但官员们争取与总统会面并不罕见。而且,他与特朗普的关系以及低调的作风,很可能帮助阻止了总统对该机构发起攻击。
“I’ve always thought he was a workhorse, not a show horse,” a former official who worked with Ratcliffe told me. He doesn’t roam the halls of headquarters to chat with staff. In the early days of his tenure, his conspicuous absences from Langley and his constant presence at the White House made some CIA officers question where his priorities lay, current and former officials told me. But it’s not unusual for directors to covet face time with the president. And his relationship with Trump and low-profile manner have probably helped keep the president from attacking the agency. (Gina Haspel, a career CIA officer who served as director in Trump’s first term, successfully pursued the same strategy, current and former officials noted.)
(现任和前任官员指出,在特朗普第一个任期担任中央情报局局长的职业官员吉娜·哈斯佩尔,也成功采取了同样的策略。)中央情报局在乌克兰的成功已成为一个问题——至少从特朗普的角度来看。对俄罗斯炼油厂的持续攻击已经削弱了其经济,并扼杀了普京的战争机器。国际能源署估计,在今年前八个月,乌克兰平均每三天就攻击一次炼油厂。
The CIA’s success in Ukraine has become a problem—at least from Trump’s perspective. Relentless attacks on Russian oil refineries have hobbled its economy and choked Putin’s war machine. The International Energy Agency estimates that in the first eight months of this year, Ukraine hit a refinery on average once every three days.
经济学家表示,伊朗限制通过霍尔木兹海峡的航运推高了柴油成本。但特朗普将价格飞涨归咎于对俄罗斯炼油厂的破坏,并希望乌克兰的攻击停止。
Economists say that Iran’s restriction of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has driven up the cost of diesel. But Trump blames the damage to Russian refineries for the spiking prices, and he wants the Ukrainian attacks to end.
10月9日,当基辅和其他欧洲首都的官员在迈阿密与特朗普的特使举行和平会谈时,特朗普总统宣布,普京刚刚同意开始在全球市场销售俄罗斯柴油。距离中期选举不到四周,他在Truth Social上发帖称柴油价格将“以创纪录的数字、快速下降!”,听起来兴高采烈。特朗普的宣布让谈判代表感到惊讶,三位知情人士告诉我。他的一些顾问曾敦促他推迟与普京通话,直到有具体的和平提议供他回应,他们认为,如果特朗普放松制裁却没有换取任何对等承诺,他会显得软弱。普京没有做出任何承诺。
On October 9, as officials from Kyiv and other European capitals met with Trump’s envoys in Miami for peace talks, the president announced that Putin had just agreed to start selling Russian diesel on the global market. With the midterms less than four weeks away, he sounded jubilant when he posted on Truth Social that diesel prices would be “COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!”Trump’s announcement surprised the negotiators, three people with knowledge of the talks told me. Some of his advisers had urged him to hold off on speaking with Putin until there was a concrete peace proposal for him to respond to, concluding that Trump would look weak if he relaxed sanctions but came away with no reciprocal commitments. Putin made none.
特朗普似乎认为,悬挂燃料收入的前景以振兴俄罗斯经济,就能让普京重返谈判桌。但多年来,美国情报界一直评估认为,普京之所以继续战斗,尽管付出了巨大的人员和金钱损失,是因为他认为自己会赢——如果不是通过直接的军事胜利,就是通过耗尽乌克兰盟友的支持。为此,俄罗斯在过去几个月来升级了对欧洲的“混合战争”,策划针对商业货运飞机的破坏行动,干扰通信,并用无人机探测北约防空系统。
Trump seemed to believe that dangling the prospect of fuel revenue to resuscitate Russia’s economy could bring Putin back to the table. But for years now, the U.S. intelligence community has assessed that Putin keeps fighting, despite an enormous loss of lives and money, because he thinks he will win—if not through an outright military victory, then by exhausting the support of Ukraine’s allies. To that end, Russia in recent months has escalated its “hybrid warfare” against Europe, plotting sabotage on commercial cargo aircraft, jamming communications, and probing NATO air defenses with drones.
欧洲情报官员告诉我,他们担心普京甚至可能派兵越过与爱沙尼亚的边境,就像他在2014年克里米亚所做的那样,当时出现了所谓的“小绿人”,他们摘除了军事徽章。
European intelligence officials told me they fear that Putin might even send forces across the border with Estonia, as he did in Crimea in 2014 when so-called little green men appeared, stripped of their military insignia.
今年8月,特朗普曾尝试用一种更隐蔽的策略来结束这场战争。知情人士告诉我,他派拉特克利夫前往莫斯科,拉特克利夫在那里会见了安全部门的同行,并阐述了中情局对战争走向的看法。结论是:没有人正在获胜。俄罗斯军队未能取得有意义的进展,但乌克兰也未能将俄罗斯军队驱逐出其领土。这算不上什么秘密分析。但拉特克利夫的出现本身就传递了一个信息。
Back in August, Trump tried a subtler tactic to bring the war to a close. He dispatched Ratcliffe to Moscow, where he met with his counterparts in the security services and laid out the agency’s view about how the war was going, people familiar with the meeting told me. The upshot: No one was winning. Russia’s military has failed to make meaningful advances, but Ukraine has not expelled Russian forces from its territory. That’s hardly a secret analysis. But Ratcliffe’s presence sent a message of its own.
这位局长使用的是一条非正式称为“渠道”的沟通线路,它允许俄罗斯和美国的间谍坦诚交谈,远离媒体的审视和政客的作秀。普京作为一名前克格勃官员,会明白拉特克利夫不是以外交使节的身份而来,而是作为一名间谍同行,带着他认为普京需要听到的信息。
The director was using a line of communication informally known as “the channel,” which allows Russian and American spies to talk candidly, away from the scrutiny of the press or the grandstanding of politicians. Putin, an ex-KGB officer, would understand that Ratcliffe had come not as a diplomatic envoy but as a fellow spy, with a message he felt was important for Putin to hear.
拉特克利夫从未与普京会面;这不是“渠道”的运作方式。但一名西方情报官员告诉我,俄罗斯情报负责人有义务记录下中情局局长告诉他们的任何内容,即使他们试图一口回绝。美国及其盟友长期以来一直怀疑,普京的顾问可能在俄罗斯在乌克兰获胜的可能性上误导了他。如果拉特克利夫能帮助说服普京,让他相信自己追求的是一个注定失败的事业,也许他最终会坐到谈判桌前。
Ratcliffe never met with Putin; that’s not how the channel works. But the Russian intelligence chiefs would have been obliged to document whatever the CIA director told them, even if they tried to dismiss it out of hand, a Western intelligence official told me. The U.S. and its allies have long suspected that Putin’s advisers may be misleading him about Russia’s chances of success in Ukraine. If Ratcliffe could help convince Putin that he was pursuing a lost cause, perhaps he’d finally come to the table.
在特朗普政府的所有官员中,拉特克利夫处于独一无二的位置来传递这一信息。没有人比在乌克兰工作、在总部监控战事的中情局官员更了解战争的状态和其中的利害关系。
Among all the officials in the Trump administration, Ratcliffe was uniquely situated to deliver that message. No one knows the state of the war, and the stakes involved, better than the CIA officers who are working in Ukraine and monitoring the fight from headquarters.
一位了解谈话情况的消息人士告诉我的同事西蒙·舒斯特,今年9月,拉特克利夫曾向泽连斯基通报他的莫斯科之行,当时两人的飞机都在爱尔兰经停加油。一名美国官员告诉我,那次会面完全是偶然发生的。但它显示出,乌克兰领导人和中情局局长有能力在短时间内进行坦诚的讨论。
In September, Ratcliffe briefed Zelensky about his trip to Moscow when their planes were both in Ireland for refueling stops, a source familiar with the conversation told my colleague Simon Shuster. A U.S. official told me that the meeting took place entirely by happenstance. But it demonstrated the ability for Ukrainian leaders and the CIA director to have candid discussions on short notice.
上周,乌克兰体会到了美国情报支持减弱可能是什么样子。知情人士告诉我,俄罗斯导弹猛烈袭击基辅之际,有报道称“星链”卫星网络和美国早期预警系统出现中断,这使乌克兰无法发现一些来袭的俄罗斯飞行物,并限制了其拦截能力。这位乌克兰情报官员说,他指责美国人,但也有证据表明,技术故障是至少部分来袭导弹未能被拦截的原因。官方上,美国人还没有关闭情报阀门,尽管特朗普随时可能采取行动。
Last week, Ukraine got a taste of what diminished U.S. intelligence support might look like. Russian missiles pounded Kyiv as reports emerged about disruptions to the Starlink satellite network and U.S. early-warning systems, which blinded Ukraine to some incoming Russian projectiles and limited its ability to intercept them, people familiar with the matter told me. The Ukrainian intelligence official said he blamed the Americans, but there’s also evidence that technical failures were responsible for the failure to intercept at least some of the incoming missiles. Officially, the Americans haven’t yet turned off the intelligence spigot, although Trump could act at any time.
曾与拉特克利夫共事的人告诉我,如果特朗普这样做,无论中情局总部有多少疑虑,他都不会游说总统改变主意。
If Trump were to do so, people who have worked with Ratcliffe tell me that he wouldn’t lobby the president to change his mind, no matter the misgivings at CIA headquarters.
在2025年的提名听证会上,拉特克利夫承诺将中央情报局带回他所认为的核心使命。“我们将根据总统的指示开展秘密行动,去别人无法去的地方,做别人无法做的事,”他说,并对在场收听的中情局官员表示,“如果这一切听起来正是你们报名参军时所期盼的,那就系好安全带,准备大显身手。如果不是,那该是时候另谋高就了。”
At his confirmation hearing in 2025, Ratcliffe pledged to get the CIA back to what he considers its core mission. “We will conduct covert action at the direction of the president, going places no one else can go and doing things no one else can do,” he said, and told CIA officers listening that “if all of this sounds like what you signed up for, then buckle up and get ready to make a difference. If it doesn’t, then it’s time to find a new line of work.”
许多人采纳了拉特克利夫的建议。虽然中情局不公开人员数字,但现任和前任官员告诉我,他们从未在职业生涯中见过如此大规模的退休和辞职潮。甚至有人在即将获得重大晋升之际选择离职。高级职位的空缺可能不得不由资历较浅的官员来填补。
Many people have taken Ratcliffe up on his suggestion. Although the CIA doesn’t disclose personnel figures, current and former officers told me they have never seen such a large number of retirements and resignations in their career. Some have even left on the verge of a major promotion. Vacancies in senior posts might have to be filled by less experienced officers.
当中情局官员辞职时,他们的同事会聚集在总部大楼大厅举行“鼓掌送行”仪式,在最后一天为他们鼓掌致意。两名前雇员告诉我,拉特克利夫不喜欢这一传统。因为这提醒人们:已经有许多人离开了。
When CIA officers quit, their colleagues gather in the lobby of the headquarters building for a “clap out,” a round of applause to wish them well on their last day. Ratcliffe isn’t a fan of the tradition, two former employees told me. They serve as a reminder that many people have left.
拉特克利夫上任伊始还做出了一些决定,一些现已离职的官员告诉我,他们无法赞同这些决定。在提名听证会上,他警告称,“出于政治动机、由官僚体系强加的社会正义议程”有可能分散情报官员的工作精力。上任后,他解雇了被分配到DEI(多元化、公平与包容)相关岗位的高级人员。前官员告诉我,被解雇的许多人只是运气不好,在等待更高级别职位空缺期间被分配到了那些工作,却被不公地污蔑为激进分子。
Ratcliffe also made decisions early in his tenure that some now-former officers told me they couldn’t condone. At his confirmation hearing, he warned that “a politically motivated, bureaucratically imposed social-justice agenda” risked distracting intelligence officers from their work. Once in office, he dismissed senior personnel who had been assigned to DEI-related roles. Former officials told me many of the people who were fired were simply unlucky enough to have been assigned those jobs while they waited for higher-level positions to open up, and were unfairly maligned as activists.
他还解雇了约60名试用期员工,这些人工作不足两年。其中一些人此前已被告知表现不佳,但这种大规模解聘仍让许多局内官员感到震惊。
He also fired about 60 probationary employees, who had less than two years’ experience. Some of them had already been put on notice that they were underperforming, but the mass termination still shocked many agency officers.
这并不是说兰利的每个人都不开心。现任和前任官员告诉我,总体而言,士气最高的是行动局,即从事拉特克利夫想要重点强调的间谍活动的官员。最近退休的官员告诉我,特别活动中心的人员尤其满意,该中心负责秘密和准军事行动,也许是因为他们太忙了,而且不仅是在乌克兰。
This is not to say that everyone is unhappy at Langley. Broadly speaking, current and former officers told me, morale is highest in the operations directorate, among the officers who conduct the espionage that Ratcliffe wants to emphasize. Personnel in the Special Activities Center, which conducts covert and paramilitary activities, are particularly satisfied, recently retired officers told me, perhaps because they’re so busy, and not only in Ukraine.
中情局局长通常不会吹嘘秘密行动,但拉特克利夫却热衷于分享他所谓的行动成果。去年6月的一次演讲中,他说“多亏了中情局”,美军特种部队能够在“脚踏该国最大军事综合体不到四分钟”的时间内,定位并逮捕了委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗。(一位资深五角大楼官员告诉我,拉特克利夫为该行动揽了过多功劳,但他并不否认该机构的贡献很重要。)
CIA directors don’t typically crow about secretive operations, but Ratcliffe has eagerly shared what he’s described as operational successes. In a speech last June, he said that “thanks to CIA,” U.S. special forces were able to locate and apprehend Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro “less than four minutes after their feet hit the ground on the largest military complex in that country.” (A senior Pentagon official told me that Ratcliffe took too much credit for the operation, but he didn’t deny that the agency’s contributions were important.)
在同一次演讲中,拉特克利夫还将帮助定位一名在伊朗上空被击落的美军战斗机飞行员,以及“完美的情报图景”归功于该机构,正是这份情报图景使得100多架美军飞机能够在一年前打击伊朗核设施。
During the same speech, Ratcliffe credited the agency with helping locate a U.S. fighter pilot shot down over Iran, and for the “flawless intelligence picture” that had allowed more than 100 U.S. aircraft to hit Iranian nuclear facilities a year earlier.
但该机构一些更为不透明的活动引发了焦虑。新闻报道披露了中情局在墨西哥和萨尔瓦多的行动,这是特朗普政府秘密打击贩毒集团努力的一部分。去年8月,《华盛顿邮报》报道,一系列针对加拉帕戈斯群岛附近厄瓜多尔渔船的空袭——该群岛是贩毒分子的已知枢纽——是中情局一项秘密计划的一部分。
But some of the agency’s more opaque activities have stirred anxiety. Press reports have revealed CIA operations in Mexico and El Salvador as part of the Trump administration’s clandestine efforts to combat drug cartels. In August, The Washington Post reported that a series of air strikes targeting Ecuadorian fishing boats near the Galápagos Islands, a known hub for drug traffickers, were part of a covert CIA program.
法律专家表示,美国对涉嫌运载违禁毒品船只实施的空袭可能违反武装冲突法,在某些情况下甚至可能被视为谋杀。最近退休的官员告诉我,一些同事已避免在中情局美洲和反毒品任务中心任职。“当民主党接管众议院时,会有一些处于作战层面的人不得不独自承担后果,”一位前官员告诉我。“该局目前行事过度冒进。”
Legal experts have said that U.S. air strikes against boats suspected of carrying illegal drugs may violate the laws of armed conflict and in some cases could be considered murder. Recently retired officers told me that some of their colleagues have avoided taking jobs in the CIA’s Americas and Counternarcotics Mission Center. “There are people at the operational level who, when the Democrats take over the House, will be left holding the bag,” one former officer told me. “The agency is over its skis right now.”
在士气光谱的另一端,是分析局的员工,他们撰写总统及其团队用于制定政策决策的文章、报告和评估。根据一项我于7月首次报道的年度调查,自拉特克利夫于2025年1月出任局长以来,明显更多的分析师反映担忧其工作的客观性正受到破坏。受访者将大部分批评指向加巴德,因她解雇了拒绝修改报告以配合政府政策的资深分析师。
At the other end of the morale spectrum are employees in the analysis directorate, who write the articles, reports, and assessments that the president and his team use to make policy decisions. Since Ratcliffe became director in January 2025, significantly more analysts have reported concerns that the objectivity of their work is being undermined, according to an annual survey that I first reported on in July. The respondents directed most of their criticism at Gabbard, after she fired senior analysts who refused to alter their reports to support administration policy.
但调查结果反映出一种更广泛的怀疑,即政府将拒绝接受其不愿听到的信息。前分析师告诉我,这将导致分析师收敛锋芒,进而使决策者失去最佳建议。
But the results reflect a broader suspicion that the administration will reject information that it doesn’t want to hear. That will cause analysts to pull their punches, which in turn will deprive policy makers of the best advice, former analysts told me.
前中央情报局高级分析师朱莉娅·卡利于5月辞职,她指责拉特克利夫没有为加巴德下令解雇的局官员辩护,并且在判定其任期前撰写的评估报告存在政治偏见后,撤销或修改了这些报告。“每位官员都得出了显而易见的结论:局长甚至不会保护我们最受尊敬的分析师,当他们讲出难听的真相时,所以他们不再讲真话,并学会了避开白宫不想听到的话题,”卡利告诉我。
Julia Curlee, who resigned in May as a senior CIA analyst, faulted Ratcliffe for not defending the agency officers whom Gabbard ordered be fired, and for rescinding or revising assessments that had been written before his tenure, after judging them to be politically biased. “Every officer drew the obvious conclusion: The director won’t protect even our most respected analysts when they tell hard truths, so they stopped telling them and learned to avoid topics the White House didn’t want to hear,” Curlee told me.
“拉特克利夫不是在保护中央情报局免受政治化;他是在引领政治化。”分析师力求客观。但情报工作作为一种实践并非真正超脱政治,因为它是总统权力的工具。最成功的中央情报局局长懂得如何在向老板讲真话的同时,也维护老板的利益。
“Ratcliffe isn’t protecting the CIA from politicization; he’s leading it.”Analysts strive for objectivity. But intelligence as a practice is not truly apolitical, because it’s an instrument of presidential power. The most successful CIA directors know how to tell their bosses the truth while also serving their interests.
拉特克利夫在很大程度上设法走好了这条微妙的界限。去年,他下令分析师重新审视特朗普所谓的“通俄骗局”,即该机构得出的结论:俄罗斯干预了2016年大选,目的是帮助特朗普获胜。在公开讲话中,拉特克利夫称,审查证明奥巴马时代的国家安全领导人制造了“充满政治色彩的环境”,并对他们的调查结果的可信度提出质疑。但拉特克利夫公布的中情局审查报告,几乎没有提供证据支持这一断言,没有改变原有结论,并总体上赞扬了中情局工作的质量。
Ratcliffe has largely managed to walk that fine line. Last year, he ordered analysts to reexamine what Trump calls “the Russia hoax,” the agency’s conclusion that Russia interfered in the 2016 election with the goal of helping Trump win. In public remarks, Ratcliffe said the review proved that Obama-era national-security leaders had created a “politically charged environment,” and he threw the credibility of their findings in doubt. But the CIA review, which Ratcliffe released, offered scant evidence to support that assertion, didn’t change the conclusion, and generally praised the quality of the CIA’s work.
今年夏天,该机构解密了有关中国试图干预2020年大选的文件。特朗普在一次黄金时段的全国讲话中表示,这些情报证明了中国存在恶意行为,以及选举安全方面存在系统性弱点。但同样,这些文件并不支持他的所有说法。拉特克利夫就支持特朗普的“透明度倡议”发表了一份措辞谨慎的声明,该倡议点名了中国的干预,但他没有重复总统关于选举被窃取的说法。与总统关系密切的否认选举结果者敦促他宣布国家紧急状态,并因所谓的外国干预而主张联邦对选举的控制。
Over the summer, the agency declassified documents about China’s efforts to interfere in the 2020 election. In a prime-time national address, Trump said the intelligence was evidence of China’s malign actions and systemic weaknesses in the security of elections. But again, the documents didn’t support all of his claims. Ratcliffe issued a measured statement about backing Trump’s “transparency initiatives” that called out China’s interference, but he didn’t repeat the president’s assertion that the election was stolen. Election deniers close to the president have urged him to declare a national emergency and assert federal control over elections because of alleged foreign interference.
随着中期选举临近,众议院和参议院情报监督委员会的两名民主党高层本周表示,他们已经警告拉特克利夫:如果特朗普公开声称中央情报局给了他外国势力干预选举的情报,议员们将打电话给拉特克利夫,询问特朗普说的是否属实。康涅狄格州众议员吉姆·希姆斯对记者说:“那天你必须能联系上。所以当总统发表那项声明时,你要接听你的手机,向我们提供正在发生的情况的信息。”希姆斯和弗吉尼亚州参议员马克·华纳表示,拉特克利夫已承诺会接他们的电话。
With the midterms approaching, the two top Democrats on the intelligence oversight committees in the House and Senate said this week that they had put Ratcliffe on notice: If Trump claims publicly that the CIA gave him intelligence that a foreign power interfered in the election, the lawmakers will call Ratcliffe and ask if Trump is telling the truth. “You must be available to us on that day,” Representative Jim Himes of Connecticut told reporters. “So when the president makes that announcement, you will answer your cellphone to give us information about what’s happening.”Himes and Senator Mark Warner of Virginia said Ratcliffe had promised to answer their call.
即便在卷入政治争议时,拉特克利夫也设法让中情局免受特朗普的怒火。考虑到总统第一次上任时曾将情报官员比作纳粹,这并非无足轻重的成就。拉特克利夫在解释总统仓促决定方面也比大多数内阁成员做得更好。去年,特朗普在椭圆形办公室与泽连斯基电视直播争吵后突然切断对乌克兰的情报共享,拉特克利夫谈到了为何这一暂停可能是短暂的。
Even when he has waded into political controversy, Ratcliffe has managed to shield the CIA from Trump’s ire. Considering that when the president came into office the first time he compared intelligence officers to Nazis, this is not an insignificant achievement. Ratcliffe also does a better job than most Cabinet members of explaining the president’s hasty decisions. Last year, when Trump abruptly cut off intelligence to Ukraine after his televised blowup with Zelensky in the Oval Office, Ratcliffe spoke about why the pause would probably be short-lived.
“特朗普确实有疑问,即泽连斯基总统是否致力于和平进程,他说:让我们暂停一下,”拉特克利夫在两位领导人会面五天后对福克斯商业频道说。(那是外交辞令式的概括。特朗普曾告诉泽连斯基,他不尊重人、不知感恩。)但在离开白宫后,泽连斯基给特朗普发了一封信,并发布在社交媒体上,称赞总统的“强有力的领导”,并向他保证“乌克兰准备坐到谈判桌前”。
“Trump had a real question about whether President Zelensky was committed to the peace process, and he said: Let’s pause,” Ratcliffe told Fox Business five days after the leaders met. (That was a diplomatic summary. Trump had told Zelensky that he was disrespectful and ungrateful.) But after he left the White House, Zelensky sent Trump a note, which he also posted on social media, praising the president for his “strong leadership” and assuring him that “Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table.”
“我们确实非常珍视美国为帮助乌克兰维护其主权和独立所做的一切,”泽连斯基说。特朗普在国会联席会议上宣读了这封信的部分内容,并称泽连斯基的和解言辞“很重要”。拉特克利夫说,特朗普的暂停让泽连斯基有时间考虑下一步行动。这位局长显然认为乌克兰领导人在主动联系特朗普时做出了正确选择,并且准确预测情报将再次开始流动。“我认为我们将与乌克兰肩并肩合作,我们必须击退那里的侵略,让世界处于更有利的位置,推动这些和平谈判向前发展,”他说。
“We do really value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence,” Zelensky said. Trump read portions of the note to a joint session of Congress, and called Zelensky’s conciliatory words “important.”Ratcliffe said that Trump’s pause had given time for Zelensky to consider his next move. The director clearly believed that the Ukrainian leader had made the right choice when he reached out to Trump, and he accurately predicted that the intelligence would start flowing again. “I think we’ll work shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine as we have to push back on the aggression that’s there, put the world in a better place for these peace negotiations to move forward,” he said.
中央情报局局长似乎是在电波中劝导泽连斯基,这正是特朗普自己的顾问们用过的手法。传达的信息归结起来就是:记住你在跟谁打交道,事情或许会有转机。拉特克利夫也许不会向他的上司进言,但他懂得如何揣摩上司的心思。西蒙·舒斯特对本文有补充报道。
The CIA director seemed to be counseling Zelensky over the airwaves, a technique Trump’s own advisers have employed. The message came down to this: Remember who you’re dealing with, and things might work out. Ratcliffe might not advocate to his boss, but he knows how to read him. Simon Shuster contributed additional reporting.