在10月18日圣保罗举行的一场电视总统辩论中，弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗拿出巴西监狱里的一个数字，用在关于犯罪的争论里。“73%。”这位45岁的参议员宣称，这是投票给他的对手、总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦（80岁）的囚犯比例。该数字来自羁押设施内的投票站，那里的工作人员和符合条件的待审被羁押人可以投票。
In a televised presidential debate in Sao Paulo on October 18, Flavio Bolsonaro brought a number from Brazil’s prisons into an argument over crime. “Seventy-three percent”. The 45-year-old senator claimed that was the share of prisoners who had voted for his opponent, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 80. The figure came from polling stations inside detention facilities, where staff and eligible detainees awaiting trial could cast ballots.
正在服刑的已决犯不能投票。卢拉停顿了一下。“我想要100%，”他回答，“甚至包括你父亲。”缺席的父亲雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗在国会度过了28年，期间他多次赞扬1964年军事政变，那场政变开启了长达二十多年的独裁统治。他后来当选总统，在2022年竞选连任时败给卢拉，随后因密谋推翻选举结果被判刑。他正在服27年居家监禁刑。
Convicted prisoners serving final sentences could not vote. Lula paused. “I want 100 percent,” he replied. “Even your father.”Jair Bolsonaro, the absent father, had spent 28 years in Congress, where he repeatedly praised the 1964 military coup that ushered in more than two decades of dictatorship. He went on to become president, lost re-election to Lula in 2022 and was later convicted of plotting to overturn the result. He is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest.
卢拉就职一周后，数千名博尔索纳罗支持者闯入并破坏了巴西利亚的总统府、国会和最高法院，声称选举被窃取，但未提供证据。
A week after Lula’s inauguration, thousands of Bolsonaro supporters invaded and vandalised the presidential palace, Congress and Supreme Court in Brasilia, claiming without evidence that the election had been stolen.
回到演播室，弗拉维奥承诺要让巴西“重新民主化”。他要求尊重投给他的5600万巴西选民，并表示将让卢拉退休。
Back in the studio, Flavio was promising to “redemocratise” Brazil. He demanded respect for the 56 million Brazilians who had voted for him and said he would send Lula into retirement.
10月4日，巴西举行了总统选举首轮投票，同时进行众议院和参议院选举。弗拉维奥获得5610万票，占有效选票的47.03%，卢拉获得5390万票，占45.16%。自那以后，博尔索纳罗在民调中的领先优势已缩小，多项民调显示两位候选人处于误差范围内。最新民调显示卢拉正在追赶，尽管距离10月25日决选仅剩几天，总统能否克服弗拉维奥的首轮领先优势仍不确定。
On October 4, Brazil held the first round of its presidential election, alongside elections for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. Flavio received 56.1 million votes, or 47.03 percent of valid ballots, against Lula’s 53.9 million and 45.16 percent. Since then, Bolsonaro’s lead in the polls has narrowed, with several surveys placing the candidates within the margin of error. The latest readings suggest Lula is gaining ground, although just days before the October 25 run-off, it remains uncertain whether the president can overcome Flavio’s first-round lead.
10月18日的辩论以讨论武装团体蔓延至巴西社区为开场。近6900万巴西人表示，他们感知到犯罪帮派或民兵存在于其社区中，尽管该国谋杀率正在下降。弗拉维奥呼吁将这些组织视为“毒品恐怖分子”对待，并主张巴西加入美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的“美洲盾牌”倡议，与哈维尔·米莱领导的阿根廷并肩。他承诺新增50万个监狱床位，放宽平民获取枪支的条件，并将刑事责任年龄从18岁降至16岁，针对某些严重犯罪则降至14岁。
The October 18 debate had begun with a discussion of armed groups spreading through Brazilian neighbourhoods. Nearly 69 million Brazilians say they perceive the presence of criminal gangs or militias in their neighbourhoods, even as the country’s murder rate falls. Flavio called for treating those organisations as narcoterrorists and for Brazil to join United States President Donald Trump’s Shield of the Americas alongside Javier Milei’s Argentina. He promised 500,000 additional prison places, easier civilian access to firearms and a reduction in the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16, and to 14 for certain serious crimes.
针对贫困社区居民，弗拉维奥提议设立繁荣部，承诺提供职业培训和信贷支持，帮助接受政府救助的家庭创办自己的企业。“繁荣”一词在巴西极具影响力的福音派教会中自有其渊源，布道有时会将物质进步与信仰及个人奋斗联系起来。
For residents of poorer neighbourhoods, Flavio proposed a Ministry of Prosperity, promising vocational training and credit to help families receiving government assistance to start businesses of their own. The word “prosperity” had a history of its own in Brazil’s influential evangelical churches, where sermons sometimes link material advancement to faith and individual endeavour.
这些承诺综合起来，将更安全街道的前景与一种特定的繁荣理念挂钩，即政府救助将成为职业培训、信贷获取和小微企业发展的起点。
Taken together, the promises linked the prospect of safer streets to a particular idea of prosperity, in which government assistance would become a starting point for vocational training, credit and small businesses.
卢拉谈及其执政时期的社会成果，以及在博索纳罗执政后恢复民主制度。这位前工会领袖、中左翼工人党（PT）创始人之一，提出加强联邦层面对公共安全的协调。对犯罪采取更强硬手段并非弗拉维奥竞选活动的专利。卢拉同样支持针对某些严重罪行将刑事责任年龄降至16岁。
Lula spoke of the social gains of his governments and of restoring democratic institutions after the Bolsonaro years. A former union leader who helped found the centre-left Workers’ Party (PT), he proposed stronger federal coordination of public security. The tougher approach to crime was not confined to Flavio’s campaign. Lula, too, supported lowering the age of criminal responsibility to 16 for certain serious offences.
辩论前两天，卢拉曾与国会领袖共同庆祝一项改革，该改革将逐步终结巴西的六天工作制，在不削减工资的前提下将工时从每周44小时降至40小时。参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗起初批评该改革属于投机行为，随后改变立场投了赞成票，称他在竞选途中听取了工人的意见。
Two days before the debate, Lula had stood among congressional leaders to celebrate a reform that would gradually bring Brazil’s six-day working week to an end, reducing hours from 44 to 40 without cutting wages. After initially criticising the reform as opportunistic, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro changed his position and voted for it, saying he had listened to workers on the campaign trail.
卢拉还有其他经济成果可供强调。巴西失业率已从2023年的7.8%降至今年的5.3%，实际工资也有所上涨。然而，对许多家庭而言，昂贵的信贷和债务偿还抵消了这些改善带来的影响。弗拉维奥试图利用由此产生的经济不满，以及对公共安全的担忧。
Lula had other economic gains to highlight. Unemployment in Brazil has fallen from 7.8 percent in 2023 to 5.3 percent this year, while real wages have risen. For many households, however, expensive credit and debt repayments have dampened the impact of any improvements. Flavio has sought to capitalise on the resulting economic frustration, as well as concerns about public security.
如果连任，卢拉将不得不在应对这些不满的同时，面对因10月4日立法选举而重塑的国会。在513个席位的众议院中，博索纳罗的自由党（PL）赢得121个席位，较之前的97个有所增加。由工人党（PT）领导的集团席位从82个增至88个，而最大的传统中右翼政党联盟失去了18个席位。最剧烈的重组发生在右翼阵营内部，议会左翼的席位数基本保持不变。
If re-elected, Lula would have to address those frustrations while dealing with a Congress reshaped by the October 4 legislative elections. In the 513-seat lower house, Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) won 121 seats, up from 97. The PT-led bloc moved from 82 to 88, while the largest alliance of traditional centre-right parties lost 18 seats. The sharpest rearrangement had taken place within the right, leaving the parliamentary left’s numbers largely intact.
右翼的获益引发了一个问题：博索纳罗运动究竟代表何种变革。据10月Datafolha民调，48%的卢拉支持者提到社会保障，而41%的弗拉维奥支持者表达了对变革的渴望。然而，自由党新当选的121名联邦众议员中，111人曾担任过公职，93人曾属于其他政党，并非政治新人。
The right’s gains raise a question about the kind of change the Bolsonaro movement represents. In an October Datafolha survey, 48 percent of Lula’s supporters mentioned social protection, while 41 percent of Flavio’s supporters expressed a desire for change. Yet the PL’s new deputies were hardly political novices. Of the 121 elected, 111 had held office before and 93 had belonged to other parties.
2002年，同一政党在总统竞选中将保守派纺织业巨头何塞·阿伦卡尔（José Alencar）与前工会领袖卢拉（Lula）搭配，这使后者首次获得总统职位。阿伦卡尔一直任职至2010年，尽管他在2005年因涉及其领导层的腐败丑闻而离开工人党（PL）。2021年，杰里·博尔索纳罗（Jair Bolsonaro）才加入该党。该党如今同时容纳了其家族的野心以及那些在截然不同旗帜下开始职业生涯的政治人物。
In 2002, the same party had placed Jose Alencar, a conservative textile magnate, next to Lula on the presidential ticket that first brought the former union leader to power. Alencar remained vice president until 2010, though he left the PL in 2005 amid a corruption scandal involving its leadership. Jair Bolsonaro joined only in 2021. The party now housed his family’s ambitions alongside politicians whose careers had begun under very different banners.
在总统很少能独自掌握本党众议院多数的国家，具有此类经验的政治人物很少会无业而终。执政党更迭，各党派在联盟间转换以争取内阁职位及对其选区资金的影响力。成熟的中右派政党曾服务于截然不同政治取向的政府。博尔索纳罗最终依赖这些政党，尽管他曾竞选反对政治精英的平台。其运动的得失并未使这些联盟过时。
In a country where presidents rarely command a parliamentary majority of their own party, politicians of such experience are seldom without work. Governments change, and parties move between coalitions to negotiate cabinet appointments and influence over the funds that reach their constituencies. Established centre-right parties have served administrations of widely differing orientations. Jair Bolsonaro eventually relied on them after campaigning against the political establishment. His movement’s gains had not made those alliances obsolete.
卢拉在其政治生涯中大部分时间致力于与前敌人构建政府。其现任副总统及竞选搭档格雷尔多·阿尔克明（Geraldo Alckmin）曾以中右派反对派身份挑战他竞选总统。第四个任期将更需要此类经验，且右翼在国会中将拥有更大话语权。卢拉的继任者迪拉·罗塞夫（Dilma Rousseff）于2016年因深度经济衰退及其执政联盟的崩溃而被弹劾，这些情况与卢拉今日所面临的截然不同。
Lula has spent much of his political career constructing governments with former adversaries. His current vice president and running mate, Geraldo Alckmin, once challenged him for the presidency as the candidate of the centre-right opposition. A fourth term would demand more of that experience, with the right holding greater power in Congress. Lula’s successor, Dilma Rousseff, was impeached in 2016 amid a deep recession and the collapse of her governing coalition, circumstances quite different from those Lula faces today.
新的权力格局将对最高法院产生特别重要影响。亚历山德罗·德·莫拉斯（Alexandre de Moraes）曾主导导致杰里·博尔索纳罗入狱的案件。随着博尔索纳罗家族指控其政治迫害，卢拉政党捍卫其权威以维护民主。但法院已成为右翼议会野心的主要目标。
The new balance of power would be particularly consequential for the Supreme Court. Alexandre de Moraes had overseen the case that sent Jair Bolsonaro to prison. As the Bolsonaro family accused him of political persecution, Lula’s party defended his authority as part of its defence of democracy. But the court has become a major target of the right’s parliamentary ambitions.
莫赖斯的名字贯穿了10月4日的参议院选举，此次选举改选了参议院81个席位中的54席。与博索纳罗家族结盟的候选人承诺要弹劾他并限制法院的权力。一些人希望缩小法院的管辖权，另一些人则试图限制个别大法官单独行动的权力。私人银行Banco Master的倒闭引发了人们对可能存在利益冲突的质疑——该银行曾与莫赖斯妻子的律师事务所签订了一份利润丰厚的合同。该律所否认存在不当行为。
Moraes’s name had travelled through the October 4 Senate elections, in which 54 of the chamber’s 81 seats were contested. Candidates allied with the Bolsonaros promised to impeach him and curb the court’s powers. Some wanted its jurisdiction narrowed, while others sought to limit the authority of individual justices to act alone. The collapse of Banco Master, a private bank that had a lucrative contract with the law firm of Moraes’s wife, raised questions about possible conflicts of interest. The firm has denied wrongdoing.
若卢拉赢得第四个任期，他将面对81席参议院中的28名自由党参议员，而参议院有权批准最高法院大法官的任命，并可通过弹劾罢免大法官。
A fourth Lula term would face 28 Liberal Party senators in an 81-seat chamber empowered to approve Supreme Court appointments and remove justices through impeachment.
《圣保罗页报》的一项调查发现，下一届参议院中至少有49名成员曾表示支持在某些情况下弹劾最高法院大法官。这距离罢免所需的三分之二多数还差五票，而且这还是在就具体案件达成一致之前。支持限制法院权力的力量并不局限于博索纳罗阵营。
A survey by Folha de S. Paulo identified at least 49 members of the next Senate who had expressed support for impeaching Supreme Court justices in some circumstances. That was five short of the two-thirds required for removal, even before agreement on a particular case. Support for restricting the court’s powers extended beyond the Bolsonaro movement.
国会日益增长的权力也可能制约卢拉兑现经济和社会改善的能力，而这些改善正是他大部分政治号召力的基础。对公共资金的控制权一直在向国会转移。2025年，议员用于地方项目的拨款承诺资金达到约470亿雷亚尔（93亿美元），是11年前水平的四倍多。议员们越来越多地决定这些资金的去向。总统可以争取到议员对某项具体措施的支持，却无法收回他们对资金分配的控制权。
Congress’s growing power could also constrain Lula’s ability to deliver the economic and social improvements on which he has based much of his political appeal. Control over public money had been moving towards Congress. In 2025, parliamentary allocations for local projects reached about 47 billion reais ($9.3bn) in committed funds, more than four times their level 11 years earlier. Legislators increasingly choose where that money goes. A president can secure their votes for a particular measure without recovering control over the funds they distribute.
周三，卢拉向国会提交了一项提案，建议在周末和公共假日实行公共交通免费，让一些即将获得两天休假的劳动者能够免费出行。他建议使用政客们为其选区项目预留的资金。下议院议长对这一想法表示欢迎。但他希望这笔钱来自其他地方。
On Wednesday, Lula sent Congress a proposal to make public transport free on weekends and public holidays, allowing some workers who would soon have two days off to travel without paying fares. He suggested using money politicians had set aside for projects in their constituencies. The Speaker of the lower house welcomed the idea. He wanted the money to come from somewhere else.