
在冲刺中期选举的最后阶段,据一位知情人士透露,众议院议长迈克·约翰逊向唐纳德·特朗普总统提出了一个关键请求。约翰逊的信息是:特朗普能否在当前艰难的政治环境下,拨出更多资金帮助众议院共和党人?
In the final sprint to the midterms, Speaker Mike Johnson went to President Donald Trump with a crucial ask, according to a person familiar with the exchange. Johnson’s message: Could Trump spare more cash to help House Republicans in this tough political climate?
他并非唯一提出这一诉求的人:据多位知情人士透露,捐赠者和议员本人也一直在恳请特朗普的核心圈子为关键竞选提供更多资源。在约翰逊提出请求后几天内——该请求最早由《Punchbowl News》报道——特朗普的政治资金库向数十个众议院竞选注入了近3000万美元,作为最后一搏,帮助焦虑不安的共和党在下个月避免灾难性后果。
He wasn’t the only one making the case: Donors and lawmakers themselves have also been pleading with Trump’s inner orbit for more resources in key races, according to multiple people familiar with the discussion. Within days of Johnson’s ask, which was first reported by Punchbowl News, Trump’s political war chest dumped nearly $30 million into dozens of House races in a final push to help a jittery Republican Party avert disaster next month.
但随着近几周众议院共和党人的政治形势恶化,共和党竞选操盘手被迫放弃了他们通常进攻的地区,转而专注于保护数十名在传统红州(如亚利桑那州、俄亥俄州、佛罗里达州和威斯康星州)意外陷入困境的现任议员。
But as political conditions have deteriorated for House Republicans in recent weeks, GOP campaign operatives have been forced to abandon places where they usually go on offense, as they focus instead on protecting dozens of unexpectedly imperiled incumbents in traditionally red turf like Arizona, Ohio, Florida and Wisconsin.
数周来,顶级共和党人一直轻视民主党人试图在可靠的红色选区击败共和党议员的举动,认为那是没把握的尝试,目标包括明尼苏达州的布拉德·芬斯塔德、俄亥俄州的迈克·特纳或科罗拉多州的杰夫·克兰克等众议员。其他人,如俄亥俄州的迈克·凯里或亚利桑那州的伊莱·克雷恩众议员,甚至几乎不在民主党的关注范围内。
For weeks, top Republicans have dismissed what they saw as Democrats’ long-shot attempts to oust GOP lawmakers in reliably red seats, like Reps. Brad Finstad of Minnesota, Mike Turner of Ohio or Jeff Crank in Colorado. Others, like Reps. Mike Carey of Ohio or Eli Crane of Arizona, were hardly even on Democrats’ radar.
但距离选举仅剩一周多,多位参与众议院竞选的共和党操盘手告诉CNN,如果党内基本盘不出来投票,那些意外陷入胶着状态的选区的现任议员前景充满不确定性——共和党领导层深知,这一因素将决定民主党能否掀起真正的“蓝色浪潮”。
But with just over a week to go, multiple GOP operatives told CNN there is growing uncertainty about incumbents in unexpectedly competitive seats if the party base does not turn out – a factor that Republican leaders know will determine whether the Democrats can create a real blue wave.
“这就是一个‘严阵以待’的局面,”一位参与众议院竞选的共和党操盘手告诉CNN,并指出他们在最近的任何内部民调中,都未见胶着选区的现任议员支持率突破50%大关。
“This is just a ‘batten down the hatches’ situation,” one GOP operative involved in House races told CNN, noting they have not seen an incumbent in a competitive district crack the 50% threshold in any recent internal polling.
该党还在将资源从几个席位转移出去,这些席位因全国范围内的中期党派重新划分选区而被重新划定为有利于共和党。在最后关头,众议院共和党团体及其盟友正投入数百万美元,以捍卫核心现任议员,试图守住传统红色席位这一堡垒。
The party is also shifting resources away from several seats that were redrawn to favor Republicans in the nationwide mid-decade partisan redistricting push. In the eleventh-hour, House GOP groups and their allies are pouring in millions to defend core incumbents in an attempt to hold onto a bulwark of traditionally red seats.
共和党内部人士长期以来一直担心其在肯塔基州、蒙大拿州、爱荷华州和亚利桑那州等地的空缺席位——即没有现任议员的席位——的命运。两党操盘手告诉CNN,这些地方在过去两周已呈现向民主党倾斜的趋势。
GOP insiders have long feared the fate of their open seats — which have no incumbent – in places like Kentucky, Montana, Iowa and Arizona. Those places have trended toward Democrats in the last two weeks, operatives in both parties told CNN.
但现在,一些共和党人在其现任议员的民调中看到了疲软迹象——值得注意的是,有大量未决定的选民,他们担心这些选民可能会决定不去投票。
But now some Republicans are seeing signs of weakness in their incumbents’ polling — notably, a large chunk of undecided voters, who they fear could decide to sit out the election.
约翰逊及其共和党竞选团队坚称,仍有保住多数席位的路径,并表示他们不担心那些特朗普上一轮以两位数或更大优势获胜的地区的现任议员。但据多位知情人士透露,私下里,党领袖们正听到来自全国各地惊慌的共和党议员的大量抱怨,他们希望在最后冲刺阶段获得国家党组织的更多帮助。
Johnson and his GOP campaign operation insist there is still a path to keeping their majority, and say they aren’t concerned about incumbents in those places that Trump won by double digits or more last cycle. But privately, party leaders are hearing an earful from rattled Republican lawmakers across the map who want more help from the national party in the final stretch, according to multiple people familiar with the discussions.
在北卡罗来纳州,众多现任议员——包括众议院共和党竞选负责人——正在采取最后时刻的行动以动员选民投票,而在该州,全国共和党人似乎已对前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·沃特利的参议院竞选失去了希望。在得克萨斯州,共和党人担心参议院共和党提名人肯·帕克斯顿的连带效应,以及拉丁裔选民出现向民主党倾斜的迹象。
In North Carolina, numerous incumbents — including the House GOP’s campaign chief — are making last-minute moves to turn out voters in a state where national Republicans already appear to have lost hope in former RNC chairman Michael Whatley’s Senate race. In Texas, Republicans worry about the downballot effects of Senate GOP nominee Ken Paxton, as well as signs of a Latino swing toward Democrats.
据多位共和党操盘手透露,佛罗里达州的现任议员恐慌情绪或许最为严重,共和党团体正投入数百万美元资助那些原本稳操胜券席位上的党内同僚,并巩固本党在重新划分选区时专门为削弱民主党而重绘的其他席位。私下里,许多人已将矛头指向罗恩·德桑蒂斯州长重绘选区地图的做法,担心此举已演变成巨大的资源浪费——甚至在最坏情况下,酿成一场政治灾难。
There is perhaps the most panic among Florida incumbents, according to multiple Republican operatives, where GOP groups are dumping millions to help members in typically safe seats and to shore up other seats their own party specifically redrew to weaken Democrats. Privately, many are already pointing the blame at Gov. Ron DeSantis for redrawing the map, fearing the move has become a massive waste of resources — and at worst, a political disaster.
“必须对德桑蒂斯搞的‘蠢人式杰利蝾螈’产生反弹,”一位佛罗里达州共和党操盘手本周对CNN表示。CNN已联系德桑蒂斯团队置评。
“There needs to be backlash against DeSantis over his dummy-mander,” one Florida Republican operative told CNN this week. CNN has reached out to DeSantis’ team for comment.
与此同时,民主党因过去两周的民调数据而信心大增。据多位操盘手透露,党内一些人现正私下认真探讨赢得230个或更多席位的多数席——即净增至少16个席位。党魁们正盯上几周前似乎遥不可及的席位,例如宾夕法尼亚州著名的温和派共和党众议员布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克的席位,他在2018年民主党上一次“蓝色浪潮”中幸存下来。
Democrats, meanwhile, have gained confidence from their polling over the last two weeks. Some in the party are now seriously talking privately about winning a majority of 230 or more — a pickup of at least 16 seats, numerous operatives told CNN. Party leaders are eyeing seats that seemed out of reach just weeks earlier, like that of famously resilient moderate GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania, who survived Democrats’ last blue wave in 2018.
菲茨帕特里克如今成为共和党在最后冲刺阶段的最大资金倾斜对象之一:共和党头号超级政治行动委员会“国会领导力基金”已为该选区最后两周直至选举日的广告投放预订了逾350万美元广告时段,据AdImpact数据显示。
Fitzpatrick is now one of Republicans’ biggest funding priorities in the final days: The GOP’s leading super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, has more than $3.5 million worth of ad time reserved for the race for the final two weeks through Election Day, according to data from AdImpact.
即便在如此艰难的环境下,约翰逊及其竞选机构私下认为仍能反夺六个民主党把持的席位。几乎所有这些席位都位于蓝州,共和党认为这些州的选民更可能将愤怒发泄在地方民主党人——包括他们的国会议员——身上,而非特朗普和共和党。
Even in this tough environment, Johnson and his campaign arm privately believe they can still flip a half-dozen Democrat-held seats. Nearly all are in blue states where Republicans believe voters are more likely to take out their anger on local Democrats — including their member of Congress — than Trump and the GOP.
特朗普的竞选资金储备,9月初时总计超过4亿美元,也已成为该党的一条关键生命线。据AdImpact统计,由其团队资助的一对超级政治行动委员会(超级政治行动委员会)自9月初以来已向众议院竞选注资超过1.5亿美元。而CLF这一主要超级政治行动委员会预计将在本周期的广告投放上花费超过2亿美元。该党拥有充足的现金储备和捐赠者支持。
Trump’s stockpile of campaign cash, which totaled more than $400 million entering September, has also become a crucial lifeline for the party. A pair of super PACs funded by his operation has poured more than $150 million into House races since the start of September, per AdImpact. And CLF, the leading super PAC, is projected to spend more than $200 million on ads this cycle. The party has ample cash reserves and donor support.
共和党对特朗普势力范围内的一对民主党把持选区最有信心——即华盛顿州南部众议员玛丽·格鲁森坎普·佩雷斯的选区,以及缅因州北部的一个空缺席位。新墨西哥州本十年来已四次易手的一个席位依然处于胶着状态。
Republicans feel most confident about a pair of Democratic-held districts in Trump country — Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez’s in southern Washington state and an open seat in northern Maine. A seat in New Mexico that’s traded party control four times this decade also remains in contention.
此外,在北卡罗来纳州、得克萨斯州、佛罗里达州和俄亥俄州,共和党重新划定边界以便更容易击败民主党人的约十个席位上。(多名共和党人告诉CNN,即使在糟糕的选举之夜,他们仍相信至少能赢得五个席位:北卡罗来纳州和俄亥俄州各一席,得克萨斯州和佛罗里达州各两席,此外还有田纳西州、阿拉巴马州和路易斯安那州重新划定边界的席位。)
“事实是,正如为候选人奔走全国、筹集超过5亿美元所证明的,议长热切地相信共和党能够并将会守住众议院多数派地位,”约翰逊团队的一名高级成员告诉CNN。
Then there are the roughly dozen seats in North Carolina, Texas, Florida and Ohio where Republicans redrew boundaries to make it easier to oust Democrats. (Several Republicans told CNN that even on a bad night, they still believe they’ll pick up at least five seats: one each in North Carolina and Ohio, and two in Texas and Florida, on top of the redrawn seats in Tennessee, Alabama and Louisiana.)“The fact is, as evidenced by crisscrossing the country on behalf of candidates and raising over a half billion dollars, the Speaker fervently believes Republicans can and will hold the House majority,” a senior member of Johnson’s team told CNN.
但共和党普遍承认,在如此险恶的周期中,他们大多数传统的战场目标已难以企及。而数亿美元的超级政治行动委员会支持正面临一个不断扩大的竞争版图。
But Republicans widely acknowledge that most of their traditional battleground targets are out of reach in such a treacherous cycle. And hundreds of millions in super PAC support is contending with an expanding map.
“资金必须挪作他用,”一名负责众议院竞选的共和党操盘手表示,形容该党从典型的进攻性席位撤退。“环境因素与候选人素质的综合作用,迫使他们改变了方向。”国会领导基金(Congressional Leadership Fund)退出了纽约州第3选区等席位的争夺,该选区由民主党众议员汤姆·苏奥齐(Tom Suozzi)把持;同时大幅削减了在加利福尼亚州第13选区针对民主党新人众议员亚当·格雷(Adam Gray)的广告投放。
“The money needed to go somewhere else,” one GOP operative who works on House races said, describing the party’s retreat from typical offensive seats. “A mix of the environment and candidate quality moved them away.”The Congressional Leadership Fund pulled out of seats like New York’s 3rd District, held by Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, while drawing down much of its ad bookings against freshman Democratic Rep. Adam Gray in California’s 13th District.
格雷上一轮仅以187票优势险胜,但该选区也作为州民主党重新划分选区、以制衡得克萨斯州共和党的一部分被重新划分。
He won by just 187 votes last cycle, but his district was also redrawn as part of state Democrats’ redistricting push to counter Republicans in Texas.
共和党还从得克萨斯州第28选区撤资,这是他们梦寐以求翻盆数十年、甚至在去年通过党派重新划分选区重新绘制过的南得州席位。民主党众议员亨利·奎亚尔(Henry Cuellar)正面临来自共和党重磅招募的韦伯县法官塔诺·蒂赫里纳(Tano Tijerina)最严峻的大选挑战。但在取消了剩余200万美元广告时段后,国会领导基金在最后两周在那里的预订广告费不足10万美元。
Republicans also pulled money out of a South Texas seat they’ve dreamed of flipping for decades and even redrew in partisan redistricting last year: Texas’ 28th District. Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar is facing his most serious general election contest from a celebrated GOP recruit, Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina. But after canceling $2 million in remaining ad time, CLF has less than $100,000 booked there for the final two weeks.
更早之前,该组织已放弃两名处于关键战场选区、曾位列两党首要攻坚目标的现任议员:爱荷华州的玛丽安内特·米勒-米克斯(Mariannette Miller-Meeks),此前已投入逾600万美元;新泽西州的汤姆·基恩(Tom Kean),已投入200万美元。
Even earlier, the group had abandoned two incumbents in battleground districts formerly at the top of both parties’ target lists: Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa, after spending more than $6 million there, and Tom Kean in New Jersey, having already invested $2 million.

与此同时,资金正流向深红地区现任议员的防守战。特朗普的一个超级政治行动委员会计划在大选日前投入逾200万美元,为亚利桑那州第2选区的克雷恩(Crane)护航,特朗普在2024年曾以15个百分点优势拿下该选区。
Meanwhile, money is flowing to the defense of incumbents in deep red territory. One of the Trump super PACs is set to spend more than $2 million through Election Day defending Crane in Arizona’s 2nd District, which the president carried by 15 points in 2024.
进入最后几周,共和党高层最担忧的是大量无现任议员竞选的空缺席位,这是本周期逾40名共和党众议员离职导致的结果。
In the final weeks, top Republicans are most anxious about the huge number of open seats, a result of this cycle’s exodus of more than 40 GOP lawmakers from the House.
广告预订情况反映了这种焦虑。国会领导基金(CLF)在密歇根州第10选区投入900万美元购买广告,特朗普曾以6.5个百分点的优势赢下该选区。多个共和党团体正将数百万美元转移至南卡罗来纳州第1选区,特朗普曾以13个百分点的优势赢下该选区。而总统的一个超级政治行动委员会(超级竞选委员会)在蒙大拿州第1选区投入超过300万美元,特朗普曾以10个百分点的优势赢下该选区。
Ad bookings for the final weeks reflect that anxiety. CLF is spending $9 million on ads in Michigan’s 10th District, which Trump won by 6.5 points. Multiple GOP groups are moving millions to South Carolina’s 1st District, which Trump won by 13 points. And one of the president’s super PACs is spending more than $3 million in Montana’s 1st District, which he won by 10 points.
同一个亲特朗普团体还向得克萨斯州第23选区和肯塔基州第6选区等无现任议员竞选的选区投入了更多资金,特朗普在这两个选区均以约15个百分点的优势获胜。
The same Trump-aligned group steered more funds into open seats like Texas’ 23rd District and Kentucky’s 6th, both of which Trump won by roughly 15 points.
多位共和党操盘手表示,此前竞争更激烈的无现任议员选区,如亚利桑那州第1选区和内布拉斯加州第2选区,共和党很可能已经失守;北卡罗来纳州第11选区也是如此,该选区现任议员因伦理丑闻在党领袖施压下辞职。亲特朗普团体“不倒退政治行动委员会”(No Going Back PAC)本周退出北卡罗来纳州该选区角逐,取消了原计划投入的逾100万美元广告费,此前已在该选区投入逾400万美元。
Open seats in previously more competitive territory, like Arizona’s 1st and Nebraska’s 2nd Districts, are likely already gone for Republicans, as well as North Carolina’s 11th District, where party leaders had to pressure their incumbent to resign after an ethics scandal, according to multiple GOP operatives. No Going Back PAC, one of the Trump groups, exited that North Carolina race this week, cutting more than $1 million in planned ads after spending more than $4 million on the contest.
在佛罗里达州,共和党高层认为他们焦虑的现任议员最终将成功连任。但对于奥兰多地区的一个无现任议员选区,部分人感到特别紧张——该选区原任众议员科里·米尔斯(Cory Mills)深陷丑闻,在夏末初选中被淘汰。
In Florida, top Republicans believe their jittery incumbents will ultimately survive. But some are nervous about one race in particular — an open seat in the Orlando area where scandal-plagued Rep. Cory Mills was ousted in a late summer primary.
中间派民主党候选人贝尔·达尔顿(Bale Dalton)本周对CNN表示:“他们应该为这场竞选感到紧张。”达尔顿曾任美国国家航空航天局(NASA)幕僚长和海军上校,正与前电视主播瑞安·伊莱贾(Ryan Elijah)角逐该席位,后者直到8月晚初选后才正式参选。民主党内部也对资金流向有所抱怨。
“They should be nervous about this race,” Bale Dalton, the centrist Democrat running in the seat, told CNN this week. Dalton, a former NASA chief of staff and Navy captain, is battling former TV anchor Ryan Elijah, who only officially entered the race in August after the late primary. There is some grumbling among Democrats, too, over where the money is going.
参与温和派“蓝狗联盟”(Blue Dog Coalition)政治分支工作的民主党操盘手菲尔·加德纳(Phil Gardner)告诉CNN,他对全国民主党拒绝为其背书的候选人达尔顿在佛罗里达州第7选区投入资金感到愤怒。
One Democratic operative — Phil Gardner, who is involved with the moderate Blue Dog Coalition’s political arm — told CNN he is furious that national Democrats have refused to spend for their endorsed candidate, Dalton, in Florida’s 7th District.
他抱怨民主党人花钱支持一位在重新划分选区后的佛罗里达州选区竞选,而该选区极难获胜。(其他民主党人私下认为,现在米尔斯不再是他们的共和党对手,第七选区太难翻盘了。)“他们不愿做出艰难但符合战略的决定,为贝尔提供资金支持,并承认达伦·索托不会获胜……他们做出的决定是基于党团政治,而非翻转众议院的战略,”加德纳说。
He complained Democrats have spent money to back an incumbent in a redrawn Florida seat that’s extremely difficult to win. (Other Democrats privately believe the 7th District is too difficult to flip, now that Mills is no longer their GOP opponent.)“They are unwilling to make the tough but strategic decision to spend for Bale and admit that Darren Soto is not going to win… They are making a decision driven by caucus politics and not by the strategy of flipping the House,” Gardner said.
或许没有哪场竞选能比佛罗里达州第二十五选区更能体现这最后阶段调动资金的混乱局面。
And perhaps no race better encapsulates the late scramble to move money around than Florida’s 25th District.
该选区今年早些时候也经过重新划分,变得有利于共和党,但民主党籍众议员贾里德·莫斯科维茨在经受了数百万美元攻击性广告的轰炸后,仍保持竞争力。
The district was also redrawn to favor Republicans earlier this year, but Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz remains in contention after weathering millions in attack ads.
周一,与特朗普关系密切的“不后退”政治行动委员会最初削减了超过200万美元的剩余广告预订,在该委员会已在该竞选中花费超过700万美元后,一度没有未来的广告时段。
On Monday, the Trump-aligned No Going Back PAC initially cut more than $2 million from its remaining bookings, briefly leaving it with no future ad time after spending more than $7 million on the contest.
但周四,“不后退”政治行动委员会戏剧性地重返战场,在中期选举最后几天增加了超过600万美元的广告预订。
But on Thursday, No Going Back PAC dramatically re-entered the contest, adding more than $6 million to its bookings over the final days of the midterms.