President Aleksandar Vucic is mimicking his ally Vladimir Putin’s plan to extend his grip on power. He wants to swap the presidency for the prime minister’s job.

But with the opposition gaining traction for the first time in more than a decade, even Putin has expressed some doubt about the outcome of Sunday’s snap vote.

In an hourlong phone call on the eve of Vucic’s resignation from the presidency last month, Putin questioned whether his fellow strongman was sure about the transition.

“He floored me with his rational approach” that included questions about possible challenges along the way and the reliability of his allies, Vucic said in a recent interview in Belgrade. “I said, I hope everything will be fine.”Yet it’s no sure thing for the Balkan nation of 6.5 million, whose hopes of joining the European Union any time soon are withering. It’s electing lawmakers for its 250-seat parliament in a contest that, according to polls, is down to Vucic’s dominant center-right Progressive Party and a nascent political movement born out of street protests led by university students. The latest surveys are split on the winner.

Sixteen smaller parties are also in the race but trail far behind in the polls. They range from liberal to conservative, from euroskeptic nationalists to pro-European Union groups.

Vucic, 56, called the election more than a year ahead of schedule after unrelenting anti-government rallies, triggered by the collapse of a train station canopy that that killed 16 people in 2024. University students spearheaded the protests, blaming corruption and incompetence among Vucic’s officials for the deaths. Hundreds of thousands of opposition supporters gathered in Belgrade Thursday night, one of the largest protest ever in the Balkan country.

Initially a diffuse protest movement channeling the public outrage, the group has coalesced into a political force, promoting activists who’ve become the biggest challenge to Serbia’s long-serving leader. They operate through a patchwork of “plenums,” or cells, without a distinct number one.

Only after Vucic set the Oct. 25 election date did the movement unveil its so-called Student List of candidates, a lineup of academics, entrepreneurs, workers and various professionals, including former central bank Governor Dejan Soskic.

“Never before was our country under an occupation from the inside, but unfortunately it is now,” said former basketball star and Euroleague Basketball president Dejan Bodiroga, 53, a Student List candidate. “We have the violence, arrogance, corruption that are eating away our state.”The group’s election pledges focus on fighting corruption, overhauling the judiciary, improving election conditions, media diversity and reversing years of democratic backsliding under Vucic.

Vucic has juggled Serbia’s EU bid with attracting investment from China, staying friendly with Russia and courting Donald Trump’s administration and allies in a “strategic dialog” with the US. That geopolitical balancing may remain even if the Student List candidates come to power.

The ruling Progressives trounced opponents in six previous parliamentary ballots since 2012, keeping the Student List cautious on sensitive issues like Serbia’s rejection of Kosovo’s unilateral secession, or whether the country should join western sanctions against Russia.

Nor is meeting EU membership conditions an immediate priority. Student List representatives say the country can decide on that in a plebiscite, if invited by the bloc. On Kosovo, they cite the constitution that defines the territory as Serbia’s southern province.

“It’s either Serbia or Mafia” is the Student List’s top slogan, with a focus on ousting Vucic’s regime where “personal interests are more important than lives of people and their future,” according to its manifesto.

“They call me evil. Why? Because your wages are three times bigger than before? Because we built so many new roads, schools, hospitals?”Vucic said at a recent campaign rally. “A vote for the Student List is a vote for the destruction of Serbia,” he added, blasting the group for not yet disclosing its candidate for premier.

While Vucic slams his opponents as an opaque, foreign-funded group paid to destabilize the country, the Student List pledges to restore the rule of law, break up monopolies, and review large infrastructure contracts signed under Vucic with little visibility. In Transparency International’s 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index, the Balkan country’s score was the lowest in two decades.

Vucic’s camp is touting achievements over the last dozen years that include tripling the nation’s economy, record low unemployment, unprecedented stability of the dinar, and rising salaries and pensions while keeping the public debt in check. The leadership also takes credit for Serbia’s first ever investment grade, from S&P Global Ratings.

He resigned as president eight months before his second mandate would’ve expired, counting on a return as prime minister to give him another four years in power.

Tensions are rising by the day and the opposition is already crying foul, alleging election irregularities such as voter intimidation or bribes by the incumbents. The Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe is sending a monitoring mission, as it did in earlier votes. Opposition activists will also be deployed at all stations across the country.

For his part, Putin has stated his preference in the Serbian vote. Despite occasional friction between Moscow and Belgrade, Russia’s leader has said he hoped Vucic will win because he pursues “careful policies and shows desire for cooperation with Russia. We certainly welcome that and will reciprocate.”