特朗普依赖虚假言论对选举产生质疑 总统散布关于排序选择投票制、投票机、计票以及过往选举结果的虚假说法,以此对选举的公正性提出质疑。
Trump Relies on Falsehoods to Cast Doubt on Elections The president has spread false claims about ranked-choice systems, voting machines, vote counting and past results to question the integrity of elections.
在其第二个任期内,总统特朗普几乎每天都在重复关于选举结果的谎言,或是对国家的投票系统产生怀疑。
In his second term, President Trump has seldom let a day go by without repeating lies about election results or casting doubt on the country’s voting system.
在某些情况下,这些虚假言论成了其政府干预中期选举所采取行动的前奏,例如在该州的共和党现任官员险败的情况下先发制人地试图阻止阿拉斯加州的选举结果,或者就选民名册问题起诉加利福尼亚州。
They are falsehoods that in some cases act as a prelude to actions his administration has taken to intervene in the midterm elections, like preemptively seeking to block election results in Alaska should the Republican incumbent narrowly lose or suing California over its voter rolls.
随着中期选举临近且国会控制权悬而未决,特朗普的攻击变本加厉。他大肆宣扬关于各州如何投票以及如何计票的阴谋论,并毫无根据地宣称过去的选举结果存在欺诈,这为他对11月选举的公正性提出质疑铺平了道路。以下是对近期一些言论的梳理。
Mr. Trump has only ramped up his attacks as the midterms near and as control of Congress hangs in the balance. He has amplified conspiracy theories about how votes are cast and how they are counted in various states and baselessly declared past election results fraudulent, paving the way for him to question the integrity of the November election. Here’s a guide to some recent claims.
言论内容:虚假。阿拉斯加州选民在2020年的一项投票公投中批准了排序选择投票制。并不存在“某个家伙坐在桌子后面直接挑选赢家”的情况。相反,选民会按偏好顺序列出候选人。没有任何证据表明该系统对某一个政党比另一个政党更有利。
What Was Said False. Alaska voters approved a ranked-choice voting system in a 2020 ballot initiative. There is no “guy sitting behind a table just picking a winner.”Rather, voters rank candidates by order of preference. There is no evidence that the system benefits one party over the other.
在排序选择投票制下,选民选择他们最喜欢的候选人,并可以标出他们的第二选择及后续选择。如果有一名候选人获得多数的第一选择票,该候选人直接胜出。但如果没有候选人获得多数票,得票最少的候选人将被淘汰,并将那些将该候选人列为第一选择的选民的选票重新分配给他们的下一个选择。这一过程不断重复,直到有人获得多数票。
Under a ranked-choice voting system, voters select their favorite candidate and can indicate their second and subsequent choices. If one candidate receives a majority of first-choice votes, that candidate wins outright. But if no candidate achieves a majority, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and the ballots of voters who ranked that candidate first are then reallocated to their next choice. The process repeats until someone receives a majority of votes.
当被要求提供证据证明排序选择投票制是一场民主党的“骗局”时,白宫列举了民主党人在2022年的阿拉斯加州和2018年的缅因州赢得众议院选举的事例。
Asked for evidence that ranked-choice voting was a Democratic “scam,” the White House cited Democrats’ winning House elections in Alaska in 2022 and Maine in 2018.
但在2022年的选举中,阿拉斯加选民还利用该系统选出了一名共和党参议员和一名共和党州长。两年后,选民们利用该系统选出了特朗普先生和一名共和党众议员。
But in the 2022 election, Alaska voters also used the system to elect a Republican senator and a Republican governor. Two years later, voters used the system to select Mr. Trump and a Republican representative.
根据无党派选举改革组织FairVote的统计,缅因州的2018年选举是近期四场选举之一,在这些选举中,首轮投票中排名第二的候选人在得票较少的候选人被淘汰后最终获胜。虽然那场比赛的获胜者是一名民主党人,但其他两场选举由共和党人获胜,还有一场由民主党人获胜。
The 2018 election in Maine was one of four recent elections in which a candidate in second place in the first round of voting ultimately won after candidates with fewer votes were eliminated. While the victor in that race was a Democrat, two other elections were won by Republicans and another by a Democrat, according to a tally by FairVote, a nonpartisan electoral reform group.
一些研究和民调显示,在2020年和2024年的选举中,特朗普先生更有可能成为排序选择投票的受益者,因为投给第三方候选人的选民比民主党候选人更青睐他。
Some research and polls show that Mr. Trump would have been a more likely beneficiary of ranked-choice voting in both the 2020 and 2024 elections, as voters who cast ballots for third-party candidates preferred him to the Democratic nominees.
排序选择投票在美国选举中仍然相对少见,扩大该制度的努力在近年来可能已经陷入停滞。但特朗普先生关于“每个人都在废除它”的说法是错误的。自2022年以来,已有十多个州(大多是共和党大本营)禁止了排序选择投票,但在已经实行该制度的司法管辖区,选民也拒绝了废除它的努力。目前,有两州(阿拉斯加州和缅因州)以及哥伦比亚特区在联邦和州级选举中使用排序选择投票,大约有三十多个城市在地方选举中使用该制度。
Ranked-choice voting is still relatively uncommon in American elections, and efforts to expand it may have stalled in recent years. But Mr. Trump is wrong that “everyone is repealing it.”More than a dozen states, largely Republican strongholds, have banned ranked-choice voting since 2022, but voters in jurisdictions where it is already in place have also rejected efforts to repeal it. Currently, two states (Alaska and Maine) and the District of Columbia use ranked-choice voting for federal and state elections and about three dozen cities use it for local elections.
2024年,阿拉斯加选民投票决定保留排序选择投票,明尼苏达州布卢明顿的选民也是如此。四个州的选民确实拒绝了改用排序选择投票的努力,密苏里州也禁止了这种做法,但有三个城市采纳了它。
In 2024, Alaska voters voted to retain ranked-choice voting, as did voters in Bloomington, Minn. Voters in four states did reject efforts to switch to ranked-choice voting, and Missouri banned the practice, but three cities adopted it.
虚假。特朗普先生毫无根据的选举说辞长期以来一直锁定亚利桑那州。在最近的一次集会上,他再次重复了关于该州2022年中期选举已被长期辟谣的虚假言论。
False. Mr. Trump’s baseless election claims have long zeroed in on Arizona. At a recent rally, he again repeated a long-debunked falsehood about the 2022 midterm election in the state.
在2022年选举日当天,技术故障打乱了计票工作,但没有干扰标记选票的过程。亚利桑那州马里科帕县223个投票中心中有71个中心的制表机受到了故障影响,这些机器通过光学扫描和清点选票来代替人工计票。
On Election Day in 2022, technical glitches disrupted the vote counting, but not the ballot-marking process. The glitches affected tabulation machines, which optically scan and count ballots in lieu of hand-counting, in 71 of 223 voting centers in Maricopa County, Ariz.
该县的两名同为共和党籍的官员在社交媒体上表示,选民仍然可以将选票投入安全箱,官员们会在当晚晚些时候将选票送往中央计票中心。这两名官员当天在记者会上强调,“每个人都依然能投票”、“这一切都并不表明存在任何舞弊”,并且安全箱选项是“一种运作方式与提前投票完全相同的故障保护机制”。官员们在当天晚些时候报告称,他们已经查明了故障原因:一些打印机没有在选票上印出足够深的标记。
Two county officials, both Republicans, said on social media that voters could still drop their ballots in a secure box and officials would take their ballots to a central tabulation center later that night. The officials emphasized in a news conference that day that “everyone is still getting to vote,” that “none of this indicates any fraud” and that the secure box option was a “fail safe that functions the exact same way as early voting.”Officials reported later that day that they had identified the cause of the glitch: Some printers were not producing dark-enough markings on ballots.
根据该县的选举后分析,这个问题在大多数投票点已于下午早些时候得到解决,总体而言,大约有1.67万张选票受到影响。
According to the county’s post-election analysis, the issue had been resolved at most sites by midafternoon and, overall, about 16,700 ballots were affected.
一名法官确实驳回了共和党延长三个小时投票时间的请求,并指出没有证据表明任何人无法投票。
A judge did deny a Republican Party request to keep the polls open for three additional hours, noting that there was no evidence that anyone had been unable to vote.
共和党州长候选人卡里·湖对该县提起诉讼,对她的落败提出异议,其部分辩称是技术故障是蓄意引起的,并导致了选举结果的改变。但一位州法官裁定,湖女士并未出具有力证据来支持这一断言。上诉法院维持了该裁决,州最高法院也驳回了她的上诉请求。
Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for governor, filed a lawsuit against the county disputing her loss, arguing in part that the glitches were caused intentionally and resulted in a change in outcome. But a state judge ruled that Ms. Lake produced no evidence supporting that assertion. An appeals court upheld that ruling, and the state’s supreme court denied her appeal request.
错误。在期中选举中,控制白宫的政党保持或扩大对国会某一院的控制权的情况虽然罕见,但并非史无前例。在特朗普的第一任期以及另外两次事件中,该党在接下来的大选中失去了总统职位。在另外三次事件中,该党则保留了总统职位。
False. It is rare but not unprecedented for the party in control of the White House to retain or expand control of one chamber of Congress in the midterm elections. In Mr. Trump’s first term and two other instances, the party lost the presidency in the next general election. In three other instances, the party retained it.
共和党在2018年中期选举中失去了众议院的40个席位,但在参议院增加了2个席位(这是否是一个“巨大”的增加见仁见智)。随后,特朗普先生在2020年的连任竞选中失利。
The Republican Party lost 40 seats in the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterms, but gained two in the Senate (whether that is a “tremendous” gain is a matter of opinion). Mr. Trump then lost his re-election bid in 2020.
在1998年的中期选举中,民主党赢得了5个众议院席位并保持了对参议院的控制,参议院两党力量对比没有净变化。随后,副总统阿尔·戈尔输掉了2000年的总统大选。
In the 1998 midterm election, Democrats gained five House seats and retained control of the Senate, with no net change in the balance of the upper chamber. Vice President Al Gore then lost the 2000 presidential election.
在2022年的中期选举中,民主党失去了9个众议院席位,并在参议院增加了1个席位。随后,副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯输掉了2024年的总统大选。按照特朗普先生的逻辑,哈里斯女士的落败也本该是“不可能的”。民主党在1914年和1962年的中期选举中失去了众议院席位并增加了参议院席位,并在1916年和1964年的大选中保留了对白宫的控制权。共和党在1970年的大选中失去了众议院席位并在参议院增加了2个席位,总统理查德·尼克松在1972年的连任竞选中获胜。
In the 2022 midterm election, Democrats lost nine House seats and gained one seat in the Senate. Vice President Kamala Harris then lost the 2024 presidential election. By Mr. Trump’s logic, Ms. Harris’s loss, too, should have been “impossible.”The Democrats lost seats in the House and gained seats in the Senate in the 1914 and 1962 midterm elections, and retained control of the White House in the 1916 and 1964 general elections. Republicans lost seats in the House and gained two seats in the Senate in the 1970 general election, and President Richard Nixon won his re-election campaign in 1972.
假。几个月来,特朗普先生一直援引6月洛杉矶市长初选——以及整个加利福尼亚州——计票缓慢的情况作为选举欺诈的证据,同时对细节进行了夸大。但在竞选中,候选人在初选计票中落后,随着更多选票被统计而后来居上,这种情况经常发生,其中包括特朗普先生作为候选人的选举。没有证据表明该初选被“操纵”。在最近的选举中,加利福尼亚州一直是计票速度最慢的州之一。这部分是因为它是人口最多的州,但在很大程度上是因为它的计票程序。
False. For months, Mr. Trump has long cited slow counting in the Los Angeles mayoral primary in June — and California in general — as evidence of election fraud, while embellishing details. But a candidate lagging in the initial count and then pulling ahead as more votes are tallied occurs quite often in races, including in elections in which Mr. Trump was a candidate. There is no evidence that the primary was “rigged.”In recent elections, California has been one of the slowest states to count results. That is in part because it is the most populous but largely because of its counting process.
加利福尼亚州严重依赖邮寄选票,由于官员需要核实签名并给选民纠正不符之处的机会,这延迟了计票工作。如果选票在选举日当天或之前加盖邮戳并在七天内收到,也可以被计入,且官员有30天的时间来统计选票。
California relies heavily on mail-in ballots, which delays vote counting as officials verify signatures and give voters the chance to correct discrepancies. Ballots can also be counted if they are postmarked by Election Day and received within seven days, and officials have 30 days to count votes.
在洛杉矶6月的市长初选中,投票结束后统计的第一批选票显示,市长凯伦·巴斯以超过11万7000票领先,真人秀明星斯宾塞·普拉特以约8万6000票位居第二,洛杉矶市议员尼蒂娅·拉曼以近6万2000票排在第三。随着选举之夜更多选票的统计,普拉特先生保持了对拉曼女士的领先优势。
In the June mayoral primary in Los Angeles, the first batch of votes counted after polls closed showed Mayor Karen Bass leading with more than 117,000 votes, the reality TV star Spencer Pratt in second with about 86,000 votes and a member of the Los Angeles City Council, Nithya Raman, in third with nearly 62,000 votes. Mr. Pratt maintained his lead over Ms. Raman as more votes were counted on election night.
拉曼女士在大约晚上11点发表了讲话,当时她的得票数超过了8万1千票,相比之下,巴斯女士获得近14万2000张选票,普拉特先生获得近11万4000张选票。在演讲快结束时,她开始流泪,感谢父母、公婆、丈夫和孩子们的支持与耐心。她没有承认失败,而是指出“今晚可能不会给我们这场竞选的最终答案”,并且“在接下来的几天里,还将有数千张选票被统计”。
Ms. Raman spoke at about 11 p.m., when her vote count stood at over 81,000 compared with nearly 142,000 ballots for Ms. Bass and nearly 114,000 for Mr. Pratt. Toward the end of her speech, she began tearing up as she thanked her parents, in-laws, husband and children for their support and patience. She did not concede defeat and instead noted that “tonight may not give us a final answer on this race” and that “many thousands of votes will be counted in the days ahead.”
随着更多选票的清点,普拉特先生在第二的位置上保持了几天,但他的领先优势开始缩小,五天后拉曼女士反超在前。最终,巴斯女士和拉曼女士分别以百分之34和百分之29的得票率晋级大选。身为共和党员的普拉特先生获得了约百分之25的选票,这与特朗普先生在2024年大选该市的得票率相当。
Mr. Pratt remained in second place for a few days as more votes were counted, but his lead began to narrow and Ms. Raman pulled ahead five days later. In the end, Ms. Bass and Ms. Raman advanced to the general election with 34 percent and 29 percent of the vote. Mr. Pratt, a Republican, received about 25 percent of the vote, which was comparable to Mr. Trump’s own vote share in the city in the 2024 election.
这一进展并没有让当地政治观察人士感到意外,他们指出,拉曼女士较年轻的进步派支持者往往比尽早投票或亲自投票的年长保守派投票更晚。其他人则指出,对于一个极度自由派的城市中的初次参选者来说,普拉特先生获得第三名和相应的得票率依然令人印象深刻。
This development was not a surprise to local political observers, who noted that Ms. Raman’s younger progressive supporters tended to vote later than older conservatives who cast their ballots early or in person. Others have noted that Mr. Pratt’s third-place finish and vote share were nonetheless impressive for a first-time candidate in a very liberal city.
琳达·邱是《时代》周刊的记者,专注于核查政客和公众人物的言论。她从事公众人物报道和事实核查工作已有近十年。
Linda Qiu is a Times reporter who specializes in fact-checking statements made by politicians and public figures. She has been reporting and fact-checking public figures for nearly a decade.