8月下旬，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布暂停征收部分牛肉关税90天，使得进口牛肉成本降低，尤其是来自巴西的牛肉。
In late August, United States President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on certain beef tariffs, making beef cheaper to import, particularly from Brazil.
该决定被定性为降低消费者价格的一种方式，但对许多美国牧场主来说，这无异于背叛，因为他们正准备将牛只推向市场。
That decision was framed as a way to bring down prices for consumers, but it landed as a betrayal for many US ranchers, who were getting ready to take their cattle to market.
目前尚难判断该决定最终将如何影响杂货价格，但对牧场主的冲击是即时的：牛只拍卖价格暴跌，暂时压低了牧场主的利润。美国牧场主协会、全国牛仔牛肉协会和农场局——均为代表牧场主的会员组织——都反对这一决定。
It is too soon to tell how the decision will ultimately affect grocery prices, but the impact on ranchers was immediate: prices at cattle auctions plummeted, temporarily lowering ranchers’ profits. The United States Cattlemen’s Association, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and the Farm Bureau, all member organisations that represent ranchers, opposed the decision.
农村地区的共和党国会议员也与该决定划清界限，但目前尚不清楚牧场主将如何在中期选举中投票——以及这些选票是否会决定选举结果。
Rural Republican members of Congress also distanced themselves, but it is not yet clear how ranchers will vote in the midterms — or whether those votes will decide races.
堪萨斯州普雷蒂普雷里的牧场主查德·贝辛格对进口牛肉会产生重大影响持怀疑态度。
Chad Basinger, a rancher in Pretty Prairie, Kansas, is sceptical that the imports will have a significant impact.
“我知道有人会说：‘那我就投给另一个党’或者‘我不投票了’或者‘这个政府真的让我失望’。所以是的，中期选举中会有人倒向另一边。但总体而言，我认为不会有那么大的影响，”贝辛格说。
“I know there’s people that have said, ‘Well I’m just gonna vote for the other party’ or ‘I’m not gonna vote’ or ‘This administration’s really let me down’. So yes, there will be people that swing the other way in the midterms. But overall I don’t think it’ll be that much,” Basinger said.
贝辛格表示，牧场主也会权衡政府的其他举措，例如10月19日在堪萨斯州宣布的80亿美元农场救助资金。
Ranchers will also be weighing the administration’s other actions, Basinger said, such as the $8bn in farm relief announced in Kansas on October 19.
贝辛格所在的堪萨斯州众议院选区预计在中期选举中将稳操胜券地保持共和党席位。但堪萨斯州面临一场意外胶着的参议院竞选，而在其他地方的众议院选区，牧场主可能会发现自己更接近政治漩涡的中心：蒙大拿州、爱荷华州、得克萨斯州和科罗拉多州的潜在摇摆选区都位于养牛区。
Basinger’s House of Representatives district in Kansas is expected to remain safely Republican in the midterms. But Kansas faces an unexpectedly tight Senate race and ranchers in House districts elsewhere may find themselves closer to the political fray: potential swing districts in Montana, Iowa, Texas and Colorado are all in cattle country.
尽管如此，牧场主单独决定选举结果的可能性不大：牧场主连同更广泛的农民群体，在农村选民中所占比例正在萎缩，实际形成的投票群体也比公众想象中要小。
Still, it is unlikely that ranchers alone will decide elections: ranchers — along with farmers more broadly — represent a shrinking percentage of rural voters and a smaller voting bloc in practice than in the public imagination.
美国牛群存栏量接近1951年以来的最低水平，牧场主数量也随牲畜数量一同减少。观察人士担心，关税、燃油价格和干旱带来的持续不确定性，可能导致牧场主群体进一步萎缩。
America’s cattle herd is near its smallest size since 1951 and the number of ranchers has declined alongside the number of livestock. Observers worry that ongoing uncertainty fuelled by tariffs, fuel prices and drought may cause the ranching population to shrink further.
得克萨斯农工大学农业经济学家、牧场主顾问大卫·安德森表示，今年的高价本应给牧场主信心，让他们投资未来、扩大牛群。然而，降低进口成本可能反而促使牧场主朝相反方向行动。
David Anderson, an agricultural economist at Texas A&M University who advises ranchers, said that high prices this year should have given ranchers the confidence to invest in the future and expand their herds. Making imports cheaper, however, may have helped nudge ranchers in the opposite direction.
安德森说：“这确实与扩大国内生产的市场信号背道而驰。这让很多人非常愤怒。” 关税变化增加波动性 这并非特朗普关税首次影响牛肉供应。去年，总统对巴西——牛肉关键贸易伙伴——加征50%关税，推高了进口巴西瘦牛肉的成本，这种瘦牛肉常与美国肥牛肉混合制成汉堡肉饼，是大多数家庭的主食。
“It really works against the market signal to expand and produce more domestically,” Anderson said. “That got a lot of people pretty angry.”Tariff changes add volatility This is not the first time that Trump’s tariffs have impacted cattle supplies. Last year, the president added a 50 percent tariff on Brazil, a key trade partner for beef, raising the cost of importing Brazilian lean beef, which is often mixed with fatty US beef to make hamburger patties, a staple in most homes.
今年2月，特朗普允许更多阿根廷牛肉免税进口。8月，他对巴西和巴拉圭采取了相同措施。
In February, Trump allowed more tariff-free beef imports from Argentina. In August, he did the same for Brazil and Paraguay.
这两次关税调整都导致牛肉期货市场价格迅速波动，该市场往往因新闻周期而剧烈震荡。
Both tariff changes led to swift price swings in cattle futures markets, which are often volatile in response to the news cycle.
牛价今年也因更基本的供需驱动因素而变动：肉类加工商关厂、上月底因美国移民与海关执法局（ICE）在堪萨斯州肉类加工厂（全美第二大）的执法行动导致劳动力短缺，以及因新世界螺旋蝇疫情关闭后南部边境重新开放。
Cattle prices also moved this year in response to more fundamental drivers of supply and demand: plant closures by meatpackers, labour shortages late last month related to ICE actions at Kansas packing plants, the second-largest in the country, and the reopening of the southern border after a closure due to New World screwworm disease.
从大局来看，美国牛群存栏量的缩减与短期价格波动关系不大，更多是受干旱周期影响，而随着气温升高导致蒸发量增加，干旱周期正变得更加剧烈。
Big picture, the shrinking US cattle herd has less to do with short-term price changes and more to do with drought cycles, which are growing more intense as warming temperatures increase evaporation.
尽管如此，关税变化仍增加了不确定性。“过去六周这一直是个热门话题，”安德森说。“这只是增加了一点不确定性、波动性——或者是担忧和压力。”今年，许多牧场主准备出售牛只之际遭遇额外的价格波动，导致利润降低、风险增加。
Still, tariff changes add uncertainty. “This has been a hot topic for the last six weeks,” said Anderson. “It just adds a little more uncertainty or volatility — or worries or stress.”This year, extra price volatility as many ranchers prepared to sell meant ranchers faced lower profits and more risk.
贝辛格表示，对许多资深牧场主而言，关税公告令人沮丧，但并非生存威胁。
Basinger says that for many established ranchers, the tariff announcement was frustrating, but not existential.
“人们很愤怒，他们有权愤怒。但他们不会改变策略，”他说。贝辛格表示，对大多数牧场主来说，进口牛肉不会成为今年影响其牛群决策的最大因素。
“People are upset. They have a right to be upset. But they’re not going to change their strategy,” he said. For most ranchers, Basinger said, the imports would not be the biggest factor shaping decisions about their herds this year.
贝辛格说，价格波动影响更大的可能是下一代。当今大多数牧场主都在盼望退休。他们的继承人必须决定是继续经营牧场，还是出售家族土地。其他有志于从事养牛业的人也在关注这个行业。
Where price volatility may matter more, Basinger said, is for the next generation. Most of today’s ranchers are eyeing retirement. Their heirs must decide whether to make a go of ranching or sell their family’s land. Other aspiring ranchers are also watching the industry.
“如果你看到你爸赚不到钱，或者别人赚不到钱……这可不是轻松的活儿！”贝辛格说。“必须极具吸引力，才会有人想跳进来，说‘我要当牧场主，在寒冬腊月去砸冰，而不待在暖屋里’。” 创纪录的收入与创纪录的成本 今年，美国牛只供应偏紧，尽管进口量增加且市场发生其他变化，牧场主仍卖出了创纪录的高价牛只。
“If you’re seeing your dad not make money, or somebody else not make money…it’s not easy work!”Basinger said. “It has to be very enticing for somebody to want to jump in and be like, ‘I’m gonna be a rancher and go break ice in the middle of winter when it’s cold and I could be inside’.”Record revenue and record costs This year, low US cattle supplies meant that ranchers commanded record-high cattle prices, despite added imports and other market shifts.
但高收入并不总意味着巨额利润：许多牧场主连年亏损经营，然后指望靠几个丰收年偿还债务或扩大牛群。今年，利润低于预期，因为牧场主同时面临高昂的成本。
But high revenue doesn’t always mean huge profits: Many ranchers operate at a loss for years in a row. Then, they rely on a few good years to pay down debts or expand their herds. This year, profits were lower than hoped, because ranchers also faced high costs.
贷款利率高企，与伊朗的冲突导致牧场主在燃料和化肥上支付了额外费用。美国大部分牧场地区遭遇干旱，使他们不得不花更多钱购买饲料。
Interest rates on loans are high and the war with Iran meant ranchers paid extra for fuel and fertiliser. A drought across much of America’s ranchland meant they paid more for feed.
在堪萨斯州和内布拉斯加州等地，牧场主还面临破坏性野火，像“农场救援”这样的援助组织协调了干草捐赠。
In states such as Kansas and Nebraska, ranchers also faced destructive wildfires and aid groups like Farm Rescue coordinated hay donations.
尽管如此，贝辛格表示，饲养母牛和犊牛的牧场主今年总体状况良好。他在堪萨斯州看到牧场主利用利润进行维修和升级。他说，今年的高牛价提供了帮助。“但这种帮助需要再持续一段时间，才能让他们获得更大的优势，”他说。
Still, Basinger said, ranchers who raise cows and calves generally did well this year. In Kansas, he is seeing ranchers use profits to make repairs and upgrades. He said this year’s high cattle prices have been helping. “But it needs to help for a little longer to give them more of an edge,” he said.
更大的优势可能意味着，例如有足够的资金进行更大额的购买，比如从邻近牧场购买土地，为不断扩大的牛群腾出空间。
More of an edge might mean, for example, enough money for bigger purchases, like buying land from a neighbouring ranch to make room for a growing herd.
然而，牧场用地价格日益高昂。一旦上市出售，外部投资者往往能出价高于牧场主，这可能导致用于养牛的土地减少。这只是导致美国牛群规模几十年来持续萎缩的又一重压力。
Rangeland, however, is increasingly expensive. When it is up for sale, outside investors can often pay more than ranchers, which can mean less land for cattle. That’s just one more pressure shrinking the US herd decade after decade.
牧场主原本指望2026年会是扭转局面的一年。然而到目前为止，“我们确实没有看到牛群扩张的多少迹象，”安德森说。
Ranchers had hoped that 2026 would be a turnaround year. So far, however, “we really don’t have much evidence of herd expansion,” Anderson said.