他担任以色列总理的时间可能只剩下几周，但本雅明·内塔尼亚胡并未完蛋。他正准备在未来几周内对伊朗发动另一轮大规模空袭，或许会与美国联手，即使他在10月27日的大选中落败也是如此。事实上，这种可能面临的失败很可能正是在驱动他的算计。
IT IS POSSIBLE he has only a few more weeks as Israel’s prime minister but Binyamin Netanyahu is not finished. He is gearing up for another series of major air strikes on Iran in the coming weeks, perhaps alongside America, even if he loses the election on October 27th. In fact, the prospect of such a loss may well be driving his calculations.
10月21日，内塔尼亚胡对以色列国防军（IDF）军官学校的毕业生表示，伊朗正在再次研发核武器。他坚称，“只有一种方法能彻底消除这一威胁。推翻伊朗政权。这是我对国防军、摩萨德和安全部门的指令。”仅从言辞上看，这已构成升级。在今年早些时候以色列（和美国）与伊朗的冲突期间，他政府的官方目标是“创造条件”以推动政权垮台。如今，以色列安全首脑认为他们无法从外部推翻该政权。他们清楚地表示，这取决于伊朗人民。但迹象显示，内塔尼亚胡仍将尝试。
On October 21st Mr Netanyahu told graduates of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) officer school that Iran was, once again, developing nuclear weapons. There is, he insisted, “only one way to remove this threat once and for all. Overthrow the regime in Iran. And that is my directive to the IDF, the Mossad and the security branches.”In rhetoric alone this already marked an escalation. During Israel’s (and America’s) war with Iran earlier this year, his government’s official aim was to “create the conditions” for the regime’s fall. Today Israel’s security chiefs believe they cannot topple the regime from the outside. It is, they are clear, up to the Iranian people. But the signs are that Mr Netanyahu is going to try nonetheless.
以色列情报官员已接令准备针对伊朗打击的新目标清单。大量以色列军机一直在伊朗边境附近飞行。此类机动加上内塔尼亚胡的好战姿态，可能挑衅伊朗先发制人。对总理而言，那将是理想局面，能为他提供铁一般的开战借口。
Israel’s intelligence officials have been ordered to prepare new lists of targets for strikes in Iran. Large numbers of Israeli aircraft have been flying close to Iran’s borders. Such manoeuvres, along with Mr Netanyahu’s bellicosity, could provoke Iran to strike first. For the prime minister, that would be ideal, providing him with a cast-iron excuse for war.
即使内塔尼亚胡如民调预测般在10月27日大选中落败，他也不太可能因此打消念头。事实上，明知自己任期所剩无几，反而可能给他下令发动袭击提供进一步动力。对伊朗的打击将招致伊朗报复，很可能以导弹袭击以色列城市的形式出现。这可能会干扰其对手组建新联合政府的尝试，并迫使一些反对派领袖以国家紧急状态之名加入由他领导的团结政府。
Even if Mr Netanyahu loses the election on October 27th, as the polls predict he will, he is unlikely to be deterred. Indeed, the knowledge that he has only a short time left in office could give him further impetus to order an attack. Strikes on Iran would draw an Iranian retaliation, probably in the form of missiles descending on Israel’s cities. This could disrupt the attempts of his rivals to form a new coalition themselves and pressure some of the opposition leaders to join a unity government with him in the name of national emergency.
然而，内塔尼亚胡并非拥有完全的行动自由。迄今为止，有几个障碍挡在他的面前。最顽固的是唐纳德·特朗普：以色列总理觉得，未经美国总统首肯，自己无法发动袭击。自4月8日宣布与伊朗达成首次停火以来，特朗普已拒绝了内塔尼亚胡恢复空袭的恳请。即使美国再次袭击伊朗，以色列也被迫置身事外。
Mr Netanyahu does not have free rein to act, however. Several obstacles have stood in his way until now. The most obdurant is Donald Trump: the Israeli prime minister has not felt able to attack without the go-ahead from the American president. Since announcing the first ceasefire with Iran on April 8th Mr Trump has rebuffed Mr Netanyahu’s entreaties to allow Israel to resume strikes. Even when America attacked Iran again, Israel was forced to remain on the sidelines.
这种情况可能正在改变。10月18日，特朗普为内塔尼亚胡背书，称他是“伟大的战士总理，也是打击伊朗伊斯兰共和国、争取和平的更伟大伙伴”。他警告称，如果伊朗不“迅速改弦易辙”，美国将不得不“很快完成任务”。他接着说，如果以色列由“比比（内塔尼亚胡的昵称）以外的任何人”领导，“美国将不得不亲自做这项工作，而我不倾向于这样做。”一天后，美国国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯访问了以色列南部一处美军战机驻扎的空军基地，并在那里秘密会见了内塔尼亚胡。
That may be changing. On October 18th Mr Trump endorsed Mr Netanyahu, calling him a “Great Warrior Prime Minister, and an even greater Partner for Peace in combatting the Islamic Republic of Iran.”He warned that if Iran did not “change their ways, rapidly” America would have to “soon finish the job.”If Israel is led by “anyone other than Bibi”, he continued, “America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so.”A day later, Pete Hegseth, America’s secretary of war, visited an airbase in southern Israel where American warplanes are operating and met there in secret with Mr Netanyahu.
但即使特朗普现在倾向于与以色列联手出击，美国的海湾盟友构成了第二个挑战。他们正试图劝阻特朗普。据悉，他们已获知美国政府正准备在11月3日中期选举后发动另一轮打击。美国已悄悄从沙特阿拉伯及其他海湾国家的大使馆和军事基地撤离人员。熟悉美海湾会谈的人士称，目标是进行一场持续数天的短期行动，重点打击伊朗的经济目标。
But even if Mr Trump is now inclined to attack alongside Israel, America’s Gulf allies pose a second challenge. They are trying to dissuade him. They have been informed that the American administration is preparing another round of strikes after midterm elections on November 3rd. America has quietly withdrawn personnel from embassies and military bases in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. People familiar with the talks between America and the Gulf states say the goal is a brief campaign, lasting several days, which focuses on economic targets in Iran.
2月份，一些海湾国家曾敦促特朗普不要对伊朗采取军事行动；另一些国家则态度较为矛盾——他们既担心这样做会惹恼特朗普，又希望与伊朗直接对抗。但这一次，情况已经非常明确：伊朗已经威胁称，如果战争再次爆发，将会对海湾地区的基础设施发动更具破坏性的攻击。即便是该地区那些立场更为强硬的领导人，也意识到战斗的持续时间将会远远超过特朗普所预测的“三天”。
In February some Gulf states urged Mr Trump not to strike Iran. Others were more ambivalent, fearing they might alienate him and keen to confront Iran. There is no ambiguity this time. Iran has threatened another, more destructive round of attacks on Gulf infrastructure if the war resumes. And even the more hawkish leaders in the region fear the fighting would last far longer than Mr Trump’s Panglossian prediction of three days.
这些国家更倾向于维持现状：美国应继续封锁伊朗的港口，并为通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮提供护航。沙特阿拉伯尤其担心局势进一步升级；该国目前已经在努力抵御也门境内由伊朗支持的胡塞武装组织的袭击，他们担心如果伊朗也对沙特发动轰炸，自己的防空系统将会不堪重负。
They would prefer to stick with the status quo: America should continue to blockade Iran’s ports and escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia is particularly worried about the prospect of another escalation. The kingdom is already struggling to repel attacks from the Houthis, an Iran-backed militia in Yemen. They worry their air defences will be overwhelmed if Iran starts bombing them too.
内塔尼亚胡面临的第三个障碍来自国内。2025年6月以及今年2月以色列对伊朗发动战争时，全国上下以及以色列的安全机构都支持他的决策；但这一次，他可能无法获得同样的支持。以色列的情报部门并不认为伊朗已经重新启动了核计划，也不认为当前存在任何迫在眉睫的威胁需要立即发动战争。军方将领们对内塔尼亚胡的动机持怀疑态度；尤其是以色列国防军（IDF）负责人埃亚尔·扎米尔中将未被邀请参加内塔尼亚胡与赫格塞斯的会谈，这一事实更是加剧了他们的疑虑。
The third obstacle to Mr Netanyahu lies at home. When Israel went to war against Iran in June 2025 and February this year, the country and its security establishment were behind him. He would not enjoy the same level of support this time. Israel’s intelligence community does not accept that the Iranians have restarted their nuclear programme, nor that there is any imminent threat that currently justifies going to war. The generals do not trust Mr Netanyahu’s motives. The fact that Lieutenant-General Eyal Zamir, the head of the IDF, was left out of the meeting between Messrs Netanyahu and Hegseth has stoked these suspicions.
内塔尼亚胡面临的第四个绊脚石是即将到来的选举。他或许将其视为发动战争的理由，但如果民调成真，他在任的日子已屈指可数。据《经济学人》民调追踪显示，由前将军加迪·艾森科特领导的新兴中右翼政党“亚沙尔”有望在以色列议会（克内塞特）赢得22个席位。内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团预计将获得21个席位。
The fourth stumbling block for Mr Netanyahu is the upcoming election. He may see it as a reason to rush to war but, if the polls are borne out, his days in office are numbered. According to The Economist’s poll tracker, Yashar, a newish centre-right party led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former general, is likely to win 22 seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Likud, Mr Netanyahu’s party, is on track for 21 seats.
他领导的执政联盟看来不大可能赢得多数席位。艾森科特或许能组建少数派联盟，但这只有在他的反对派同僚同意依靠阿拉伯政党支持的情况下才可能实现，而其中一些人目前已排除这种可能。
His ruling coalition looks unlikely to win a majority. Mr Eisenkot could form a minority coalition, but only if his fellow opposition leaders agree to rely on the support of the Arab parties, which some of them have so far ruled out.
如果反对派无法迅速组建新政府，内塔尼亚胡将继续担任看守总理数周甚至数月。但无论是安全领域专业人士还是反对党领袖，都可能指责内塔尼亚胡以虚假借口将以色列拖入另一场战争。左倾的民主党领袖、前以色列国防军副参谋长亚伊尔·戈兰表示，内塔尼亚胡在军官学校的讲话“妄想症般”，意味着他现在已成为“以色列的危险”。
Mr Netanyahu will stay on for some weeks or even months as a caretaker prime minister if his opponents are unable to form a new government quickly. But both security professionals and opposition party leaders may claim that Mr Netanyahu is dragging Israel into another war on false pretenses. Yair Golan, leader of the left-leaning Democrats and himself a deputy head of the IDF, says that Mr Netanyahu’s announcement at the officers’ school was “delusional” and means he is now a “danger to Israel”.
他认为，扎米尔将军能否对抗内塔尼亚胡“至关重要”。他接着说，迅速组建新政府势在必行：“没有时间进行政治讨价还价。” 与伊朗的战争并非唯一的安全隐患。被占领的约旦河西岸地区也处于爆发边缘，那里以色列定居者在以色列国防军默许支持下袭击巴勒斯坦平民的事件数月来持续上升。10月23日，巴勒斯坦枪手在希伯伦附近伏击了一个以色列国防军检查站，打死两名士兵。
He reckons that General Zamir’s ability to stand up to Mr Netanyahu is “critical”. Forming a new government quickly is essential, he continues: “There’s no time for political bargaining.”A war with Iran is not the only security issue at stake. The occupied West Bank, where attacks by Israeli settlers on Palestinian civilians, often with tacit support from the IDF, have been on the rise for months, is also on the brink of exploding. On October 23rd Palestinian gunmen ambushed an IDF checkpoint near Hebron, killing two soldiers.
作为回应，内塔尼亚胡下令对约旦河西岸实施全面封锁，并逐户搜查、驱逐巴勒斯坦家庭。
In response Mr Netanyahu ordered a complete lockdown of the West Bank and house-to-house searches and evictions of Palestinian homes.
这在一定程度上是选举期间的夸大言论。以色列国防军目前在多个战线都已超负荷，包括它在加沙、黎巴嫩和叙利亚占领的缓冲区。它没有能力在约旦河西岸开展如此大范围的行动。迄今为止，它只在希伯伦的一个社区进行行动。但以色列国防军官员已警告数月，称定居者的袭击和抢占土地可能引发更大规模的冲突。如果代表定居者的强硬右派部长担心自己很快会被赶下台，那么在政府更迭的过渡期内点燃约旦河西岸的动机只会增加。■
This was partly election bluster. The IDF is currently overstretched on multiple fronts, including in the buffer-zones it occupies in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. It does not have the capacity for such a wide operation in the West Bank. So far it is operating in one neighbourhood in Hebron. But IDF officers have been warning for months that the settler attacks and land-grabs could provoke a wider conflagration. If the hard-right ministers representing the settlers fear they could soon be turfed out, the motivation to set the West Bank alight in the twilight period between governments will only grow. ■