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曾向MAGA靠拢的塞尔维亚民族主义领导人以压倒性劣势败选A Serbian Nationalist Leader Who Courted MAGA Just Lost in a Landslide

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周日,在塞尔维亚贝尔格莱德,塞尔维亚民族主义领导人亚历山大·武契奇承认在议会选举中落败后,民众为此庆祝。Armin Durgut/美联社People celebrate after Serbian nationalist leader Aleksandar Vucic conceded defeat in the parliamentary election in Belgrade, Serbia, on Sunday. Armin Durgut/AP

塞尔维亚强人亚历山大·武契奇是一名民族主义者,他与唐纳德·特朗普和弗拉基米尔·普京建立了联系,并淡化本国在1990年代的战争罪行。周日,他在大选中承认败给了由学生主导的反腐败运动支持的一组候选人。

Serbian strongman Aleksandar Vucic, a nationalist who has cultivated ties to Donald Trump and Vladmir Putin and has downplayed his country’s 1990s war crimes, conceded defeat in elections Sunday to a slate of candidates backed by a student-led anti-corruption movement.

这一结果与匈牙利反对派领导人彼得·马扎尔4月击败长期执政的匈牙利总理欧尔班·维克托有广泛相似之处。武契奇与欧尔班一样,煽动民族主义情绪,并致力于将自己的事业与特朗普的事业联系起来。

The result has broad similarities to Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar’s April defeat of longtime Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Vucic, like Orban, ginned up nationalist sentiments and worked to link his cause to Trump’s.

继匈牙利之后,塞尔维亚计划今年主办保守派政治行动会议(CPAC)聚会。美国极右翼网红近日涌入贝尔格莱德支持武契奇。他获得了“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)阵营人物如小唐纳德·特朗普的支持,后者去年在自己的播客节目中对塞尔维亚总统进行了阿谀奉承的采访。武契奇还聘用了特朗普圈子的游说人士,他们将塞尔维亚人描述为“支持特朗普的基督徒”——这一描述将他们与附近波斯尼亚和科索沃的穆斯林区分开来,后者曾在过去的塞尔维亚侵略下受难。

Serbia, following in Hungary’s footsteps, plans to host a gathering of the Conservative Political Action Conference this year. Far-right influencers from the US flocked to Belgrade in recent days to support Vucic. He has enjoyed support from MAGA figures like Donald Trump Jr, who last year used his podcast to conduct a fawning interview with the Serbian president. And Vucic has employed Trumpworld lobbyists who have described Serbs as “pro-Trump Christians”—a characterization that distinguishes them from the Muslims in nearby Bosnia and Kosovo who suffered under past Serbian aggression.

近年来,武契奇不再承认塞尔维亚在1990年代的战争罪行。上个月,他允许拉特科·姆拉迪奇——这名因监督1995年7月斯雷布雷尼察大屠杀(8000多名波斯尼亚人被处决)而被国际法庭判处种族灭绝罪的塞尔维亚将军——在塞尔维亚首都举行军事荣誉葬礼。

Vucic in recent years has backed away from acknowledging Serbian war crimes in the 1990s. Last month he allowed Ratko Mladic—a Serb general convicted of genocide by an international tribunal for overseeing the July 1995 Srebrenica massacre in which more than 8,000 Bosnians were executed—to be buried with military honors in the Serbian capital.

据报道,武契奇还施压政府官员协助推进特朗普女婿贾里德·库什纳提出的一项计划,即在贝尔格莱德建设一座耗资5亿美元的酒店综合体,塞尔维亚批评人士称这是为讨好美国总统家族而进行的非法努力。

Vucic also reportedly pressed government officials to help advance a plan pushed by Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, to build a $500 million hotel complex in Belgrade, in what Serbian critics called an illegal effort to placate the American president’s family.

武契奇自2012年以来一直主导塞尔维亚政坛,此前曾同时担任总统和总理,他在上月卸任总统并宣布提前大选后,试图重返总理职位。许多观察人士认为,在塞尔维亚民主倒退的背景下,武契奇将保住权力。周日投票前,外界普遍担心会出现舞弊、恐吓甚至暴力。但结果却是,在大规模投票率的推动下,武契奇以明显的压倒性劣势落败,引发贝尔格莱德狂欢式的庆祝活动。

Vucic has dominated Serbian politics since 2012, serving previously as both president and prime minister, the job he was attempting to return to after stepping down from the presidency last month and calling a snap election. Many analysts believed that amid democratic backsliding in Serbia, Vucic would retain power. And there were widespread fears of fraud, intimidation, or even violence on Sunday. But instead, amid massive turnout, Vucic lost in an apparent landslide, setting off wild celebrations in Belgrade.

“很明显,我们输掉了这次选举,”武契奇在公开讲话中表示,当时票数仍在统计中。

“It is clear that we have lost these elections,” Vucic said in public remarks even as results were still being tallied.

武契奇曾试图将对手与欧美左翼势力挂钩,声称乔治·索罗斯和西方非政府组织在资助他的批评者。

Vucic has attempted to tie his opponents to European and American leftists, claiming George Soros and western NGOs were funding his critics.

但塞尔维亚反对派虽然普遍被视为比武契奇更亲欧洲,并非明显的左翼,也不具备意识形态上的连贯性。学生运动源于2024年11月开始的大规模抗议,起因是一座火车站的混凝土雨棚坍塌造成15人死亡。批评者指责这场灾难源于政府官员涉嫌腐败,致使承包商工程偷工减料。

But the Serbian opposition, though widely seen as more pro-Europe than Vucic, is not clearly leftist, or ideologically coherent. The student movement emerged from mass protests that began in November 2024 after the collapse of a concrete canopy at a train station that killed 15 people. Critics have blamed the disaster on alleged corruption by government officials that allowed shoddy work by contractors.

今年,学生运动推选政治新人作为议会候选人,其中包括学者、工会官员和艺术家。反对派名单避免在科索沃问题上与武契奇决裂——许多塞尔维亚人至今仍因1999年北约干预导致科索沃脱离而心怀不满——且未提出详细施政纲领。这属于将选举成功转化为对武契奇及国家腐败问题公投的策略之一。

This year, the student movement selected political novices, including academics, trade union officials, and artists as parliamentary candidates. The opposition slate avoided breaking with Vucic on Kosovo, which many Serbs still resent losing following NATO intervention in 1999, and did not adopt a detailed agenda. That was an part of a successful effort to make the election a referendum on Vucic and corruption in the country.

这一结果显示,正如在美国一样,全球选民对腐败的愤怒日益高涨。这使得塞尔维亚大选成为唐纳德·特朗普的又一个不利信号。

The result is sign that voters around the world, as in the United States, are increasingly angry about corruption. That makes the Serbian election another bad sign for Donald Trump.

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