中国人民币兑美元周一升至四年多来新高，延续了自5月以来最长连涨走势，因油价走软和美国国债收益率下行打压美元，且市场关注本周国内外关键政策会议。
China's yuan climbed to a fresh four-year high against the dollar on Monday, extending its longest winning streak since May, as softer oil prices and US Treasury yields weighed on the greenback, ahead of key policy meetings at home and overseas.
投资者在本周晚些时候多场主要央行会议召开前保持谨慎，美联储、日本央行和欧洲央行普遍预计将维持利率不变，同时保持鹰派基调。市场目光也将转向中国五中全会，以寻找新的政策线索。
Investors were cautious ahead of major central bank meetings due later this week, with the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank widely expected to keep rates unchanged while maintaining a hawkish tone. Attention will also turn to China's fifth plenum for fresh policy clues.
在市场开盘前，中国人民银行将中间价定在6.7162元兑1美元，为2023年2月2日以来最强水平。即期人民币允许在固定中间价上下最大2%的区间内波动。
Prior to market opening, the People's Bank of China set the midpoint rate at 6.7162 per dollar, its strongest since February 2, 2023. The spot yuan is allowed to trade a maximum of 2% either side of the fixed midpoint each day.
周一中间价比路透社估值6.6691弱471点（pip）——这是自9月23日以来最大的弱方偏离。
Monday's midpoint was 471 pips weaker than a Reuters estimate of 6.6691 — its largest weak-side deviation since September 23.
交易员和分析师表示，央行今年以来一直在逐步增强每日人民币官方指导汇率，但水平仍弱于市场预期，表明其寻求管控升值节奏。
The central bank has been gradually strengthening its daily yuan official guidance this year, but at levels weaker than market expectations, suggesting it is seeking to manage the pace of appreciation, traders and analysts said.
巴克莱分析师在一份报告中表示：“中国人民银行继续通过弱于市场预期的中间价，抵制更快的升值步伐。”
"The PBOC continues to resist a faster pace of appreciation via weaker than-market-expected fixings," analysts at Barclays said in a note.
“我们认为，中国人民银行的反应函数指向为防止无序贬值提供更强底部支撑，而中间价应继续限制升值步伐，随着贸易加权货币走强。”
"We think the PBOC's reaction function points to a stronger floor against disorderly weakness, while the fixing should continue to constrain the pace of gains as the trade-weighted currency strengthens."
在即期市场，在岸人民币一度触及6.6682元兑1美元高位，为2022年6月以来最强水平，随后于格林威治时间0252报6.6691元。
In the spot market, the onshore yuan hit a high of 6.6682 per dollar at one point, the strongest level since June 2022, before last trading at 6.6691 as of 0252 GMT.
若晚间收盘保持涨幅，在岸即期人民币将录得连续第八个交易日上涨，为5月以来最长连涨纪录。
If it retains the gains at the late-night close, the onshore spot yuan would have booked an eighth straight session of rises, the longest winning streak since May.
其离岸对应品种最新报6.6688元兑1美元，亚洲时段上涨约0.01%。
Its offshore counterpart last fetched 6.6688 per dollar, up about 0.01% in Asian trade.
“我们继续认为，一种渐进但持续的货币升值正在进行，但鉴于起点严重低估，共识预测和远期市场低估了这一进程能走多远，”高盛分析师在一份报告中表示。
"We continue to think that a gradual but sustained currency appreciation is underway but consensus forecasts and forward markets underestimate how far this process can run given the deep undervaluation starting point," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.
“最终，仅靠货币升值无法解决中国的经济挑战……这既需要货币升值，也需要支持国内需求，两种工具击中两个目标，”他们表示，维持人民币12个月目标位在每美元6.40元。
"Ultimately, currency appreciation alone will not address China's economic challenges ... that needs both currency appreciation and support for domestic demand, two instruments to hit two targets," they said, maintaining their 12-month target for the yuan at 6.40 per dollar.