据摩根大通资产管理公司称，中国推动人民币国际化已进入“稳步、缓慢但不间断”的阶段，这可能会进一步支撑该货币的升值。
China’s push to internationalize the yuan has entered a “steady, slow, but nonstop” phase that is likely to support further gains in the currency, according to JPMorgan Asset Management.
据Ruth Carson报道，亚洲固定收益首席投资官胡里奥·卡莱加里本周在一次采访中表示，从实际有效汇率来看，人民币长期可能升值至少10%。该指标衡量一种货币相对于贸易加权同行篮子的强度，并剔除通胀因素。
By Ruth Carson The yuan may appreciate at least 10% over the long run in real effective exchange-rate terms, Julio Callegari, chief investment officer for Asia fixed income, said in an interview this week. That measure tracks a currency’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of peers while adjusting for inflation.
“我们买入，而且我们喜欢它，”他在新加坡表示。他补充说，其吸引力在于该货币的稳定表现，以及这些涨势可能持续的前景。
“We buy, and we like it,” he said in Singapore. The appeal lies in the currency’s steady performance and the prospect that those gains can continue, he added.
离岸人民币今年对美元已上涨近5%，达到2022年以来的最强水平，这得益于产生外汇流入的韧性出口以及北京推动扩大人民币全球使用。尽管通胀疲软、经济疲弱推动中国利率下行，使中美10年期国债收益率差距扩大至创纪录水平，但人民币仍实现了上涨。
The offshore yuan has climbed almost 5% against the dollar this year to its strongest level since 2022, supported by resilient exports that generate foreign-currency inflows and Beijing’s push to expand the renminbi’s global use. The gains have come despite subdued inflation and a weak economy pushing Chinese interest rates lower, widening the gap with US 10-year yields to a record.
卡莱加里指出，尽管中国离岸债券收益率为2%至2.5%，相对于其他利率市场，对某些全球投资者来说可能缺乏吸引力，但人民币稳步升值可以提升总回报，使其高于美元债券，同时提供分散投资和更好的风险调整后表现。
Callegari noted that while Chinese offshore bond yields of 2%-2.5% may look unattractive to some global investors next to other rates markets, steady yuan appreciation can boost total returns above dollar bonds while offering diversification and a better risk-adjusted profile.
该公司偏好人民币计价信贷，因其收益提升伴随货币升值。卡莱加里表示，在中国政府债券方面，该基金只喜欢“一点点”30年期债券。
The firm favors yuan-denominated credit for its yield pickup along with currency appreciation. In Chinese government bonds, the fund likes “only a bit” of 30-year debt, Callegari said.
7月，卡莱加里表示，该公司已削减了对美元的人民币多头头寸，将重点转向收益率更高的货币。当时，他还表示，如果美元回落，且中国的贸易和经常账户保持支持性，他预计人民币年底可能升至每美元6.5元。
In July, Callegari said the firm had trimmed its long yuan positions against the dollar, shifting its focus to higher yielding currencies. At the time, he also said he expected the yuan to climb as high as 6.5 per dollar by year-end if the greenback retreated and China’s trade and current account stayed supportive.
周五，人民币基本持平，报6.66左右。中国主权10年期至30年期债券收益率在1.61%至略高于2%之间。
The yuan was little changed at around 6.66 on Friday. Yields on China’s sovereign 10-year to 30-year bonds range from 1.61% to slightly over 2%.
卡莱加里表示，北京推动人民币国际化的努力很可能只会进一步加深，他引用了提升人民币流动性、增加五年期期货等工具，以及鼓励包括哈萨克斯坦在内的更多国家发行债券等举措。当局还在扩大境内资金流向离岸市场的渠道。
Callegari said Beijing’s yuan internationalization push is likely to only deepen, citing efforts to boost yuan liquidity, add instruments such as five-year futures and encourage more issuance from countries such as Kazakhstan. Authorities are also widening channels for onshore funds to flow into the offshore market.
“我们认为，没有回头路可走，”他说。“他们不会说，‘哦，现在市场困难，我们停止吧。’”
“There’s no way back in our view,” he said. “They will not say, “oh, now the market is difficult. Let’s stop.”