
法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙此前押注大规模警力部署能够避免10月17日震惊全国的暴力事件重演。他赢得了这场赌局,但对于平息法国国内助推大规模抗议且几乎没有减弱迹象的潜在愤怒,他并未取得任何实质性进展。
President Emmanuel Macron bet that a massive police presence could avoid a repeat of the violence that stunned the country on Oct. 17. He won that wager, but isn’t any closer to resolving underlying anger that’s fueled mass protests in France and shows few signs of abating.
尽管人们担心会发生进一步的暴力事件,马克龙也警告称除非由工会组织否则不应采取行动,加之天气恶劣,但连续两个周末仍有数十万人参加了示威活动,参与人数居高不下。
Hundreds of thousands took part in the demonstrations across consecutive weekends, with turnout remaining high despite worries about further violence, Macron’s warning against action unless organized by labor unions, and poor weather.
这种僵局使政府陷入困境:一方面,在债务负担快速增长和借贷成本飙升的压力下,要求增加公共服务支出的呼声日益高涨;另一方面,总统选举即将来临。
The standoff leaves the government in a quandary, with calls growing for more spending on services when it’s under pressure from a fast-growing debt burden and surging borrowing costs, and with presidential elections on the horizon.
学生团体继续呼吁举行进一步抗议,称政府未能采取具体措施解决学校条件、所需资金以及大学名额分配制度等问题。工会已呼吁在11月5日举行大规模罢工和抗议活动。
Student groups are continuing their call for further protests over what they say is the absence of concrete measures to address concerns about school conditions, needed funding, and the system for distributing university slots. Unions have called for a major day of strikes and protests on Nov. 5.
学生工会法国全国学生联合会(UNEF)秘书长马农·莫雷在巴黎的抗议活动中对记者表示:“我们不会放弃任何诉求。包括年轻人的诉求、100亿欧元的资金,以及大学录取中的‘选择性’问题。”
“We’re not giving up on anything,” Manon Moret, secretary general of student union UNEF, told reporters during the protest in Paris. “On the demands of young people, the €10 billion, and the issue of selectivity” in university placements.
但法国并没有足够的预算空间来做出重大的财政回应。尽管法国周五避开了穆迪评级的下调,但在4月大选前,该国正努力缩减巨大的预算赤字,且由于投资者要求更高的溢价来购买其债务,法国的借贷成本已大幅跳升。
But France doesn’t have the budget leeway to mount a dramatic financial response. While it dodged a downgrade by Moody’s Ratings on Friday, it’s struggling to reduce its yawning budget deficit ahead of the April election, and has seen borrowing costs jump as investors demand higher premiums to buy its debt.
一项备受关注的债券风险指标上周升至欧元区债务危机以来的最高水平。法国与作为该地区避险资产的德国之间的10年期国债收益率利差周四达到178个基点,而9月初仅为85个基点。
A closely watched gauge of bond risk rose last week to levels last seen during the euro-area debt crisis. The spread between 10-year yields in France and Germany, the region’s safe asset, reached 178 basis points on Thursday, against 85 basis points at the start of September.
到目前为止,示威者方面没有任何退让的迹象。据法国内政部统计,周末全国约有41万人参加了游行,而其对10月17日的估算为55万人。左翼工会法国劳工总联合会(CGT)给出的估算则高得多,称每天约有80万人参加。
There’s been no let-up on the demonstrators’ side so far. Some 410,000 people took part in the weekend marches across the country, according to the Interior Ministry, compared with its estimate of 550,000 for Oct. 17. The left-wing CGT union put its estimate much higher, at about 800,000 for each day.
政府已表示本周可能会在立场上做出轻微调整。法国总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔尼计划于周一会见学生代表,此前学生们已要求会面数周。周六,财政部长罗兰·莱斯屈尔提出了将法国与通胀挂钩的年度最低工资上调时间提前两个月的想法。
The government has indicated it may shift its position, at least slightly, this week. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is scheduled to meet with student representatives on Monday after they’d been requesting a meeting for weeks. On Saturday, Finance Minister Roland Lescure floated the idea of advancing by a couple of months the annual increase in France’s minimum wage, which is indexed to inflation.
莱斯屈尔在接受法国信息台采访时说:“是的,我们在财政上受到限制,但我们一直在发挥创造力。”他指出,政府已经释放了柴油战略储备,并为高里程驾驶员发放了补贴,以缓解高能源成本带来的压力。
“Yes, we’re constrained financially,” Lescure said in an interview on Franceinfo radio. “But we’ve been creative.”He noted that the government had released strategic stocks of diesel and issued subsidies for high-mileage drivers to ease the pressure of high energy costs.
在上周末的游行以远低于前一周的暴力程度结束后,马克龙政府至少可以考虑如何说服抗议者留在家中。前一周,当局应对不及,示威活动陷入混乱。
Macron’s government can at least consider how to convince protesters to stay home after the past weekend’s marches went ahead with far less violence than the week before, when authorities were caught flat-footed and demonstrations descended into chaos.
一周前,暴徒袭击了全国各地的公共建筑并闯入商店,包括在首都巴黎,他们与警察发生冲突并焚烧汽车。马克龙作为愤怒的主要目标,周四承认存在“规划失误和突发因素”。因此,政府周六部署了约7万名安全官员,其中包括精锐的反恐部队。政府还禁止了多个城市的游行,并强迫巴黎的示威者沿特定路线行进,将其限制在城市东部边缘。
Rioters a week earlier attacked public buildings and broke into stores across the country, including in the capital, fought with police, and set fire to cars. Macron, the target of much of the anger, on Thursday acknowledged “planning failings and elements of surprise.”As a result, the government deployed some 70,000 security officials on Saturday, including elite anti-terror forces. It also banned marches in several cities and forced demonstrators in Paris to take a route that confined them to the eastern edge of the city.

下周六可能又是一次考验。至少有一个抗议网站已经呼吁在10月31日举行新一轮示威,而法国团结工会(Union Syndicale Solidaires)联合负责人穆里耶尔·吉尔伯特表示,她预计工会也会呼吁举行新的抗议活动。
Next Saturday may be another test. At least one protest website has already called for another round of demonstrations on Oct. 31, while Union Syndicale Solidaires co-head Murielle Guilbert said she expected unions to call for new protests as well.
周六在法国各地举行的以左翼为主的抗议活动中,人群不断高呼“马克龙下台!”这一口号在周末于奥尔良举行的极右翼政党“国民联盟”大会上也颇受欢迎。该党主席乔丹·巴尔德拉在周日的演讲中说:“别担心,他很快就会下台。”马克龙的任期将于5月结束,且受任期限制,他无法在2027年再次参选。
During the largely left-wing protests across France on Saturday, groups regularly shouted “Macron, resign!”The slogan also proved popular at the far-right National Rally’s congress in Orleans over the weekend. “Don’t worry,” party president Jordan Bardella said during a speech on Sunday. “He’ll be gone before long.”Macron’s term ends in May, and term limits prevent him from running again in 2027.
《巴黎人报》周六发布的一项民调显示,国民联盟候选人玛丽娜·勒庞在选举中稳居领先地位,极左翼“不屈法国”领导人让-吕克·梅朗雄位居第二,领先于各中间派竞争对手。
A survey published in Le Parisien newspaper on Saturday showed that the National Rally’s candidate, Marine Le Pen, is firmly in the lead for that election, with far-left France Unbowed leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, in second place, ahead of various centrist contenders.
勒庞周日在讲话中对这一优势感到自得。她说:“法国的每个人都同意我们的观点;我们在对法国现状的评估上已经赢得了这场战斗。我们的目标是提供一个真正的替代方案,这并非革命行为,而是民主进程中的自然循环。”周末,欧洲其他地区也因生活成本、住房和教育等一系列问题持续发生抗议。在巴塞罗那市中心,约100人被捕,抗议者焚烧了垃圾桶,破坏了商店,并向警察投掷石块。
Speaking on Sunday, Le Pen basked in that advantage. “Everyone in France agrees with us; the battle is won over the assessment” of how France is doing, she said. “Our goal is to offer a real alternative, which is not a revolutionary act, but a natural cycle in democracy.”Protests continued elsewhere in Europe during the weekend, too, over a range of issues including the cost of living, housing and education. About 100 people were arrested in central Barcelona, where protesters burned containers, vandalized shops, and threw stones at police.
在意大利,数千人在严密的警力下在多个城市游行,据报道发生了零星冲突。阿尔巴尼亚首都地拉那持续受到反对总理的示威活动的冲击。当抗议者投掷石块并纵火时,警方使用了催泪瓦斯、高压水枪和橡胶子弹。
Thousands marched in cities across Italy amid a heavy police presence, with scattered clashes reported. Albania’s capital of Tirana continued to be rocked by demonstrations against its prime minister. Tear gas, water cannons and rubber bullets were used by police as protestors threw stones and set fires.