特朗普总统一直在寻找办法，在下周的中期选举前降低燃油价格。问题在于：他与俄罗斯达成的柴油协议以及其他近期举措，几乎无法弥补全球失去的燃油供应。
President Trump has been grasping for ways to lower fuel prices ahead of next week’s midterm elections. The problem: His diesel deal with Russia and other recent moves will barely make a dent in recovering the world’s lost fuel supplies.
来自乌克兰的无人机和来自伊朗、也门的远程导弹袭击，已使俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯、科威特和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数十座炼油厂瘫痪。据市场情报公司Industrial Info Resources（IIR）统计，全球生产汽油、柴油和其他燃料的炼油能力中，近12%处于离线状态。
Drones buzzing from Ukraine and long-range missile strikes out of Iran and Yemen have crippled dozens of oil refineries in Russia, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. In all, nearly 12% of the world’s refining capacity for making gasoline, diesel and other fuels is offline, according to market intelligence firm Industrial Info Resources, or IIR.
“消灭敌方整个军队并非必要，只需切断其燃料供应即可，”休斯顿莱斯大学贝克公共政策研究所能源专家吉姆·克兰说。“这是关键的战争策略。”据IIR统计，乌克兰已摧毁俄罗斯59%的制燃能力。在袭击发生前，俄罗斯是全球主要柴油供应国之一，约占全球市场的10%，但莫斯科于7月暂停出口以保障国内供应。
“You don’t need to kill the enemy’s entire military, you just need to deprive it of fuel,” said Jim Krane, an energy specialist at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy in Houston. “It’s a key warfighting strategy.”In all, Ukraine has taken out 59% of Russia’s fuel-making capacity, according to IIR. Before the strikes, the country was one of the world’s top suppliers of diesel, accounting for roughly 10% of the global market, but Moscow suspended exports in July to protect its domestic supplies.
特朗普多次指责乌克兰袭击俄罗斯炼油厂导致燃油价格高企，同时淡化中东冲突的影响——该冲突曾导致至关重要的霍尔木兹海峡油轮通行中断，直到最近几周才恢复。
Trump has repeatedly blamed Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries for high fuel prices, while playing down the impact of the conflict in the Middle East that halted oil-tanker traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz until recent weeks.
白宫发言人泰勒·罗杰斯表示，美军护航最近允许通过波斯湾的石油运输量超过冲突前水平。
U.S. military escorts have recently allowed more oil traffic to move through the Persian Gulf than before the conflict, White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said.
“正如总统多次所说，当前的高油价反映了预存问题：多年的民主党政策导致美国炼油厂关闭，加上俄乌战争中炼油厂被毁——这是他继承的一场冲突，”罗杰斯说。
“As the President has said many times, today’s high oil prices reflect pre-existing issues: years of Democrat policies that shuttered U.S. refineries, compounded by the destruction of refineries in the Russia-Ukraine war—a conflict he inherited,” Rogers said.
特朗普暗示，美国将在中期选举后恢复对伊朗的打击。戈尔迪温全球战略公司负责人、前奥巴马政府官员戴维·戈尔迪温表示，作为回应，伊朗可能会升级对该地区油气基础设施的打击。
Trump has suggested that the U.S. will resume attacks on Iran following the midterms. Iran would likely escalate strikes on oil-and-gas infrastructure in the region in return, said David Goldwyn, head of Goldwyn Global Strategies and a former Obama administration official.
“海湾地区的情况看起来不妙，”他说。“根据破坏程度，可能出现产量下降和停运时间延长。”IIR数据显示，沙特阿拉伯的情况十分严峻，由于袭击和物流瓶颈，其炼油能力下降了约25%。炼油厂预计需要数月时间才能修复。
“It doesn’t look good in the Gulf,” he said. “There could be decreased output and longer outages depending on the level of damages.”The situation is dire in Saudi Arabia, which has seen a roughly 25% drop in its oil refining capacity because of attacks and logistical bottlenecks, IIR data show. The refineries are expected to take months to repair.
“管道可以很快修复和恢复，但炼油厂和石化设施庞大而复杂，无法立即修复，”大西洋理事会非常驻高级研究员本·卡希尔说。
“Pipelines can be repaired and restored pretty quickly, but refineries and petrochemical facilities are just big, complex places and they can’t be fixed right away,” said Ben Cahill, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
在中期选举前的几周里，特朗普政府探索了各种方法来减轻国会共和党人的压力，他们面临激烈的竞选，部分原因是高企的燃料成本推高了通胀。
In the weeks ahead of the midterms, the Trump administration has explored ways to ease pressure on congressional Republicans who are facing tight races partly because of the high fuel costs that are driving inflation.
特朗普选择不实施自己的柴油出口禁令后，出人意料地与弗拉基米尔·普京达成协议，将解除制裁，允许俄罗斯出口数十万吨柴油。尽管该协议标志着美国外交政策的重大转变，但能源分析师表示，它对市场的影响可能微乎其微。
After opting not to implement his own diesel-export ban, Trump struck a surprise deal with President Vladimir Putin that would lift sanctions to allow Russia to export hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel. Although the agreement marks a major U.S. foreign policy shift, energy analysts say its impact on the market will likely be minimal.
分析师表示，如果俄罗斯能够出口其承诺的数量，那也只是将燃料从其国内市场转移出去，而不是增加供应，因为其剩余的炼油厂已经在满负荷运转。柴油期货与10月9日特朗普宣布该协议时相比几乎没有变化。
If Russia could export what it promised, it would merely be moving fuel from its domestic market, rather than boosting supplies, because its remaining refineries are already running at full tilt, analysts say. Diesel futures are little changed from Oct. 9, when Trump announced the deal.
据知情人士透露，美国石油行业高管并未主张与俄罗斯达成柴油协议。上个月，他们向政府提出了另一个想法：请中国提高炼油厂产量。
U.S. oil industry executives didn’t advocate for a diesel deal with Russia, according to people close to the industry. They offered a different idea to the administration last month: ask China to boost refinery output.
据分析公司Rystad Energy称，当地炼油厂开工率较战前下降12%。这表明中国拥有额外产能，可能有助于缓解全球柴油短缺，Rystad将该短缺量估计为每天约200万桶。
Refinery runs there are 12% lower than before the war, according to analytics firm Rystad Energy. That suggests China has extra capacity that could ease the world’s diesel shortfall, which Rystad pegs at about 2 million barrels a day.
尽管战争方式已有变化，但瘫痪炼油厂并非美国或其盟友的新型战时策略。二战期间，盟军出动轰炸机轰炸了德国众多炼油厂，使纳粹战机无法起飞，并对阿道夫·希特勒在欧洲的坦克和地面部队造成毁灭性打击。
Even though the modalities of war have changed, crippling oil refineries isn’t a new wartime strategy for the U.S. or its allies. During World War II, Allied forces took to the skies to bomb many of Germany’s oil refineries, grounding Nazi fighter planes and dealing a devastating blow to Adolf Hitler’s tanks and ground troops in Europe.
虽然乌克兰将打击重点放在军事和经济目标上，但国际组织指责2022年入侵西南邻国的俄罗斯，故意针对平民及其能源基础设施。最近，莫斯科袭击了乌克兰的电网，摧毁了28个关键变电站，导致冬季来临前55万户家庭断电。
While Ukraine has focused its strikes on military and economic assets, international bodies have accused Russia, which invaded its southwestern neighbor in 2022, of intentionally targeting civilians and their energy infrastructure. Most recently, Moscow attacked Ukraine’s electrical grid, destroying 28 critical substations and leaving 550,000 households without power ahead of winter.
美国正在探索其他方式，试图缓解燃料价格。其中包括援引冷战时期的《国防生产法》，拨款最高1.5亿美元以扩大炼油产能。不过，鉴于炼油设施的复杂性以及向其供应原油的物流问题，任何投资都可能需要数年才能见效。通常，大型炼油厂的重大升级需要数十亿美元。
The U.S. is exploring other ways to try to ease fuel prices. Among them is invoking the Cold War-era Defense Production Act to spend up to $150 million to expand refining capacity. Any investments, though, could take years to bear fruit given the complexities of refining facilities and the logistics of supplying them with crude. Typically, big upgrades for large refineries cost multiple billions of dollars.
据两国政府知情人士透露，国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥上周在访问印度期间，与外交部长苏布拉马尼安·贾尚卡尔讨论了增加成品油出口的事宜。美国政府官员也向希腊炼油商提出了类似要求。
During a trip to India last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar about boosting refined-product exports, according to people close to the two governments. Administration officials have made similar requests of Greek refiners.
两国都无法提供太多帮助。印度炼油厂开工率接近满负荷，希腊石油出口仅占全球市场的一小部分。
Neither country is in a position to help much. Indian refineries are running near full capacity, and Greek petroleum exports make up a sliver of the global market.
“有人问我特朗普是不是在投‘绝望传球’。我的反应是，他把球扔得远远出了界，还说‘好吧，至少我试过了’，”战略与国际研究中心非常驻高级研究员周文德说。
“Someone asked me if Trump was throwing a Hail Mary pass. My reaction is, he’s throwing the ball way out of bounds and saying, ‘Well, at least I tried,’” said Ed Chow, nonresident senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.