波兰兹罗提暴跌至近三年来最低水平，抛售潮不断加深，其背后是投资者撤离高风险资产，以及政府与央行之间的冲突。
Poland’s zloty slumped to the weakest level in nearly three years in a deepening selloff that’s been fueled by investors retreating from risky assets and a conflict between the government and the central bank.
周一，波兰货币跌势延续，兑欧元一度下滑 0.2% 至 4.4096，今年以来累计下跌 4.3%。兹罗提有望录得自 2020 年以来最差年度表现，跑输大多数新兴市场同行。
The Polish currency extended losses, sliding as much as 0.2% to 4.4096 against the euro on Monday, down 4.3% so far this year. It’s on track for its worst performance since 2020 and lags most emerging-market peers.
兹罗提被视为比大多数货币更脆弱，因为波兰的预算赤字约占国内生产总值的 7%，是欧盟中赤字最大的国家之一。上个月，财政立场引发十年来首次主权信用评级下调。
The zloty is seen as more vulnerable than most because Poland runs a budget deficit of around 7% of gross domestic product, one of the widest shortfalls in the European Union. Last month, the fiscal stance helped trigger the first credit rating downgrade for the sovereign in a decade.
与此同时，围绕央行运作的一场纠纷让投资者感到不安，此外，法国面临的财政挑战正在削弱欧洲资产的市场情绪。波兰 60% 的出口销往欧元区国家。
Meanwhile, a row over the functioning of the central bank has unnerved investors, Furthermore, the fiscal challenges facing France are denting sentiment for European assets. Poland is sells 60% of its exports to counties in the euro zone.
花旗集团波兰分行首席经济学家 Piotr Kalisz 表示：“兹罗提跌幅比其他地区货币略大一些。欧元区局势——特别是法国收益率上升——以及波兰利率前景和体制连续性存在一定程度的不确定性，正在拖累市场情绪。” 波兰最大资产规模贷款机构 PKO Bank Polski SA 的经济学家表示，全球投资者情绪恶化及随之而来的市场紧张，是导致地区货币走弱趋势和兹罗提下跌的原因。不过，他们仍预计兹罗提将在 10 月底收于 4.40 左右兑 1 欧元。
“The zloty is losing a bit more ground than other regional currencies,” Piotr Kalisz, chief economist at the Polish unit of Citigroup Inc. “The situation in the euro zone — specifically rising yields in France — and a degree of uncertainty regarding rates as well as institutional continuity in Poland are weighing on sentiment.”Economists at PKO Bank Polski SA, Poland’s largest lender by assets, said deteriorating global investor sentiment and accompanying market jitters were behind the regional weakening trend and the zloty’s decline. They nevertheless expect the zloty to end October at around 4.40 per euro.
本月迄今，兹罗提兑欧元下跌 0.9%，匈牙利福林下跌 0.2%，罗马尼亚列伊下滑 1.5%。捷克克朗兑欧元基本持平。
So far this month, the zloty has lost 0.9% against the euro, compared with a 0.2% decline by the Hungarian forint and 1.5% slide by the Romanian leu. The Czech koruna has traded little changed against the single currency.
货币政策委员会成员马尔钦·扎热茨基（Marcin Zarzecki）本月告诉彭博社，如果兹罗提进一步走弱，跌破每欧元4.5兹罗提，可能会促使波兰决策者加息。另一位委员普热梅斯瓦夫·利特维纽克（Przemyslaw Litwiniuk）则单独表示，尽管目前呈现走弱趋势，但兹罗提依然“强劲”。这些不一致的言论加剧了外界对波兰利率前景的不确定性，而此时央行行长亚当·格拉平斯基（Adam Glapinski）正面临议会投票，该投票可能导致他在特别法庭受审并面临停职。
Further weakening past 4.5 per euro could help tip Polish policymakers to raise interest rates, Monetary Policy Council member Marcin Zarzecki told Bloomberg this month. Separately, fellow panelist Przemyslaw Litwiniuk said that despite the current trend, the zloty remains “strong.”These varying comments elevate uncertainty over the outlook for Polish rates at a time that central bank Governor Adam Glapinski faces a parliamentary vote which could see him put on trial in front of a special tribunal and potentially suspended.
格拉平斯基否认了他在上一届议会任期内（当时其盟友执政）将货币政策政治化的指控。关于央行管理委员会任命的另一项争议，进一步加剧了波兰最后贷款人面临的风险。
Glapinski denies allegations that he politicized monetary policy during the previous parliamentary term, when his allies were in power. A separate issue regarding appointments to the central bank’s management board further inflames the risks facing Poland’s lender of last resort.