Further weakening of the zloty is among the factors that could tip Polish policymakers to raise interest rates, a Monetary Policy Council member said.

While there is only a scant chance of such a move next month, Marcin Zarzecki said in an interview, the central bank is under growing pressure to tighten policy for the first time since 2022.

“I don’t expect a rate hike in November, but I don’t rule one out,” he told Bloomberg News, adding that his views match those of Governor Adam Glapinski.

Zarzecki’s focus signals that policymakers may not be as comfortable with the Polish currency as earlier comments suggested. The zloty has weakened 3.6% against the euro in 2026, on track for its worst year since the Covid pandemic in 2020.

The central bank has kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.75% since March as the surging oil prices sparked by the war in Iran put an end to the easing cycle. Now, policymakers need to ensure that the spike in fuel prices doesn’t create second-round effects throughout the $1 trillion economy.

Headline inflation accelerated to 4.1% in September. It could soon again exceed 4% after an expected temporary easing due to a government decision to cap fuel prices, Zarzecki said.

The policymaker said arguments in favor of a rate rise also include core inflation rising above 3.5% and remaining above that level for two straight months, wage growth accelerating to more than 7% and the zloty tumbling above 4.5 against the euro — about 3% weaker than current levels.

There are also political factors, such as the removal of fuel price caps or higher household energy tariffs for 2027, he said.

“If two of these conditions are met, we should seriously consider a one-time rate hike of 25 basis points,” Zarzecki said. “If three conditions are in place, it would mean that we are receiving data that could potentially support a series of rate hikes or a larger-scale single rate increase.”Core inflation eased to 3.1% last month from 3.3% in August, wage growth slowed to 5.6% in August from 6.8% a month earlier, while the zloty traded 4.37 against the euro on Monday. The government has said that it wants to keep the price cap in place at least until the end of the year.

Fellow panelist Przemyslaw Litwiniuk said last week that the zloty remains “strong” and that its weakening helps exporters. Meanwhile, Glapinski said a month ago that purchases of gold by the country’s central bank were helping stabilize the local currency and boost policy credibility.

Zarzecki also said that an expected parliamentary vote on whether to put Glapinski on trial for alleged political meddling under the previous administration added to risks for Poland. The governor rejected all the accusations and said the inquiry was “baseless.”The central bank could ask the European Central Bank for an opinion on the matter, and eventually the case could be considered by the European Union’s top court, according to Zarzecki.

“Until these issues are resolved, any decision by the Council may be subject to a very real risk of having its validity challenged,” he said. “That risk in itself undermines the credibility of monetary policy.”Zarzecki was appointed to the rate-setting panel by President Karol Nawrocki, who has often sided with Glapinski and is a political opponent of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his government.