据Agnieszka Barteczko和Barbara Sladkowska报道，由于政府采取措施抑制加油站燃油价格，波兰央行有望连续第七个月维持利率不变，这为政策制定者评估通胀走势赢得了更多时间。
Poland’s central bank is set to keep interest rates on hold for a seventh straight month as the government’s move to reduce fuel prices at the pump buys policymakers more time to assess inflation path.
据彭博社调查的34位经济学家预测，货币政策委员会将于周三将基准利率维持在3.75%的水平。预计该委员会将于华沙时间下午4点前公布决定，而行长Adam Glapinski则定于周四下午3点召开月度新闻发布会。
The Monetary Policy Council will hold its benchmark at 3.75% on Wednesday, according to all 34 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The panel is expected to announce its decision before 4 p.m. in Warsaw, while Governor Adam Glapinski is scheduled to hold his monthly news conference at 3 p.m. on Thursday.
此前，波兰政府重新实施了多项措施以缓解民众面临的燃油价格飙升压力。据法国农业信贷银行波兰分行的经济学家预测，此举有望使10月份的通胀率从9月份创下的15个月高点4%回落至3.3%。
The MPC’s decision comes after the government revived measures to shield customers from spiking fuel prices. The move is set to slow inflation to 3.3% in October from a 15-month peak of 4% set in September, according to economists at Credit Agricole Bank Polska SA.
该行首席经济学家Jakub Borowski指出：“尽管9月份通胀率大幅上升，但央行行长仍会适度控制市场对加息的预期。”
“Despite the sharp rise in inflation in September, the governor will temper market expectations regarding interest rate hikes,” the lender’s chief economist Jakub Borowski said.
不过，他同时预计央行仍会在11月份加息，以稳定通胀预期并防范燃油成本上涨带来的后续影响。目前，由10名成员组成的货币政策委员会设定的中期通胀目标为2.5%，允许上下1个百分点的波动范围。
Nevertheless, he expects a rate hike in November to anchor inflation expectations and limit second-round risks of high fuel costs. The 10-member MPC targets price growth over the medium-term at 2.5%, with a tolerance band of plus/minus one percentage point.
根据远期利率协议合约显示，随着政府自上周六起实施燃油价格管控，交易员们对波兰加息的预期已有所降温。不过，Wood Finance Ltd.的首席经济学家Raffaella Tenconi指出，11月或12月波兰仍有可能实施0.25个百分点的紧缩措施。
Traders have pared wagers on Polish rate hikes as the government introduced caps on fuel prices starting last Saturday, according to forward-rate agreement contracts. Still, a quarter point in monetary tightening remains likely in either November or December, said Wood Finance Ltd.’s chief economist Raffaella Tenconi.
此前Glapinski曾表示利率可能维持不变至2027年中期，但在新燃油管控措施出台前几天的9月30日，他的言论显得更为鹰派。当时他表示，央行将“以负责任且果断的方式行动，确保通胀水平维持在低位”。
Glapinski — who last month said that rates could stay on hold until mid-2027 — sounded more hawkish in comments made on Sept. 30, just days before the new fuel measures were announced. The central bank “will act responsibly and decisively to keep inflation low,” the governor said.