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如果通胀风险加剧,波兰央行行长格拉平斯基准备加息Poland’s Glapinski Ready to Raise Rates If Inflation Risks Mount

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波兰国家银行行长亚当·格拉平斯基 摄影师:Piotr Malecki/BloombergNarodowy Bank Polski Governor Adam Glapinski Photographer: Piotr Malecki/Bloomberg

据 Agnieszka Barteczko 报道,波兰央行行长表示,如果通胀风险升级,波兰准备在四年内首次提高利率。

Poland is ready to increase interest rates for the first time in four years if inflation risks escalate, according to the central bank governor.

亚当·格拉平斯基(Adam Glapinski)周四表示,目前没有迹象表明燃油价格的飙升正在蔓延至更广泛的经济领域,这降低了11月收紧货币政策的可能性。衍生品数据显示,在这些言论发表后,交易员减少了对加息的押注。

Adam Glapinski said on Thursday that there’s been no indication so far that the spike in fuel prices is spreading into the wider economy, which reduced the probability of tightening taking place in November. Derivatives showed traders paring bets on hikes in the wake of the comments.

由格拉平斯基领导的货币政策委员会(MPC)周三将基准利率维持在3.75%不变。这一普遍预期的决定是在政府对加油站燃油价格设定上限之后作出的,此举预计将使本月的通货膨胀率从9月份15个月高点的4%有所下降。

The Monetary Policy Council, headed by Glapinski, kept its benchmark unchanged at 3.75% on Wednesday. The widely expected decision came after the government capped fuel prices at the pump, which is set to reduce inflation this month from a 15-month high of 4% in September.

格拉平斯基在华沙举行的月度新闻发布会上表示:“如果通胀风险继续上升,货币政策委员会已准备好采取行动。”当被问及该委员会是否最早可能在下个月加息时,这位行长回答说:“是的,尽管我预计不会这样。”

“If inflation risks continue to mount, the MPC is ready to act,” Glapinski told his monthly news conference in Warsaw. Asked if the panel could hike rates as soon as next month, the governor said: “Yes, even though I don’t foresee this.”

格拉平斯基表示,他看到所有货币政策委员会成员都有“坚定的决心”,“如果通胀表现出蔓延至其他领域并具有持久性质的趋势,就不会错过时机”。与此同时,行长明确表示,目前没有第二轮价格效应的迹象,也没有迫切的理由“担心”通胀加速。话虽如此,格拉平斯基指出,围绕价格压力的全球不确定性意味着华沙的决策者必须保持警惕。

Glapinski said he sees a “strong determination” among all MPC panelists “not to miss the timing, should inflation show a tendency to spread to other sectors and take on a persistent nature.”At the same time, the governor made clear that for now there are no signs of second-round price effects and no imminent reasons to “worry” about inflation accelerating. Having said that, Glapinski noted that global uncertainty surrounding price pressures meant that policymakers in Warsaw had to remain vigilant.

由拉法尔·贝内茨基(Rafal Benecki)领导的荷兰国际集团(ING Bank Slaski SA)经济学家表示,格拉平斯基的基调与他们对明年第一季度进行一到两次25个基点加息的预测相一致。他们表示:“加息的可能性已经增加,但货币政策委员会认为没有理由仓促行事。”

ING Bank Slaski SA economists, led by Rafal Benecki, said Glapinski’s tone is consistent with their forecast for one or two quarter-point rate hikes in the first quarter of next year. “The probability of a hike has increased, but the MPC sees no reason for haste,” they said.

周四,兹罗提兑欧元汇率变动不大,而当地货币计价的两年期国债收益率下降2个基点至4.74%。

The zloty was little changed against the euro on Thursday, while the yields on two-year local-currency government bonds declined 2 basis points to 4.74%.