高盛表示，美元兑巴西雷亚尔汇率可能上涨约 12%，升至接近 5.60 雷亚尔，这在卢拉连任后给投资者带来新一轮冲击。
Goldman Sachs says the dollar could climb roughly 12% against Brazil's real, to near R$5.60, in a fresh jolt for investors after Lula's re-election.
高盛分析师周一预测，美元兑巴西雷亚尔汇率可能上涨约 12%，升向 5.60 雷亚尔，这是自路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦以微弱优势赢得连任以来，最看跌巴西货币的预测之一。
Goldman Sachs forecast on Monday that the US dollar could rise about 12% against Brazil's real, climbing toward R$5.60, in one of the most bearish currency calls issued since Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's narrow re-election victory.
该行分析师称，市场正在为更长时间的财政不确定性定价，因为卢拉政府正在与敌对的国会谈判，这增加了计划中的支出增加扩大预算赤字并进一步削弱货币的风险。这一预测加剧了巴西资产价格已显现的压力。
The bank's analysts said markets are pricing in a longer period of fiscal uncertainty as Lula's government negotiates with a hostile Congress, raising the risk that planned spending increases widen the budget deficit and weaken the currency further. The call adds to pressure already visible in Brazilian asset prices.
雷亚尔走弱将推高持有美元债务的巴西公司成本，以及面临更贵进口商品的消费者成本，尽管这可能使该国出口更具竞争力。高盛表示，将在卢拉经济团队更多细节和首批政策举措出台后重新评估该预测。
A weaker real would raise costs for Brazilian companies holding dollar debt and for consumers facing pricier imports, even as it could make the country's exports more competitive. Goldman said it would revisit the forecast once more details of Lula's economic team and first policy moves emerge.