CVC Marathon首席执行官布鲁斯·理查兹警告称，大量风险最高的借款人除了对不断累积的债务违约之外几乎没有其他选择，因为再融资正变得越来越昂贵。
A big swath of the riskiest borrowers have few options other than defaulting on their piling debt as it’s getting increasingly expensive to refinance, CVC Marathon Chief Executive Officer Bruce Richards warned.
理查兹周一在彭博电视上表示，评级机构对CCC级借款人未来三到五年的违约概率已升至50%-60%，原因是垃圾级债务利率飙升，信贷利差已扩大至预示困境的水平。
Default probabilities for CCC rated borrowers assigned by rating agencies have grown to 50%-60% in the next three to five years, as rates on junk-rated debt have surged and credit spreads have widened to levels signaling distress, Richards said on Bloomberg TV Monday.
“随着市场对资信较差的公司收紧了金融环境，明年你将看到违约率大幅跃升，”他说。“除了进行大量重组之外别无出路，对许多这类公司来说，这将是一段痛苦的时期。”高收益市场最底层的债券正迅速下滑，投资者越来越担心最脆弱的公司如何承受借贷成本上升和高通胀，同时还要应对人工智能的影响和动荡的地缘政治背景。上周，CCC级债券的收益率飙升至六年多来的最高水平。
“You’re going to see a big step function higher in default rates in the coming year as the markets have tightened financial conditions for companies that are less creditworthy,” he said. “There is no way out, other than for a lot of these restructurings, and it’s going to be a painful period for a lot of these companies.”The bottom ranks of the high-yield market are seeing a rapid downturn as investor concerns are intensifying about how the most vulnerable companies can withstand rising borrowing costs and elevated inflation while grappling with the impact of artificial intelligence and a volatile geopolitical backdrop. Yields on CCC rated debt last week surged to the highest level in more than six years.
理查兹表示，相比之下，评级最高的垃圾债券“表现还不错”，这推动CCC级与BB级债券收益率之间的差距进一步扩大。
In contrast, the highest-rated junk debt is “doing just fine,” according to Richards, pushing the gap between CCC and BB rated yields wider.
理查兹说，在经济扩张时期，评级最高和最低的垃圾债券之间的差距从未如此之大，目前水平与2008年金融危机和新冠疫情最初几个月时达到的水平相似。
Richards said the difference between the top and bottom-rated junk debt has never been as big during periods that the economy has been expanding, and is similar to levels reached during the 2008 financial crisis and the early months of the Covid pandemic.
“在GDP增长3%、企业盈利增长25%到30%的时候，我从未见过BB级和CCC级之间的差距如此之大，”他说。
“I’ve never seen the delta between BBs and CCCs be this wide when you have a 3% GDP and you have corporate earnings which are growing 25% to 30%,” he said.
摩根大通周一的一份研究报告显示，高收益债券的痛苦对某些行业尤为严重，电信、有线电视、运输和媒体行业10月份的总回报率至少下降了100个基点。
The pain in high yield has been especially acute for certain sectors, with telecom, cable, transports, and media seeing total returns falling by at least 100 basis points in October, according to a research note Monday from JPMorgan Chase & Co.
理查兹表示，银团贷款和私人信贷市场的投资者同样对风险保持警惕，这意味着借款人无处求助。
Richards said that investors in syndicated loans and private credit markets are also wary of the risk, meaning borrowers have nowhere to turn.
“无论是高收益指数、广泛银团贷款还是直接贷款，你涂的都是同一面墙，用的都是同一把刷子，”他说。
“Whether it’s the high yield index or broadly syndicated loans or direct lending, it’s all the same wall that you’re painting or the same brush that you’re using,” he said.