根据CNBC的一项调查，日本央行预计将在周五结束的为期两天的会议上维持政策利率在1.25%不变，但在未来几个月加息的可能性依然很大。所有16位受访者均预期日本央行将按兵不动，因为该行上个月将利率上调至31年来的最高水平。所有受访者均表示，预期日本央行将为明年12月或1月加息铺平道路，因为国内通胀和工资持续上涨。
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.25% at the end of its two-day meeting on Friday, according to a CNBC survey, with the possibility of a hike very much alive in the coming months. All 16 respondents expect the BOJ to stand pat, given the bank raised rates last month to their highest level in 31 years. All respondents said they expect the BOJ to set the stage for a rate hike in December or January next year, as domestic inflation and wages continue to rise.
隆巴德·奥迪亚（Lombard Odier）高级宏观策略师Homin Lee表示，宏观经济因素支持日本央行进一步收紧政策。但他补充道：“鉴于国内债券市场的脆弱性，政策委员会内部可能没有足够的共识支持连续加息。”
Macroeconomic factors support the BOJ's additional policy tightening, said Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier. "But there may not be sufficient consensus in the policy board for successive rate hikes given the fragility in the domestic bond market," he added.
花旗研究（Citi Research）经济学家中村宗介表示，他看不到通胀加速到足以证明连续加息合理的明确迹象。
Sosuke Nakamura, an economist at Citi Research, said he sees no clear signs of inflation accelerating to a degree that would justify consecutive rate hikes.
根据最新政府数据，日本9月份除生鲜食品外的核心通胀率同比上升2.1%，达到今年以来最高水平，日元疲软推高进口成本，高企的能源成本传导至更高价格，即使政府补贴吸收了消费者不断上涨的能源成本。
Japan's core inflation, excluding fresh foods, for September rose 2.1% from a year earlier, reaching its highest this year as a weak yen raises import costs and elevated energy costs feed through to higher prices, even as government subsidies absorb rising costs of energy for consumers.
根据最新政府数据，日本8月份经通胀调整后的实际工资连续第八个月上涨，同比增长1.5%，预示着潜在的工资增长驱动型通胀。据报道，财务大臣加藤胜信上周对议员表示，日本“正处于由工资上涨驱动的持续通胀时期的临界点”，同时承认较高的进口成本也在推高物价。
Japan's inflation-adjusted wages rose for the eighth month in a row in August, climbing 1.5% from a year earlier, according to the most recent government data, signaling potential wage-growth-driven inflation as well. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reportedly told lawmakers last week that Japan was "on the cusp of shifting to a period of sustained inflation driven by rising wages," while acknowledging that higher import costs were also pushing up prices.
法国巴黎资产管理公司高级固定收益策略师木村龙太郎表示，他正在等待观察日本央行本周是否会在货币政策声明中将关于通胀的措辞从“核心CPI通胀一直在接近2%”改为“已达到2%”。至于日元，有九位受访者预计未来一个月日元兑美元将在157至158区间交易。受访者对三个月日元目标的展望较为分散，区间在150至160之间。
Ryutaro Kimura, senior fixed income strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, said he was waiting to see if the BOJ changes its phrasing about inflation in the monetary policy statement this week from "underlying CPI inflation has been approaching 2 percent" to it "has reached 2 percent." As for the yen, nine respondents expect it to trade between 157 and 158 against the greenback over the next one month. Respondents' outlook for the three-month yen target was more scattered, ranging from 150 to 160.
“日本央行货币政策正常化、国内收益率上升以及机构资金流向变化，应当会逐步缩小利差并将资金拉回日本，”State Street Investment Management高级固定收益策略师Masahiko Loo表示。但他补充道：“美国收益率居高不下，应当会阻止日元单边上涨。” 受避险需求推动，在AI股票抛售之际，日元兑美元走强，日本国债收益率上周下跌——这与本月早些时候形成反差，当时首相高市早苗的支出计划和全球债券抛售给这些资产带来压力。
"BOJ normalization, higher domestic yields and shifting institutional flows should gradually narrow the rate differential and pull capital back toward Japan," said Masahiko Loo, senior fixed income strategist at State Street Investment Management. But he added, "Elevated U.S. yields should prevent a straight-line yen rally." The yen strengthened against the dollar, and Japanese government bond yields fell last week due to safe-haven demand amid a sell-off in AI stocks — a reversal from earlier in the month, when Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's spending plans and a global bond sell-off pressured those assets.
九位受访者预计，基准10年期日本国债收益率将在年底升至3%至3.1%之间，高于目前的2.809%。七位受访者预计，30年期日本国债收益率将从周二的3.829%升至4%至4.1%。 这一预测是在分析师预期日本央行将在10月预期的暂停后恢复收紧政策的背景下作出的。Credit Agricole首席日本经济学家Takuji Aida表示，下一次加息很可能发生在1月，届时日本央行将发布季度展望报告，评估经济活动和物价。
Nine respondents said they expect the yield on the benchmark 10-year JGBs to be between 3% and 3.1% by the end of the year, up from the current 2.809%. Seven respondents said they expect the yield on the 30-year JGB to rise to 4% to 4.1% from 3.829% as of Tuesday. That forecast comes as analysts expect the BOJ will resume tightening after an anticipated pause in October. Takuji Aida, chief Japan economist at Credit Agricole, said the next rate hike is likely to happen in January, when the BOJ is scheduled to release its quarterly outlook report that assesses economic activity and prices.
十三位受访者预计，终端利率——即日本央行预计停止收紧周期时的水平——将在2027年年中左右达到1.75%至2%。 SOMPO Institute Plus高级经济学家Masato Koike表示，宏观经济数据显示，政策利率更接近2%的中性水平，即日本央行的通胀目标。但他表示：“考虑到日本经济的状况以及避免对增长造成过度下行压力的必要性，我预计日本央行将在1.75%左右停止加息。”
Thirteen respondents said they expect a terminal rate, or the level at which the BOJ is expected to stop its tightening cycle, of 1.75% to 2% by around mid-2027. Macroeconomic data shows the policy rate is closer to the neutral level of 2%, the BOJ's inflation target, said Masato Koike, senior economist at SOMPO Institute Plus. But "given the state of the Japanese economy and the need to avoid excessive downward pressure on growth, I expect the BOJ to stop raising rates at around 1.75%," Koike said.
CNBC调查于10月14日至26日在16位经济学家和分析师中进行。
The CNBC survey was conducted from Oct. 14 to 26 among 16 economists and analysts.