As the US heads toward November's midterms, Donald Trump and Republicans are issuing increasingly dire warnings of voter fraud, while Democrats and voting-rights activists mobilize against what they call a campaign of intimidation designed to scare people away from the ballot box.

Trump has for years claimed – without evidence – that hundreds of thousands of non-Americans vote in Democrat-controlled states, skewing results. Now he and his surrogates have launched a series of high-profile actions aimed at proving their case, including sending armed federal agents door-to-door in several states to ask people about their immigration status and whether they have previously voted, CBS reported.

In Texas, US Attorney Aaron Reitz, who as a lawyer represented Republicans trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election, issued an aggressive warning when early voting began last week. "If you violate federal election law I will hunt you down and prosecute you," he said on X. "American elections are for Americans only." On Monday, October 26, Trump offered a hefty cash reward for anyone with information about wrongdoing.

"Anybody reporting Voter Fraud in the past Elections, or the upcoming 2026 Midterm Election, will be paid $1,000,000 upon the arrest and conviction of those that created the Fraud!" Trump wrote on Truth Social. The president gave no details of how the reward would be funded or administered.

Arrests Last week in California – where Trump is deeply unpopular, and where he insists fraud is rampant – federal officials invited right-wing media outlets to watch the arrests of some of the 28 residents they have charged with crimes including fraudulently registering to vote in cases that date back as far as 2002. A press conference displayed mug shots as First Assistant US Attorney Bill Essayli intoned the arrests "prove what we have been saying."

"California is mailing ballots to noncitizens, and they are refusing to comply with federal law, which makes it a crime for noncitizens to vote. The voting rights of American citizens must be protected."

Opponents in the state were unimpressed. The arrests are "voter intimidation and a blatant attempt to undermine trust in our midterm elections," said Los Angeles County Supervisor Janice Hahn. They are "being used to paint a picture of widespread voter fraud when we know that is not the case." The administration originally claimed there were 190,000 "illegal" voters on California's rolls, a number it has since revised down to around 20,000. Studies have repeatedly found that fraud occurs at very low levels, particularly when it comes to non-citizens voting.

The New York Times interrogated a database maintained by conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation, finding just 100 cases of noncitizens voting from 1982 to 2025. "That is about 0.000008 percent of more than 1.3 billion votes cast in presidential elections during that time," the paper said.

Rick Hasen, a law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, said the small number of arrests and prosecutions for fraud reflects its paucity. "If (the Department of Justice) could prove many more cases, we would have heard about it," he wrote in a blog post. "They've been on an aggressive hunt nationally for such fraud. It's not surprising they've found little because it is a small problem."

Vote Safe The stance taken by the federal government has set alarm bells ringing among immigrants, who fear they might be targeted on the way to the polling station. Voting rights activists are hitting back at what they say is an effort to suppress turnout with initiatives like "Vote Safe." The campaign puts clergy, veterans, teachers and other volunteers at voting stations where they will explain voting rights, try to de-escalate confrontations and document intimidation or other misconduct.

"The fear is the point, and we must do something about it," said Mary Corcoran, executive director of the Save America Movement. "Left unanswered, fear does the work of keeping people home without a single agent setting foot at a polling place."