托马斯·博蒙特、阿默尔·马德哈尼 华盛顿报道 — 努尔·杜博表示，他经常投票给共和党候选人，因为他认为这些候选人的经济观点与自己一致 — 尽管他从来不是唐纳德·特朗普的粉丝，甚至对这位总统某些将移民非人化的言论感到反感。
THOMAS BEAUMONT, AAMER MADHANI WASHINGTON — Noor Dubow says he regularly votes for Republican candidates who he believes align with his economic views — even though he’s never been a fan of Donald Trump , finding himself repelled by some of the president’s dehumanizing rhetoric toward immigrants.
但今年，当杜博在中期选举中投下提前票时，他发现自己更倾向于民主党人，因为他对特朗普决定与伊朗开战感到沮丧。
But this year, when Dubow cast his early ballot in the midterm election , he found himself tipping more toward Democrats because of his frustration with Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran.
“国会里的共和党人在哪里？”现年44岁的杜博问道，他在俄亥俄州哥伦布市一家卡车物流公司担任调度员，能一览无余地看到飙升的燃油价格正如何冲击经济。“为什么共和党人不追究特朗普的责任？”这场伊朗战争，特朗普常将其描述为“小小的绕道”，已成为总统的一个非必要负债，而他曾承诺让美国避免卷入外国战争。共和党策略师私下承认，随着汽油价格上涨推高几乎所有行业的成本，且新的敌对行动不断出现，这场战争严重损害了该党在特朗普总统任期最后两年保持国会控制权的努力。
“Where are the Republicans in Congress?” asked Dubow, 44, a dispatcher at a trucking logistics firm in Columbus, Ohio, where he has a bird’s eye view of the disruption that surging fuel prices are having on the economy. “Why aren’t the Republicans holding Trump accountable?”The Iran war, which Trump often describes as a “little detour,” has emerged as an unforced liability for the president, who once promised to keep the U.S. out of foreign wars. Republican strategists privately acknowledge that the war is severely damaging the party’s push to retain control of Congress for the final two years of Trump’s presidency as rising gasoline prices drive up costs across nearly every sector and new hostilities emerge.
高昂的能源成本，以及选民对这场持续近八个月的战争感到疲惫 — 特朗普在开战之初曾预测战争只会持续几周 — 正沉重地压在共和党候选人身上。
High energy costs and voter fatigue over the nearly eight-month-old war — one that Trump predicted at the onset would last a matter of weeks — are weighing heavily on Republican candidates.
无论11月3日选举结果如何，美联社-诺克民调中心上周发布的一项民调显示，两大主要政党的选民都希望下届国会专注于让生活更负担得起，并结束这场对全球经济产生巨大影响的伊朗战争。
Regardless of the outcome of the Nov. 3 elections, an AP-NORC poll published last week found that voters from both major political parties want the next Congress to focus on making life more affordable and end the war in Iran that’s had enormous ramifications for the global economy.
局势对共和党向选民阐述主张的处境只会更加复杂。冲突已蔓延，伊朗支持的胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯的石油基础设施和机场发动了一系列袭击。沙特领导的联盟则以对也门胡塞武装控制区的致命袭击作为回应。
The situation has only become more complicated for Republicans making their case to voters. The conflict has spread, with Iran-backed Houthi rebels carrying out a series of attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure and airports. A Saudi-led coalition has responded with its own deadly attacks on Houthi-held territory in Yemen.
周末，国务院表示，在收到情报称伊朗已加强针对该地区及其他地方美国人员的袭击行动后，正在削减美国驻中东四个大使馆的人员编制。
Over the weekend, the State Department said it was reducing staffing at four U.S. embassies in the Middle East after receiving intelligence that Iran has stepped up efforts to target American personnel in the region and elsewhere.
美国柴油价格继续徘徊在历史高位附近，给爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、俄亥俄州和得克萨斯州等通常偏向保守的州份的共和党人制造了麻烦，他们发现自己在与民主党人的竞争性选战中陷入僵局。
Diesel prices continue to hover near all-time highs in the U.S., creating trouble for Republicans in typically conservative states such as Iowa, Kansas , Ohio and Texas who find themselves knotted in competitive races with Democrats.
然而，特朗普在动员支持者、试图保住共和党对国会两院控制权的过程中，始终淡化冲突的经济影响。
Yet, Trump has consistently downplayed the conflict’s economic impact as he rallies his supporters to try to keep the GOP’s grip on both chambers of Congress.
特朗普反复坚称战争即将结束，却又威胁称选举一过，很可能会发动新一轮高强度轰炸——往往是在同一场竞选演讲或同一次与记者的交锋中前后表态。他还辩称，油价上涨是为削弱伊朗而必须付出的暂时不便。
Trump repeatedly insists that the war’s end is near, only to threaten that a new, intensive round of bombing could very well be in the offing once the election passes — often within the same campaign speech or a single exchange with reporters. He also argues that elevated gas prices are a temporary inconvenience worth paying to defang Iran.
特朗普在周末于密歇根州举行的集会上表示，他对发动战争毫无悔意，甚至辩称其经济影响比他预期的要轻微。
Trump at a weekend rally in Michigan said that he has no regrets about launching the war and even argued that its economic impact has been less severe than he had expected.
“有人问，‘如果让你重来一次……’”特朗普对友好的听众说。“我说，‘你开玩笑吧？’我原以为汽油价格会翻倍或翻三倍。为从疯子手中夺走核武器，这点代价微不足道。”莱哈伊大学民意观察站主任克里斯托弗·博里克表示，总统在伊朗问题上的矛盾表态，让共和党候选人陷入了困难、甚至无法维持的境地。
“Somebody said, ‘If you had it to do again...’”Trump told the friendly audience. “I said, ‘Are you kidding?’ I thought gas would be double or triple. And it’s a small price to pay for taking a nuclear weapon away from maniacs.”The president’s mixed message on Iran has left Republican candidates in a difficult, if not untenable, position, said Christopher Borick, director of the Lehigh University Opinion Observatory.
“特朗普在战争问题上的信息传递正引起选民中不断缩小的一部分人的共鸣，”博里克说。“对于对冲突走向感到失望的选民来说，总统的说法几乎没有什么能改变他们负面的看法。”只有极少数当选共和党人因伊朗冲突而与特朗普决裂。特朗普本人则坚称，中期选举不会影响他处理冲突的方式。但一些党内策略师几个月来一直在敲响警钟。
“Trump’s messaging on the war is resonating with a shrinking portion of the electorate,” Borick said. “For voters disappointed with the direction of the conflict, there’s little by way of the president’s claims that would change their negative outlook.”Only a few elected Republicans have parted ways with Trump over the Iran conflict. Trump, for his part, has insisted that the midterm elections would have no bearing on how he approached the conflict. But some party strategists have been sounding the alarm for months.
初夏时节，五名参与关键竞选或为竞选领导层提供建议的共和党策略师告诉美联社，他们已开始看到预警信号，表明如果冲突不能很快平息，战争可能会损害他们的候选人。
Early in the summer, five Republican strategists involved in key races or advising campaign leadership told The Associated Press that they had begun seeing warning signs that the war could hurt their candidates if the conflict did not wind down soon.
6月，在特朗普与德黑兰达成临时停火协议后，特朗普和白宫官员显得更有信心。但该协议在几周内便告破裂。
In June, after Trump forged an interim ceasefire agreement with Tehran, Trump and White House officials appeared more confident. But the deal unraveled within weeks.
共和党策略师称，此时，一些关键竞选地区的竞选官员在内部谈话中变得更为强硬，表示特朗普2024年轻松赢下的众议院选区看起来正变得具有竞争力。这些策略师未获授权公开评论内部党内数据，因此要求匿名。
At that point, campaign officials in some battleground races became more forceful during internal conversations that House districts Trump won easily in 2024 looked like they were becoming competitive, said the Republican strategists, who were not authorized to comment publicly on the internal party data and spoke on the condition of anonymity.
油价在5月达到顶峰，6月下跌，9月再次飙升，当时特朗普威胁升级冲突，随后又退让并暗示达成协议可能指日可待。全国平均油价自6月中以来一直徘徊在每加仑4美元以上。
Oil prices peaked in May, fell in June and surged again in September as Trump threatened to escalate the conflict before backing off and suggesting a deal could be around the corner. The national average has hovered above $4 per gallon since the middle of June.
随着劳动节假期结束，策略师称内部民调显示，选民更频繁地将战争与更高的食品杂货价格和出行成本联系在一起。
As the Labor Day holiday passed, strategists said internal polls showed voters were more frequently tying the war to higher grocery prices and travel costs.
特朗普驳斥了认为战争正在给美国人带来负担能力危机的批评者，称他们在推销民主党编造的“骗局”或“诈骗”。但策略师称，内部竞选民调表明，特朗普的论点并未引起美国选民共鸣。
Trump has dismissed critics who argue that the war is driving an affordability crisis for Americans as pushing a “hoax” or “scam” invented by Democrats. But internal campaign polling suggests that Trump’s argument has not resonated with American voters, the strategists said.
在采访中，甚至一些表示支持特朗普发动战争决定的共和党选民也承认，油价上涨正在考验他们的耐心。
terviews, even some Republican voters who say they support Trump’s decision to launch the war admit gas prices are testing their patience.
59岁的克莱·库伊（Clay Coey）表示，每当给他的2010款克莱斯勒Sebring加油时，他有时会感到肉疼，尽管他也说愿意暂时支付更高的油价，以消除他眼中对美国构成的重大安全威胁。
Clay Coey, 59, said he sometimes cringes when he fills the tank of his 2010 Chrysler Sebring, even as he says he’s willing to temporarily pay higher gas prices to eliminate what he sees as a major security threat to the U.S.
“我喜欢吗？不喜欢，我开着这辆老古董，”来自密歇根州德威特的拍卖师库伊说。“然而，总会有一个时刻，你得坐下来问自己，什么才值得付出这个代价？”一些选民表示，特朗普预测战争将在几周内结束，这是一次失误。
“Do I like it? No, I drive this old beast,” said Coey, an auctioneer from DeWitt, Michigan. “However, there does come a point in time where you have to sit here and say, what is worth the cost?”Some voters say Trump fumbled by predicting the war would be over in a matter of weeks.
爱荷华州莫维尔的61岁选民伊丽莎白·马莱特（Elizabeth Marlett）表示，她希望特朗普避免为冲突设定时间表，并希望他下令美军采取更强有力的行动，迫使德黑兰投降。尽管如此，她依然支持特朗普。
Elizabeth Marlett, 61, of Moville, Iowa, said she wished Trump had avoided setting a timeline for the conflict and wished he would order the U.S. military to act more forcefully to force Tehran to capitulate. Still, she’s sticking with Trump.
“我们需要支持我们的总统兼三军统帅，即使事情比预期的要长，”来自爱荷华州共和党占优势的西北部、经营小规模肉牛养殖场的马莱特说。“这就是生活，我们已经开始了，就不能逃避。”与此同时，特朗普发动战争的决定，被一些支持者视为对这位共和党领袖“美国优先”竞选核心承诺的背叛：即承诺让美国避免陷入那种拖累了他几位前任总统的“永久战争”。
“We need to support our commander in chief, even if things take longer than expected,” said Marlett, a small-herd beef rancher from Iowa’s GOP-heavy northwest. “That’s life, and we can’t run from something we’ve started.”Meanwhile, Trump’s decision to start the war has been seen by some supporters as a betrayal of a central tenet of the Republican leader’s “America First” campaign pledge: the promise to keep the U.S. out of the sort of “forever wars” that bogged down some of his recent White House predecessors.
在阿拉巴马州奥本大学就读的21岁学生肖恩·奥布莱恩（Sean O’Brien）表示，特朗普的伊朗决定让他“非常幻灭”。奥布莱恩今年早些时候曾参加保守派政治行动会议（Conservative Political Action Conference），这是右翼人士的一个大型聚会。现在，他正在重新审视自己的政治立场。
Sean O’Brien, 21, a student at Auburn University in Alabama, said Trump’s Iran decision left him “very disillusioned.”O’Brien earlier this year attended the Conservative Political Action Conference , a major gathering for those on the political right. Now, he’s rethinking his allegiances.
“目前，我预计会投给民主党，”自认为是独立选民的奥布莱恩说。博蒙特（Beaumont）在爱荷华州苏城发回报道。
“At the moment, I expect to vote Democratic,” said O’Brien, who considers himself an independent. Beaumont reported from Sioux City, Iowa.