字号·· | 护眼
政治报

特朗普的筹款优势掩盖了共和党的一个长期问题Trump’s fundraising dominance is masking a long-term problem for Republicans

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

特朗普于2023年在一次竞选活动中发表讲话。在他的第二个任期内,其数字业务仍在继续筹款,而其他共和党候选人则举步维艰。Trump speak at a campaign event in 2023. His digital operation has continued to fundraise in his second term, while other GOP candidates have struggled.

近年来,共和党的小额捐款者基数有所收缩,导致该党在资金支持上更加依赖一小群富有的超级捐赠者。

Republicans’ small-dollar donor base has contracted in recent years, leaving the party more dependent on a tiny group of wealthy megadonors for support.

由于有一小部分为超级政治行动委员会提供资金的大额捐赠者,共和党全年都拥有资金优势——仅埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)在本选举周期就捐赠了近5亿美元。但竞选团队本身的筹款额却相对较少,主要原因有一个:除了仍然是该党最大筹款人的总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)之外,共和党人仍然没有找到如何在网上筹集资金的方法。

The GOP has had a cash advantage all year thanks to a relatively small group of large donors who have funded super PACs — Elon Musk alone has given nearly half a billion dollars this cycle. But the campaigns themselves have raised relatively little, and there’s one major reason: Other than President Donald Trump, who is still the party’s biggest fundraiser, Republicans still haven’t figured out how to raise money online.

新的竞选财务申报文件揭示了这一问题的严重程度。长期以来,共和党一直在艰难扩大其基层捐款者基数,而在近年来情况却朝着错误的方向发展。通过共和党主要在线筹款平台WinRed捐款的联邦捐赠者数量有所下降,本选举周期迄今为止约有150万名捐赠者,而2022年同期为220万名。与此同时,ActBlue上的捐赠者数量增加了约三分之一,从490万名增加到约660万名。

New campaign finance filings reveal just how deep the problem goes. While Republicans have long struggled to grow their grassroots donor base, they’ve moved in the wrong direction in recent years. The number of federal donors giving through WinRed, the major GOP online fundraising platform, is down, with roughly 1.5 million donors so far this cycle compared to 2.2 million at this time in 2022. Meanwhile the number of donors has increased by about one third on ActBlue, from 4.9 million to roughly 6.6 million.

这种对比十分鲜明:根据《政治报》(POLITICO)对ActBlue和WinRed向联邦选举委员会提交的报告进行的分析,仅得克萨斯州的民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科(James Talarico)一人,在本选举周期中于ActBlue上获得的捐赠者数量,就大致相当于所有共和党候选人和委员会在WinRed上获得的捐赠者总数。

The contrast is stark: A single Democratic candidate, James Talarico in Texas, has had roughly the same number of donors on ActBlue this cycle as all Republican candidates and committees combined had on WinRed, according to a POLITICO analysis of reports ActBlue and WinRed submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

多年来一直在发出警告的共和党数字战略家表示,捐款滞后是疲劳所致,这是多年来向同一批潜在捐赠者发送紧急信息所导致的。

Republican digital strategists who have been sounding the alarm for years say lagging donations are a product of fatigue, driven by years of urgent messages to the same set of potential donors.

南卡罗来纳州的共和党数字战略家韦斯利·多内休(Wesley Donehue)表示:“我们在没有扩大[捐赠者名单]的情况下,通过短信和电子邮件对低额捐赠者进行了狂轰滥炸,现在没有人理睬了。”

“We beat the absolute hell out of low-dollar donors with texts and emails without expanding our [donor lists], and now no one pays attention,” said Wesley Donehue, a South Carolina-based GOP digital strategist.

共和党人在网络筹款方面的困境,使他们的众议院和参议院候选人处于特别不利的地位,因为候选人与超级政治行动委员会不同,面临着严格的捐款限制,需要从大得多的捐赠者群体中筹集资金。候选人筹款不力对竞选有着重大影响:民主党人在这一方面的资金优势帮助他们投放了与共和党数量几乎相等的广告,尽管他们的总体资金较少,因为候选人和政党在电视广播广告上能获得比超级政治行动委员会更优惠的费率。

Republicans’ online fundraising struggles have put their House and Senate candidates at a particular disadvantage, as candidates — unlike super PACs — face strict contribution limits and need a far larger pool of donors from which to raise money. Poor candidate fundraising has major campaign implications: Democrats’ cash advantage on that front has helped them run nearly as many ads as Republicans despite having less money overall, because candidates and parties get better rates than super PACs on broadcast TV.

民主党在基层筹款方面的实力,部分归因于该党的高度分散化,各个竞选团队和团体都在构建自己的捐赠者名单和筹款业务。今年网络筹款排名前列的民主党人几乎全部都是身处竞争激烈选区中的参议院候选人。

Democrats’ grassroots fundraising strength is in part because of how decentralized the party is, with individual campaigns and groups building their own donor lists and fundraising operations. Virtually all of the the top Democratic fundraisers online this year are Senate candidates in competitive races.

但共和党人的网络筹款与该党的许多事务一样,仍然以特朗普和官方党内委员会为中心。与民主党方面不同,很少有单独的共和党人能够脱颖而出。

But Republicans’ online fundraising, like so much of the party, is still centered around Trump and the official party committees. Unlike on the Democratic side, few individual Republicans have managed to break out.

共和党人的筹款困境让他们更加依赖特朗普:这位总统的超级政治行动委员会“MAGA Inc.”是中期选举中支出最多的机构之一。在经历了一个选举周期中大部分时间里来自共和党内部分希望其更早介入的压力之后,该组织及其关联机构目前已经花费了2.96亿美元。

Republicans’ fundraising troubles have left them more reliant on Trump: The president’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., is among the biggest midterm spenders. The group and its affiliates have now spent $296 million — after facing pressure for much of the cycle from some in the GOP who wished it would have gotten involved sooner.

“候选人没有在那些能够扩大捐赠者名单并吸引支持者进入生态系统的项目上投入时间和资源。相反,他们只是不断地轰炸过去的捐赠者,索要捐款,”资深共和党数字战略家、竞选创新中心执行主任埃里克·威尔逊(Eric Wilson)说,“向特朗普团队致敬——他们将新面孔带入了生态系统,而这些人仍在继续向他们捐款。”特朗普在重返白宫后一直在继续筹款,包括通过他的“永不屈服”领导层政治行动委员会(由其2024年竞选委员会组建)以及来自他历次总统竞选的两个联合筹款委员会进行筹款。

“Candidates are not investing the time and resources in programs that grow the donor lists and attract their supporters into the ecosystem. Instead, they just barrage previous donors with ongoing requests for donation,” said Eric Wilson, a longtime Republican digital strategist and executive director of the Center for Campaign Innovation. “Credit to the Trump team — they brought new people into the ecosystem, and those people continue to give to them.”Trump has continued to fundraise since returning to the White House, including through his Never Surrender leadership PAC, which was formed out of his 2024 campaign committee, and two joint fundraising committees from his previous presidential runs.

《政治报》(POLITICO)的分析发现,在本选举周期在WinRed平台上捐款的近150万名捐赠者中,有32.4万人——略超22%——仅通过该平台向特朗普的团体内捐款,而没有向任何其他候选人或委员会捐款。另有39%的WinRed捐赠者同时向特朗普和另一位共和党人捐过款。

Of the nearly 1.5 million donors who have given on WinRed this cycle, 324,000 of them — a bit over 22% — have given only to Trump’s groups through the platform but not any other candidate or committee, POLITICO’s analysis found. Another 39% of WinRed donors have given to both Trump and another Republican.

总体而言,这意味着在本选举周期中,大约五分之三的WinRed捐赠者都向特朗普捐过款,尽管此时他既不在选票上,也无法再次竞选总统。随着该党开始在2028年大选前寻找新的领军人物,这使得非特朗普阵营的共和党捐赠者沦为明显的少数。

Overall, that means about 3 in 5 WinRed donors this cycle have given to Trump, when he is neither on the ballot nor able to run for president again. That’s left non-Trump GOP donors in the clear minority just as the party begins to look for a new standard bearer ahead of 2028.

WinRed并不是唯一的共和党在线筹款平台,但它迄今为止是最大的一家,汇集了所有主要的党内委员会以及全美各地杰出的众议院和参议院候选人。其联邦选举委员会(FEC)报告仅包含联邦候选人和委员会,不包括使用该平台的州级竞选或非营利组织。

WinRed isn’t the only online GOP fundraising platform, but it is by far the largest and features all of the major party committees along with prominent House and Senate candidates across the map. Its FEC reports include only federal candidates and committees, not those in state-level races or nonprofits that use the platform.

共和党人曾一度将他们在网络筹款方面的劣势归咎于技术问题。自2000年代问世以来,ActBlue在21世纪10年代末为民主党人带来了巨大的筹款优势,而当时共和党还没有类似的集中式平台。于2019年推出的WinRed旨在抗衡这一局面。如今,策略师们表示,共和党的底层架构已经取得了长足进步,但该党的策略依然滞后。

Republicans once saw their online fundraising disadvantages as a matter of technology. ActBlue, which has been around since the 2000s, gave Democrats a major fundraising advantage in the late 2010s, at a time when Republicans had no similar centralized platform. WinRed, which launched in 2019, aimed to counter that. Now strategists say the GOP’s infrastructure has come a long way, but the party’s tactics still lag behind.

瞄准更高公职的民主党候选人通常会维持庞大的筹款业务,他们既可以用这些业务代表关键选区竞选中的候选人筹集资金,又可以建立自己的支持者名单。在本周期ActBlue筹款额排名前20的机构中,包括前交通部长皮特·布蒂吉格的领导政治行动委员会以及参议员马克·凯利(民主党-亚利桑那州)的竞选委员会。凯利在本周期早些时候利用共和党对其军旅生涯的攻击,既提升了自己的筹款额,又帮助了全国各地的民主党人。

Democratic candidates eyeing higher office often maintain large fundraising operations, which they can use to raise money on behalf of candidates in battleground races while also building their own lists. Among the top 20 ActBlue fundraisers this cycle are former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s leadership PAC and Sen. Mark Kelly’s (D-Ariz.) campaign committee. Kelly leveraged GOP attacks on his military service earlier this cycle to boost both his own fundraising and help Democrats across the map.

共和党策略师威尔逊将功劳归于非选举周期的民主党人,称他们建立了强大的支持者名单,并可用于支持其他候选人。他说,共和党方面缺乏类似的协调。

Wilson, the GOP strategist, credited out-of-cycle Democrats for building strong lists that they could use to shore up other candidates. The Republican side, he said, lacks similar coordination.

他说:“每当有民主党人宣布竞选连任时,那周参议院里的每一位民主党人都会向他们的支持者名单发送信息,为这个人筹集资金。”

“Any time a Democrat announces they're running for reelection, that week every Democrat in the Senate is sending a message to their list raising money for that person,” he said.

关于该分析:捐款总额和捐赠者人数基于本周期所有报告中的ActBlue和WinRed收据,涵盖2025年1月1日至2026年10月14日期间。随后退还的捐款仍包含在内。政治新闻网(POLITICO)的分析根据全名和邮政编码的匹配情况来识别不重复的捐赠者。

About the analysis: Donation totals and number of donors are based on ActBlue and WinRed receipts from all reports this cycle, covering Jan. 1, 2025, through Oct. 14, 2026. Donations that were later refunded are still included. POLITICO’s analysis identifies unique donors based on matching full names and zip codes.

阅读媒体原文 ↗