纽约州珍珠河 —— 共和党众议员迈克·劳勒和布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克是今年仅有的两名在副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯2024年大选中获胜的选区寻求连任的共和党人。尽管民主党人坚信一股蓝色浪潮最终将冲垮这两位共和党议员，但两人均认为，通过采取相似但截然不同的策略，他们能再次超越政治潮流。
PEARL RIVER, N.Y. — Reps. Mike Lawler and Brian Fitzpatrick are the only two Republicans running for re-election in districts this year where Vice President Kamala Harris prevailed in 2024. And while Democrats are confident a blue wave will finally wash away these two GOP lawmakers, both Republicans think they could once again rise above the political tide — by deploying similar but distinctly different strategies.
“当我同意总统时，我会说；当我不同意时，我也会说，”劳勒在珍珠河日街头集市间隙接受MS NOW采访时表示，“在对选区和选民至关重要的问题上反对总统，我有相当明确的记录。”
“When I agree with the president, I say it. When I disagree with him, I say it,” Lawler told MS NOW in an interview on the sideline of the Pearl River Day street fair. “I have a pretty clear record of pushing back on things that matter to my district and my constituents.”
在这方面，菲茨帕特里克采取了类似做法。这位宾夕法尼亚州共和党众议员在宾萨勒姆接受MS NOW采访时表示，选民“会以他们自己的方式看待总统”。
On that part, Fitzpatrick has embraced a similar approach. The Pennsylvania Republican told MS NOW during an interview in Bensalem, Pa., that voters “feel the way they’re going to feel about the president.”
他说：“我的工作是代表一个选区，这意味着当反对总统符合我们选区利益时，我就反对他。这也意味着当支持某项政策符合我们选区利益时，无论是谁提出的，我都予以支持。” 对这两位共和党人而言，“不同意时就不同意”的做法也存在风险。他们可能疏远部分共和党选民，也可能招致这位脾气多变的总统的愤怒。但该策略的效果或许被夸大了：据《费城问询报》统计，菲茨帕特里克约77%的时间与特朗普投出相同票；国会季刊2025年的一项分析显示，劳勒与特朗普的投票一致率高达94%。
“My job is to represent a district, and that means opposing him when doing so is in the interest of our district,” he said. “That means supporting policies, no matter who introduces them, when doing so is in the interest of our district.”For both Republicans, the ‘disagree when I disagree’ approach carries some risks. They could alienate some GOP voters and could draw the ire of a temperamental president. But the strategy may also be overstated: Fitzpatrick has voted with Trump roughly 77% of the time, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer. And a 2025 analysis from Congressional Quarterly found that Lawler voted with Trump 94% of the time.
但迄今为止，这套蓝图似乎奏效了。最新民调显示，劳勒与民主党人凯特·康利势均力敌，菲茨帕特里克与民主党人鲍勃·哈维也陷入胶着。值得注意的是，据AdImpact统计，双方在这两场竞选中总共投入的资金已超过8000万美元。
But thus far, the blueprint appears to be working. Recent polling shows Lawler neck-and-neck with Democrat Cait Conley and Fitzpatrick in a close race with Democrat Bob Harvie. Notably, both parties have dumped more than $80 million total for s into the two races, according to AdImpact.
哈里斯确实赢得了第三个目前由共和党议员代表的选区。但这位共和党议员、来自内布拉斯加州的众议员唐·培根并不寻求连任，民主党人认为他们将赢得该席位。在劳勒和菲茨帕特里克的情况下，情况则不那么明朗。
Harris did win a third district that’s currently represented by a Republican. But that GOP lawmaker, Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, isn’t running for re-election, and Democrats think they’ll pick up that seat. It’s much less clear in the cases of Lawler and Fitzpatrick.
2024年，劳勒以6.3%的优势在哈德逊河谷选区赢得连任，顺利开启其第二个国会任期。同年，哈里斯在该选区仅以0.6%的优势获胜。
In 2024, Lawler won re-election in his Hudson Valley district by 6.3%, sailing to his second term in Congress. That same year, Harris won by 0.6%.
菲茨帕特里克的差距更为明显，他在2024年以12.8%的优势赢得第五个任期，代表巴克斯县选区。而哈里斯在该选区仅以0.4%的优势获胜。
The margins were even more pronounced for Fitzpatrick, who marched to his fifth term representing his Bucks County district in 2024 by 12.8%. Harris, meanwhile, carried his district by 0.4%.
虽然劳勒和菲茨帕特里克有一个共同目标——在有利时拥抱总统，在不利时与其保持距离——但他们的策略略有不同。
While Lawler and Fitzpatrick share a goal — embrace the president when it helps and distance themselves when it hurts — their playbooks are slightly different.
劳勒每远离特朗普一步，似乎也会向特朗普靠近一步。这位纽约州共和党人曾在多项政策上批评总统，包括他决定终止海地移民的临时保护身份、与伊朗谅解备忘录的部分内容，以及最近对俄罗斯解除制裁。
For every step Lawler has moved away from Trump, he’s also taken a step toward him. The New York Republican has criticized the president on a number of policies, including his decision to end temporary protective status for Haitian immigrants, parts of his memorandum of understanding with Iran and, most recently, the rollback of sanctions on Russia.
但劳勒也曾在5月出席特朗普在罗克兰县举行的集会，并在9月的共和党全国代表大会上发言——许多摇摆选区的共和党人选择缺席该活动。对劳勒来说，考量很简单。
But Lawler also appeared with Trump at a rally the president held in Rockland County in May, and he spoke at the Republican convention in September — an event that many battleground Republicans skipped. For Lawler, the calculus is simple.
“他是美国总统，无论是乔·拜登还是唐纳德·特朗普，当总统来到你的选区时，你都要出席，”劳勒表示，并指出他曾在2023年出席拜登在其选区举办的活动。“要发挥作用，你必须能够与总统打交道，我做到了，”他说。
“He’s the president of the United States, and whether it was Joe Biden or Donald Trump, you show up when the president comes to your district,” Lawler said, noting that he attended Biden’s event in his district in 2023. “In order to be effective, you got to be able to deal with the president, and I’ve done that,” he said.
与此同时，菲茨帕特里克与特朗普保持了更大的距离。这位宾夕法尼亚州共和党人未出席共和党全国代表大会，从未出现在特朗普的竞选集会上，甚至未获得总统的背书。
Fitzpatrick, meanwhile, has kept Trump at a greater distance. The Pennsylvania Republican didn’t attend the GOP convention, has never appeared with Trump at a campaign rally and isn’t even endorsed by the president.
菲茨帕特里克去年也是仅有的两名投票反对共和党调解一揽子计划的共和党人之一，他还是最早投票限制特朗普在伊朗权力的共和党人之一。
Fitzpatrick was also one of just two Republicans to vote against the GOP’s reconciliation package last year, and he was one of the first Republicans to vote to curb Trump’s authority in Iran.
菲茨帕特里克说：“如果他的行事作风有失体统——而他非常、非常经常这样——我会直言不讳。”但他补充说，这其中存在一种平衡。他说：“这并不意味着你整天、每天都靠找别人的麻烦谋生。”
“If he conducts himself in a manner that’s unbecoming — which he has very, very often — I will say so,” Fitzpatrick said. But, he added, there’s a balance. “That doesn’t mean you just make a living out of just poking people in the eye all day, every day,” he said.
劳勒和菲茨帕特里克的相似但又不同的策略在距离选举日还有一周之际正变得清晰起来。民主党人只需翻转四个席位就能夺取众议院控制权——而劳勒和菲茨帕特里克都是主要目标。
The similar but different strategies for Lawler and Fitzpatrick are coming into focus one week before Election Day. Democrats need to flip just four seats to take control of the House — and both Lawler and Fitzpatrick are prime targets.
然而，随着共和党人开始在特朗普以双位数优势获胜的选区投入资金，劳勒和菲茨帕特里克坚决使他们的两场竞选都充满变数。
However, as Republicans begin spending in districts where Trump won by double digits, Lawler and Fitzpatrick have stubbornly made both of their races no sure thing.
尽管如此，即便公开民调显示两场竞选难分高下，民主党人依然表现出信心。
Still, even as public polls show the races in dead heats, Democrats are projecting confidence.
一位参与众议院竞选的民主党战略人士对MS NOW表示：“今年将是布赖恩·菲茨帕特里克和迈克·劳勒失去席位的一年。”
“This is the year that Brian Fitzpatrick and Mike Lawler lose their seats,” a Democratic strategist working on House races told MS NOW.
这名因需坦诚讨论选举而要求匿名的操盘手提到了哈维在巴克斯县的根基，以及康利作为受勋战斗退伍军人的身份。
The operative, who requested anonymity to candidly discuss the elections, cited Harvie’s roots in Bucks County and Conley’s status as a decorated combat veteran.
该战略人士说：“这就是为什么共和党人花费数百万美元干预民主党初选的原因。他们被吓得魂不附体，生怕下周输给她。”对于选民来说，劳勒和菲茨帕特里克是否真的是独立派，远未定论。
“It’s why Republicans spent millions to meddle in the Democratic primary,” the strategist said. “They are scared to death of losing to her next week.”For voters, the question of whether Lawler and Fitzpatrick are genuinely independent is far from settled.
来自纽约州塔潘的财务顾问罗杰·德博尼斯对MS NOW表示，他是一名支持特朗普并投票给劳勒的选民，他提到了这位国会议员具有独立作风。
Roger DeBonis, a financial adviser from Tappan, N.Y., told MS NOW he’s a Trump supporter voting for Lawler, citing the congressman’s independent streak.
“他不仅仅是为共和党摇旗呐喊，”德博尼斯说。“我恰好非常支持我们的总统，但他并非事事都对。”来自珍珠河的65岁会计师伯纳黛特·默里告诉MS NOW，她将投票给康利。被问及劳勒的温和倾向时，默里表示她并不认为这真的有什么区别。
“He doesn’t just tow the line for the Republican Party,” DeBonis said. “I happen to be a very big fan of our president, but he’s not right all the time.”Bernadette Murray, a 65-year-old accountant from Pearl River, told MS NOW she’s voting for Conley. Asked about Lawler’s moderate streak, Murray said she didn’t really think it made a difference.
“共和党永远不会有什么作为，”她说。“我认为他只是身处一个正在失败、到处伤害人的政党。”许多选民——或许数量足以决定胜负——依然可以被说服。
“Republicans are never gonna go anywhere,” she said. “I think he’s just in a party that is just failing, hurting people left and right.”Plenty of voters — perhaps a decisive number — remain persuadable.
来自波莫纳的62岁退休人员珍妮·萨尔瓦托告诉MS NOW，她在2024年投了哈里斯的票，原本打算支持康利。但在街头集市上见到劳勒后，她开始重新考虑。
Jeanine Salvato, a 62-year-old retiree from Pomona, told MS NOW she voted for Harris in 2024 and was planning on supporting Conley. But after meeting Lawler at the street fair, she’s reconsidering.
“当我和他交谈时，他有点重申了这一点，说他更偏向中间立场，”萨尔瓦托说，并补充道，劳勒“在能反击的时候会反击，我认为这很重要。”宾夕法尼亚州第1选区的选民同样意见分歧。有人认为菲茨帕特里克的中间路线是真诚的。也有人认为这是装出来的。
“When I spoke to him, he kind of reiterated that and said he’s more in the middle,” Salvato said, adding that Lawler “pushes back when he can, and I think that’s important.”Voters in Pennsylvania’s 1st district are similarly divided. Some see Fitzpatrick’s middle-of-the-road approach as genuine. Others say it’s an act.
来自巴克斯县的熟食店助理经理琳达·克劳告诉MS NOW，她将投票给菲茨帕特里克，并支持他的独立风格。“我确实支持特朗普，但有时事情可以有两种走向，”克劳说。
Linda Crawe, an assistant deli manager from Bucks County, told MS NOW she’s voting for Fitzpatrick and supports his independent streak. “I do support Trump, but sometimes there are things that can go either way,” Crawe said.
相比之下，来自费城的81岁退休护士米歇尔·托比亚表示，她将投票给哈维，因为菲茨帕特里克“是个变色龙”。72岁的退休人员卡罗尔·米库尔斯基也计划投票给哈维，尽管她不确定今年是否会是民主党击败菲茨帕特里克的一年。
In contrast, Michelle Tobia, an 81-year-old retired nurse from Philadelphia, said she’s voting for Harvie because Fitzpatrick is “a chameleon.”Carol Mikulsky, a 72-year-old retiree, also plans to vote for Harvie, though she’s not sure this will be the year Democrats oust Fitzpatrick.
“我们处于一个紫色选区，”她说。“我认为投票率不错，我们有机会。但我仍然觉得这会很困难。”尽管面临挑战，这两位共和党人都认为，他们选区的政治构成为他们提供了一条通往胜利的道路。
“We’re in a purple district,” she said. “I think the turnout is good, we have a chance. But I still think it’s going to be difficult.”Despite the challenges, both Republicans believe the political makeup of their districts gives them a path to victory.
对劳勒来说，这是一场数字游戏。他指出，他所在选区的民主党优势正在缩小：2020年，乔·拜登以10.1个百分点的优势赢得纽约州第17选区，而2024年哈里斯仅以0.6个百分点获胜。
For Lawler, it’s a numbers game. He points to the shrinking Democratic advantage in his district: In 2020, Joe Biden won NY-17 by 10.1 percentage points, compared to Harris’ 0.6-point victory in 2024.
劳勒还表示，民调显示选民对特朗普的看法一直非常稳定。他说，在过去四年中他对选区进行的十几次调查中，特朗普的不支持率一直徘徊在49%左右。
Lawler also noted that polling suggests voter opinions of Trump have remained remarkably consistent. In more than a dozen surveys he’s conducted of his district over the past four years, he said, Trump’s disapproval rating has hovered around 49%.
这些数据让劳勒认为，选民对特朗普的感受大多已成定局——而获胜需要既吸引他的支持者，也吸引他的批评者。
The statistics lead Lawler to believe that voter feelings about Trump are largely baked in — and that winning requires appealing to both his supporters and his critics.
“人们普遍感到沮丧，”劳勒说。“但我可以告诉你，这个选区以选票分裂著称——以务实著称，以常识著称。”对于菲茨帕特里克来说，论点更多涉及人口结构而非数据。虽然总统层面的民主党胜选幅度从2020年的4.6%下降到2024年的0.4%，但这位宾夕法尼亚州共和党人引用了他建立的广泛支持联盟。
“People are frustrated across the board,” Lawler said. “But I can tell you, this district is notorious for being ticket-splitters — for being pragmatic, for being common sense.”For Fitzpatrick, the argument is less about data and more about demographics. While the Democratic margin of victory on the presidential level decreased from 2020 to 2024 — 4.6% to 0.4% — the Pennsylvania Republican cited the broad coalition of support he’s built.
“我有大量的民主党支持者、独立支持者和共和党支持者，”菲茨帕特里克说。“我也在两个政党中都有反对者，因为许多政党成员希望我在意识形态上纯粹地站在一边或另一边。”随着选举日临近，劳勒和菲茨帕特里克都相信自己能够获胜。但他们也相信自己那种政治风格——一种他们表示，是他们唯一能够表现的风格。
“I have a ton of Democrat supporters, independent supporters and Republican supporters,” Fitzpatrick said. “I also have detractors in both parties, because many in the parties want me to be ideologically pure on one side or the other.”With Election Day approaching, Lawler and Fitzpatrick are confident they can win. But they’re also confident in their brand of politics — a style that, they say, is the only kind they can perform.
“这是我唯一能代表的选区，”菲茨帕特里克说。“我永远无法代表一个一边倒的选区，我对此想了很多。当人们说这是一个艰难的选区时，对我来说并不艰难。任何其他选区对我来说都会很艰难。”
“This is the only kind of district I could represent,” Fitzpatrick said. “I could never represent a lopsided district, and I’ve thought about that a lot. When people say it’s a tough district, it’s not tough for me. Any other district would be tough for me.”
劳勒则以典型的纽约风格，更加直率：“对我来说，我就是我，我不在乎为我所相信的事挺身而出所带来的政治后果。”“如果这让他们生气，”他说，“那就随它去吧。”
Lawler, in true New York fashion, was even blunter: “To me, I am who I am, and I don’t care the political consequence of standing up for what I believe in.”“And if it and if it pissed them off,” he said, “so be it.”