共和党众议员迈克·劳勒下周面临失去席位的危险。这已是再次。在过去两次选举中，现年40岁的劳勒凭借温和政策，在纽约州第17国会选区——今年中期选举中最胶着的战场选区之一——两次击败民主党对手。
The Republican congressman Mike Lawler is in danger of losing his seat next week. Again. In the last two elections, Lawler, 40, has defeated Democratic opponents in New York’s 17th congressional district – one of the closest-run battlegrounds in this year’s midterms – with moderate policies.
但随着民调显示竞选形势胶着，且唐纳德·特朗普的支持率下滑给全国共和党人带来压力，劳勒并未指望顺利连任。
But with polls pointing to a tight race, and Donald Trump’s declining approval ratings piling pressure on Republicans nationwide, Lawler is not banking on re-election.
“所有自以为知道11月会发生什么的人，我认为都是在欺骗自己，”劳勒最近对美联社表示。“这不像任何正常的中期选举。”劳勒强调打击犯罪和解决民生负担的竞选信息，帮助他在2022年击败一位实力强劲的民主党人，并自20世纪80年代中期以来首次将该选区——位于下哈德逊河谷、对民主党比共和党更有利的地区——翻红。
“Everybody who thinks they know what’s going to happen in November I think is fooling themselves,” the congressman told the Associated Press recently. “This is not like any normal midterm.”Lawler’s tough-on-crime and affordability messaging helped him defeat a powerful Democrat in 2022 and flip the district, an area in the lower Hudson valley that leans more favorably for Democrats than Republicans, for the first time since the mid-1980s.
他作为一名愿意跨党派合作的共和党人的声誉，使他在2024年赢得关键工会支持，并说服选民让他留任。甚至前民主党总统乔·拜登也在2023年称赞劳勒是“我习惯打交道的那种共和党人”，且“不是那些‘让美国再次伟大’（MAGA）共和党人之一”。
His reputation as a Republican willing to work across the aisle earned him key labor unions’ support in 2024 and convinced voters to keep him in office. Even Joe Biden, the former Democratic president, praised Lawler in 2023 for being “the kind of Republican I was used to dealing with” and “not one of these Maga Republicans”.
“共和党人要在纽约第17选区获胜需要什么？”一位不愿具名的前共和党领袖10月在当地新闻媒体《城市与州纽约》中被引述问道。“你需要成为迈克·劳勒。”
“What does it take for a Republican to win in NY-17?” an unnamed former Republican party leader was quoted asking in City & State New York, a local news outlet, in October. “You need to be Mike Lawler.”
这一次，劳勒面临一组新的挑战，与伊朗战争影响挂钩的生活成本持续高企引发的不满挥之不去。
Lawler is facing a new set of challenges this time around, as sustained frustration over the cost of living, tied to the impact of Trump’s war with Iran, looms large.
劳勒三次投票反对一项旨在限制特朗普对伊朗军事行动的决议。他还支持特朗普的《一个宏伟美好的法案》，该法案预计将导致50万纽约人失去医保，并削减第17选区一家医院的资金。
Lawler voted against a resolution that aimed to rein in Trump’s military action in Iran three times. He also supported Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which was expected to cause half a million New Yorkers to lose health insurance and cut funding for a hospital in the 17th district.
他在二月的一次市政厅会议上遭到愤怒选民质询后，为移民与海关执法局（ICE）官员的行为辩护，并在五月与美国总统特朗普在罗克兰县举行集会时，强调自己与特朗普的工作关系。
He defended Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers’ actions after being confronted by angry constituents during a town hall in February and highlighted his working relationship with Trump while rallying with the US president in Rockland county in May.
凯特·康利，法勒的民主党对手，在整个竞选期间都指责这位共和党议员与特朗普关系密切，希望利用对总统不满的选民。
Cait Conley, Lawler’s Democratic opponent, has pointed to the Republican lawmaker’s proximity to Trump throughout her campaign, hoping to capitalize on voters disgruntled with the US president.
“我们在这个政府下所看到的一切——由我的对手迈克·法勒助长，他继续在每一个重要问题上100%支持特朗普——就是他让哈德逊河谷家庭的生活变得更艰难，而非更好，”康利本月早些时候在与法勒的辩论中对选民说。“你们需要的是爱国者，而非傀儡，”她补充道。
“What we have seen under this administration – enabled by my opponent, Mike Lawler, who continues to vote with Donald Trump on every issue that matters 100% of the time – is he has made lives for Hudson valley families harder, not better,” Conley told voters during a debate with Lawler earlier this month. “You deserve a patriot, not a puppet,” she added.
法勒本已面临一场艰难的竞争。库克政治报告在一月份将纽约州第17国会选区从“倾向共和党”调整为“摇摆州”。虽然该选区向民主党倾斜1个百分点，但民调未能描绘出清晰的图景。
Lawler was already facing a tough contest. The Cook Political Report moved New York’s 17th congressional district from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” in January. While it leans +1 toward Democrats, polling has been unable to paint a clear picture.
在爱默生学院民调/PIX 11对400名可能选民的调查中，48%的人表示将投票给康利，46%的人表示将投票给法勒。但另有7%的人尚未决定。由麦克劳克林与协会公司进行、共和党赞助的一项民调显示，法勒获得50%，康利获得47%。两党都向这场竞选投入了数百万美元。
In an Emerson College Polling/PIX 11 survey of 400 likely voters, 48% said they’d vote for Conley while 46% said they’d vote for Lawler. But another 7% were undecided. A McLaughlin & Associates poll, sponsored by Republicans, put Lawler at 50% and Conley at 47%. Both parties have poured millions of dollars into the race.
康利是一名退伍军人和前国家安全官员，她在网上持续发帖，提醒人们法勒与特朗普结盟。
Conley, a veteran and former national security official, consistently posts online reminding people that Lawler is allied with Trump.
法勒在一些问题上与总统持不同意见。去年，他与特朗普争论，力求提高州和地方税（Salt）扣除上限。他敦促白宫延长海地移民的临时保护身份；纽约州第17选区居住着大量海地移民。最近，他公开反对特朗普与俄罗斯的柴油交易，表示“一个子儿”都不该给弗拉基米尔·普京。
Lawler has broken with the president on some issues. Last year, he fought Trump to raise the cap for state and local tax (Salt) deductions. He urged the White House to extend temporary protected status for Haitian immigrants; New York’s 17th district is home to a large population of Haitian immigrants. Most recently, he publicly opposed Trump’s diesel deal with Russia, stating that “not one penny” should go to Vladimir Putin.
“当我同意总统的观点时，我愿意说出来，”劳勒今年早些时候在一次竞选活动后对记者说。“当我不同意他的观点时，我也愿意说出来。”劳勒试图在某些政策上挑战特朗普、同时仍大体支持美国总统议程之间走钢丝。但他在以往选举中作为候选人的真正优势，在于与选民建立联系——这些选民也是他的终身邻居，他坚持举办面对面的市政厅会议，即使会议变得剑拔弩张。
“When I agree with the president, I’m willing to say it,” Lawler told reporters after a campaign event earlier this year. “And when I disagree with him, I’m willing to say it.”Lawler has tried to toe the line between challenging Trump on certain policies while remaining largely supportive of the US president’s agenda. But his real strength as a candidate in previous elections was connecting with his constituents, who are also his lifelong neighbors, consistently hosting in-person town halls – even when they turn contentious.
劳勒非常了解他的选民。在一个拥有大量东正教犹太裔人口的选区，他走访过犹太洁食购物中心，并提出立法打击反犹太主义。“我见劳勒的次数比见我拉比的次数还多，”该选区的注册民主党选民约西·盖斯特纳2024年对《纽约时报》说。
Lawler knows his constituents well. In a district with a large population of Orthodox Jewish people, he has toured kosher shopping centers and introduced legislation to fight antisemitism. “I’ve seen Lawler more times than I’ve seen my rabbi,” Yossi Gestetner, a registered Democrat in the district, told the New York Times in 2024.
这种策略在2022年和2024年为劳勒奏效。他似乎这次又在沿用这一策略。周一，他效仿特朗普的竞选手册，在哈弗斯特罗的一家麦当劳当了几小时员工。
Such strategies worked for Lawler in 2022 and 2024. He’s seemingly leaning on it again this time around. On Monday, he took a page from Trump’s campaign book to work as a McDonald’s employee in Haverstraw for a few hours.
但如果周二全国出现“蓝色浪潮”，劳勒的选区将成为焦点。他的声望是否足以说服选民让他留任，仍有待观察。
But should a blue wave sweep the country on Tuesday, Lawler’s district will be front and center. Whether his reputation is enough to convince voters to keep him in office remains to be seen.