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美联社决策笔记:选举日纽约州有哪些看点AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New York on Election Day

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2026年10月26日星期一,美国众议员迈克·劳勒在纽约州哈弗斯特劳一家麦当劳的免下车窗口为顾客服务。(美联社照片/塞思·韦尼格)U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler serves a customer at the drive-up window of a McDonald's in Haverstraw, N.Y., Monday, Oct. 26, 2026. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

卡米尔·贝克 华盛顿 —— 纽约州一些最富裕的国会选区——第3、第4和第17选区——的激烈竞争,可能有助于决定民主党能否重新夺回对美国众议院的控制权。

CAMILLE BAKER WASHINGTON — Competitive races in some of New York’s wealthiest congressional districts — the 3rd, 4th and 17th — could help decide whether Democrats regain control over the U.S. House.

民主党需要在众议院获得三个席位才能取得多数。在潜在翻盘的首要目标中,第17选区是一名两届共和党议员在对共和党不利的环境中面临艰难的连任之战。

Democrats need to gain three seats in the chamber to attain a majority. Among the top targets for potential pickups is the 17th District, where a two-term Republican is facing a difficult reelection battle in an unfavorable climate for Republicans.

现任共和党议员迈克·劳勒正在捍卫他的席位,对手是民主党人凯特·康利,后者是一名曾在国家安全委员会任职的陆军作战老兵。劳勒在2022年以不到一个百分点的优势赢得该席位。他在2024年的胜选优势扩大到六个百分点以上。劳勒是少数几位在同时支持民主党前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯竞选总统的国会选区中当选的共和党人之一。

The incumbent Republican in the race, Mike Lawler, is defending his seat against Democrat Cait Conley, an Army combat veteran who served on the National Security Council. Lawler won the seat in 2022 by less than one percentage point. He increased his margin of victory to over six percentage points in 2024. Lawler was one of the few Republicans elected in a congressional district that also supported Democratic former Vice President Kamala Harris for president.

第17选区涵盖下哈德逊河谷的富裕郊区和工薪阶层社区。劳勒以他在国会的履历为竞选卖点,强调他在减税和降低生活成本方面的工作。尽管劳勒曾与唐纳德·特朗普总统一同竞选,但随着总统支持率持续暴跌,他也试图强调自己的两党合作记录以及愿在某些问题上与总统持不同意见。康利则强调自己的工薪阶层出身,并承诺如果当选将削减开支、禁止国会议员炒股。

The 17th District covers wealthy suburbs and working-class communities in the Lower Hudson Valley. Lawler has campaigned on his record in Congress, highlighting his work to cut taxes and decrease the cost of living. And though Lawler has campaigned with President Donald Trump, as the president’s approval rating continues to plunge , he has also sought to emphasize his bipartisan record and willingness to disagree with the president on certain issues. Conley has emphasized her working class roots, and pledged to cut costs and ban congressional stock trading, if elected.

这场竞选已成为本周期全美最昂贵的众议院竞选之一。截至10月中旬,康利竞选团队筹集了约1070万美元,而劳勒筹集了1030万美元。外部团体又向该竞选投入了数百万美元。

The race has become one of the most expensive House races in the country this cycle. The Conley campaign had raised about $10.7 million as of mid-October, while Lawler had raised $10.3 million. Outside groups have poured millions more into the race.

在第3选区,该选区横跨皇后区东北部和长岛北岸部分地区,民主党籍众议员汤姆·苏奥齐(Tom Suozzi)面临共和党人迈克尔·利佩特里(Michael LiPetri, Jr.)的挑战,后者是前州众议员,获得了特朗普的背书。苏奥齐和利佩特里在2024年大选中也曾交手,当时苏奥齐以不到四个百分点的优势获胜。苏奥齐于2024年初就职,此前他在一场特别选举中获胜,接替了共和党籍众议员乔治·桑托斯(George Santos)的席位;桑托斯因被控电信诈骗和洗钱罪名而被众议院开除。苏奥齐此前曾在2017年至2023年期间代表该选区。

In the 3rd District, which spans across northeast Queens and part of the North Shore of Long Island, Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi is facing a challenge from Republican Michael LiPetri, Jr., a former state assembly member endorsed by Trump. Suozzi and LiPetri also faced each other in the 2024 election, when Suozzi won by less than four percentage points. Suozzi took office in early 2024 after winning a special election to take over the seat of Republican Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from the House after being indicted for wire fraud and money laundering. Suozzi previously represented the district from 2017 to 2023.

这个富裕的第3选区包含拿骚、萨福克和皇后三个县的部分地区,在2024年大选中支持特朗普而非哈里斯,但在上一次大选中则青睐前总统乔·拜登。

The wealthy 3rd District, which includes parts of Nassau, Suffolk and Queens counties, sided with Trump over Harris in the 2024 election, but favored former President Joe Biden in the election prior.

苏奥齐将自己塑造为一位愿意跨党派合作、并对抗特朗普政府政策的候选人,特别是那些影响美国人生活成本的政策,如关税和伊朗战争。他把利佩特里描绘成特朗普的忠实追随者。利佩特里则反击,将自己包装为一位接地气的候选人,攻击苏奥齐是职业政客,并批评他的股票交易。

Suozzi has campaigned as a candidate willing to reach across the aisle and to fight Trump administration policies, especially those that have affected Americans’ cost of living, like tariffs and the war in Iran. He has painted LiPetri as a Trump devotee. LiPetri has countered by casting himself as a down-to-earth candidate, attacking Suozzi as a career politician and criticizing his stock trades.

截至10月中旬,苏奥齐筹集了760万美元,远超利佩特里的260万美元。但外部团体也花费数百万美元来反对苏奥齐。

Suozzi has outraised LiPetri, amassing $7.6 million as of mid-October, compared to LiPetri’s $2.6 million. But outside groups have also spent millions to oppose Suozzi.

在第4国会选区,民主党籍众议员劳拉·吉伦(Laura Gillen)面临共和党人珍妮·德里斯科尔(Jeanine Driscoll)的挑战,后者是当地税务官员。该选区位于长岛南岸,完全在拿骚县境内。吉伦在2024年大选中击败了时任共和党籍众议员安东尼·德埃斯波西托(Anthony D’Esposito),此前她在2022年曾以微弱劣势败给对方。德埃斯波西托拒绝在2026年再次竞选该席位,这对共和党在该选区的前景构成打击。

In the 4th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen is being challenged by Republican Jeanine Driscoll, a local tax official. The district is on the South Shore of Long Island and is entirely within Nassau County. Gillen ousted then-GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito in the 2024 election, after narrowly losing to him in 2022. In a blow to Republicans’ prospects in the district, D’Esposito declined to run for the seat again in 2026.

纽约州长选举中,现任民主党州长凯西·霍楚(Kathy Hochul)将竞选连任,成为纽约州首位女性州长。她的共和党挑战者是拿骚县行政长官布鲁斯·布莱克曼(Bruce Blakeman)。投票将于美东时间晚9点截止。

In the gubernatorial race, Gov. Kathy Hochul, the incumbent Democrat, is running for a second full term as New York’s first female governor. Her Republican challenger is Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, a Republican. Polls close at 9 p.m. ET. The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in races for governor, U.S. House, attorney general, ballot measures in New York City, state Supreme Court, state Senate, state Assembly and state comptroller.

美联社将公布州长、美国众议院、司法部长、纽约市公投、州最高法院、州参议员、州众议员及州审计长的选举结果并宣布胜者。2022年纽约州参议院竞选中,约有580万张选票已投出。

About 5.8 million votes were cast in the 2022 race for the U.S. Senate in New York.

在2022年纽约州参议院竞选中,约26%的选票为提前投票或缺席投票。最新的提前投票计票数据可在美联社提前投票追踪器中找到。

About 26% of all ballots cast in New York’s 2022 race for U.S. Senate were cast early or by absentee ballot. The latest advance vote totals for New York can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker .

纽约州各县和纽约市预计在当晚的第一轮更新中,将发布大部分或全部提前投票和邮寄投票的结果,通常在任何现场投票结果公布之前。

New York state counties and New York City are expected to release most or all of their results from early voting and mail voting in the first vote update of the night, usually before any results from in-person Election Day voting are released.

2024年选举第一轮结果于2024年11月5日美东时间晚9点01分开始报告,比投票截止时间晚一分钟。该州在晚9点55分达到50%的计票进度,晚11点46分达到90%。

The first results of the 2024 election were reported starting at 9:01 p.m. ET on Nov. 5, 2024, one minute after polls closed. The state reached 50% of votes reporting at 9:55 p.m. ET, and 90% of votes reporting at 11:46 p.m.

在纽约州,若超过100万张选票投出且获胜差距不足5000票,则自动启动重新计票;若获胜差距在20票以内或不超过总票数的0.5%,则触发重新计票。若美联社能够确定领先优势过大,不足以进行重新计票或法律挑战改变结果,它仍可宣布某场选举的胜者。

ET. In New York, an automatic recount is triggered in races where more than 1 million votes are cast if the margin of victory is less than 5,000 votes. A recount is triggered in smaller races if the margin of victory is 20 votes or less or 0.5% or less of the total votes cast. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

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