When Democrats rallied for House candidate Cait Conley in Chappaqua, New York, early Saturday morning, the crowd cheered as speakers counted down the minutes until early voting in New York state began at 10 a.m. That fervor is a challenge for Representative Mike Lawler and other Republicans defending House districts like this one — affluent and well-educated, where voters overwhelmingly disapprove of President Donald Trump.

In the Trump era, the GOP has lost significant support among White, college-educated voters. Today, Republicans hold only 50 of the 212 House districts where the share of White residents with a four-year degree exceeds the national norm; as recently as 2015, Republicans held 70 of 194 such districts.

Despite those losses, House Republicans have generally benefited from the electorate’s educational realignment. Under Trump, they have solidified their hold on the slight majority of districts (223) where the share of Whites with a college degree lags the national average. But this year, Republicans face a two-front threat. The cracks in the president’s support among non-college voters are allowing Democrats to contest blue-collar seats across the industrial heartland. And Trump’s deep unpopularity with college-educated voters is endangering the remaining House Republicans in affluent suburbs.

The GOP appears especially vulnerable in seats like Lawler’s, which I call “educated enclaves.”These are districts where the share of White residents and the share of those residents with at least a bachelor’s degree both exceed the national average. Democrats now hold 54 of the seats in that basket, and Republicans only 37, and as many as one-third of those Republicans face tough races.

Lawler is a prime example. His district — which stretches from Westchester commuter towns outside New York City into the picturesque Hudson Valley — exemplifies the affluent suburban terrain that has moved toward Democrats in recent decades. The median income in the district exceeds $123,000 and over 56% of its White residents hold at least a four-year college degree. Lawler was narrowly first elected in 2022 amid disappointment in President Joe Biden’s first two years and then comfortably won reelection in 2024, even though Kamala Harris slightly bested Trump in the district.

Both sides agree Lawler faces greater risk today. He spent his entire career as a Republican political operative before stepping onstage to become a candidate. Especially at a time when politicians face widespread distrust, Conley, an Army veteran and former counterterrorism and cybersecurity official for Biden, presents a much sharper contrast with that background than Lawler’s previous two Democratic opponents, who were both elected officials. “Over the last 20 years while I was out defending our democracy,” Conley declares in one ad, “Mike Lawler found every way possible to profit from it.”The sharp edge on that message is typical of this race.

Lawler always highlights the relatively few issues on which he has broken with Trump (such as his opposition to ending enhanced healthcare subsidies and to withdrawing Temporary Protected Status from the district’s large Haitian population). But when I asked him if his district was better off because of Trump’s second-term policies, he immediately answered, “Yeah.”

He defends Trump’s tariffs as necessary to reverse decades of manufacturing job loss. He’s called the Iran War “a righteous decision.”And he champions the 2025 Trump tax bill. “Don’t let the Democrats tell you this was tax cuts for billionaires,” Lawler roared at a raucous rally late last week where he was endorsed by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and about two dozen other unions. “That’s complete and utter bulls--t. It was tax cuts for working class people, like each and every one of you.”

In a bruising debate with Conley earlier this month, Lawler repeatedly sought to shift voter discontent away from Trump and toward Democrats. He blamed Biden’s foreign policy for international turmoil. He pointed toward New York Governor Kathy Hochul for high utility, housing and energy costs. He linked Conley, who’s run as a centrist, to far-left Democrats such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

But this redirection may not allow Lawler to escape the undertow of the district’s deepening alienation from the president. Like Democratic candidates everywhere, Conley slams Lawler for voting repeatedly to support Trump’s tariffs, the Iran war and the healthcare cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. “Every time it has mattered … where was Mike Lawler? Standing side by side with Donald Trump,” she insisted during their bruising debate. In an interview, Conley briskly said she would vote to overturn Trump’s tariffs and healthcare cuts and to stop the war — while Lawler, when I spoke with him, notably avoided any firm pledges.

“I’ve been able to deliver real results for my district, precisely because I can work with anybody,” Lawler told reporters after his Teamsters rally. It’s an argument voters have heard this year from Maine Senator Susan Collins and other Republicans in swing areas.

But conversations with residents at the Chappaqua farmer’s market after Conley’s rally made clear many want a representative who confronts Trump instead of haggling with him. “You can say whatever you want about how independent you are, but we know how you voted,” Tomas, who works in advertising marketing, and asked not to provide his last name, told me. Jennifer, an events planner, likewise said that Lawler and other Republicans who present themselves as independent “can’t or won’t” stand up to Trump when it matters most. “There needs to be a check on the administration,” Alex, a physician, simply said, to explain why he wanted a Democratic Congress.

The remaining House Republicans who have survived in these blue-trending, well-educated seats are almost all skillful politicians. They remind me of the Democrats who held on for years in the working-class seats the GOP now dominates. Eventually, though, in the 2010 tea party election, many of those Democrats were swept away in a towering partisan tide. The same 100-year flood could be approaching for the remaining Republicans in educated enclaves.