
阿尔伯塔省省长丹尼尔·史密斯在九个公投问题上请求的“强有力授权”从未实现。
The “strong mandates” that Premier Danielle Smith requested on her nine referendum questions never materialized.
但除了支持率疲软外,史密斯表达不愿迅速采取行动(即便是在她赢得多数支持的移民问题上)可能还有另一个原因。
But aside from soft support, there might be another reason Smith is expressing reluctance to act quickly, even on the immigration questions where she won a majority.
考虑到史密斯政府自身的执政授权并非源于普选票——而是基于在阿尔伯塔省87个选区中赢得多数席位。
Consider that Smith’s own government mandate isn’t derived from the popular vote — it’s based on prevailing in a majority of Alberta’s 87 seats.
通过筛选所有公投问题的选区结果,可以看出一些明显的政治信号。以下是几点启示:
And sifting through the riding results from all the referendum questions, some apparent political signals emerge. Here are some takeaways:
选区对七个问题说“不”史密斯表示将最快针对支持率最高的投票议题采取行动——即第5项,要求在省选投票时出示加拿大公民身份证明(获得58%支持)。
Ridings say no to seven of nine Smith has signalled she’ll act most quickly on the ballot measure that got the most support — Question 5, to require proof of Canadian citizenship when voting in provincial elections (58 per cent support).
她还意图继续从渥太华手中争取更多阿省移民控制权,正如第1项所建议的(获得55%支持)。
She’s also intent to continue wresting from Ottawa more provincial control over immigration to Alberta, as Question 1 suggested (55 per cent support).
第2、3、4项的胜利差距较小,分别旨在以各种方式限制临时居民的社会服务和经济支持。但在这三个问题上,每个问题都有微弱多数的选区投了反对票——这意味着,虽然史密斯的四个问题在总得票数上失利,但如果按选区逐个较量,她的九个问题中将有七个落败。
The victory margins were tighter on Questions 2, 3 and 4, to variously restrict social services and financial supports for temporary residents. But on each of those questions, a slight majority of ridings went no — meaning that while four of Smith’s questions failed in terms of total vote, seven of nine would have lost if this was a riding-by-riding contest.
埃德蒙顿几乎一致反对那些临时居民问题,卡尔加里仅有六个选区支持这些问题。
Edmonton was almost uniformly opposed to those temporary resident questions, and only six Calgary ridings were supportive of them.
上届大选中有十二个卡尔加里选区投给了统一保守党(UCP),这表明卡尔加里几个在2023年大选中支持史密斯的地区,并不认同她关于谁应或不应获得全额医疗和教育保障的主张。
Twelve Calgary ridings had gone UCP in the last election, which suggests that several parts of Calgary that supported Smith in the 2023 election weren’t on board with her ideas on who should or shouldn’t get fully covered health and education Constitutionally blocked The per-riding results on Question 1 (48 yes, 39 no) roughly tracked the seat math after the last provincial election (48 UCP, 39 NDP).
宪法层面受阻第1项的逐选区结果(48个赞成,39个反对)大致与上届省选后的席位数学(统一保守党48席,新民主党39席)相吻合。
But on Questions 6 to 9, Smith would have been on the wrong end of the sort of landslides that former premiers Ralph Klein Jason Kenney enjoyed, had this referendum been settled riding by riding.
但在第6至9题上,史密斯将面临类似前任总理拉尔夫·克莱因和杰森·肯尼所享受的那种压倒性劣势,假如此次公投是按选区逐个决出胜负的话。
More than two-thirds of ridings voted no to Question 8 on opting out of federal social service programs, the most lopsided of the constitutional ballot measures.
在关于退出联邦社会服务项目的第8题上,超过三分之二的选区投出了反对票,这是宪法类投票议题中立场最为一边倒的一项。但在所有议题上,反对票都是在50个以上选区中的主流选择。
But in all of them, no was the popular choice in more than 50 constituencies. Not a single riding in Edmonton or Calgary said yes to a single one of the constitutional questions.
埃德蒙顿和卡尔加里没有一个选区对任何一项宪法问题投出了赞成票。
Rural Alberta, however, stayed loyal to Smith’s push for more provincial powers and to tilt Canada’s Constitution in favour of Alberta.
然而,阿尔伯塔省农村地区依然忠于史密斯争取更多省级权力、使加拿大宪法向有利于阿尔伯塔方向倾斜的推动。
Blue wall, orange wall Premier Smith asked voters to vote yes on all nine questions that didn’t threaten national unity; NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi was effectively part of the “no to the nine” campaign.
蓝墙、橙墙 史密斯总理要求选民对所有九个不威胁国家统一的问题投赞成票;新民主党领袖纳希德·内希实际上参与了“对九项全投反对票”的竞选活动。
According to Elections Alberta, 24 ridings voted no down the line, while 27 voted yes to all of them.
根据阿尔伯塔省选举局数据,24个选区在所有问题上均投反对票,而27个选区在所有问题上均投赞成票。
Alberta referendum tallies reveal rural-urban divide on ‘the 9’ What went all the UCP government’s way?
阿尔伯塔公投计票揭示城乡在“九项议题”上的分歧 什么完全符合统合保守党政府的意愿?在2023年坚定支持该党的选区,包括所有以农村或小城镇为主的选区,以及包含大草原城、梅迪辛哈特和麦克默里堡的选区。
Ridings that solidly backed the party in 2023, including all predominantly rural or small-town seats, as well as the seats that include Grande Prairie, Medicine Hat and Fort McMurray. The all-no seats?
全投反对票的选区?其中大部分位于埃德蒙顿,一些位于卡尔加里市中心及其东北部,还有圣艾伯特——该选区在过去三次选举中均支持新民主党——以及班夫-卡纳纳斯基斯,该选区在统合保守党和新民主党之间摇摆不定。摇摆选区?
Most of them were in Edmonton, some in inner-city Calgary and its northeast, as well as St. Albert — a seat which has gone NDP in the last three elections — and Banff-Kananaskis, which has swung back and forth between UCP and NDP. Swing ridings? While a majority of ridings in Alberta went either solidly yes or solidly no, that still leaves 36 provincial constituencies where voters were choosier about how they marked their referendum ballots.

虽然阿尔伯塔省大多数选区要么坚定投赞成票,要么坚定投反对票,但仍有36个省级选区的选民在标记公投选票时更为挑剔。
Which seats were running hot and cold on Smith’s plea for referendum support, and might wind up being hotly contested in next year’s election?
哪些选区在史密斯恳请公投支持的问题上态度冷热不一,并可能成为明年大选中竞争最激烈的战场?
Of Calgary’s 26 ridings, 18 of them delivered a mixed yes-and-no verdict on the referendum questions.
卡尔加里的 26 个选区中,有 18 个在公投问题上投出了“是”与“否”并存的混合结果。这其中包括少数新民主党把持的席位,以及该省最大城市内所有统一保守党把持的席位。
That includes a handful of NDP-held seats — as well as all the UCP-held seats in the province's largest city. A few suburban Edmonton constituencies broke up the capital’s preference for no with yes majorities on Question 5.
埃德蒙顿少数郊区选区打破了首府倾向“否”的态势,在问题 5 上投出了“是”的多数。
Most of the ridings that surround Edmonton — known politically as the doughnut — swung between yes and no, including NDP-held Sherwood Park, as well as UCP-controlled Spruce Grove-Stony Plain, Strathcona-Sherwood Park, Morinville-St.
环绕埃德蒙顿的大多数选区——政治上被称为“甜甜圈地带”——在“是”与“否”之间摇摆,其中包括新民主党把持的谢伍德公园,以及统一保守党控制的云杉林-斯托尼普莱恩、斯特拉思科纳-谢伍德公园、莫林维尔-圣艾伯特和勒杜克-博蒙特。
Albert and Leduc-Beaumont.
莱斯布里奇的两个席位也是好坏参半,这与过去几届选举中的政治表现一致。
Lethbridge’s two seats were a mixed bag too, as they have been politically in the last few elections.
阿尔伯塔省另外两座约 10 万人口的城市——红鹿市和快速增长的艾尔德里——在最近的投票中更一贯地支持统一保守党。但这四个城市的所有选区里,选民都违背了史密斯争取全盘胜利的意图,对问题 8 投了反对票(在艾尔德里-科克伦选区也对问题 9 投了反对票)。
Voters in Alberta’s other two cities of around 100,000 people — Red Deer and rapidly growing Airdrie— have been more consistently UCP in recent votes. But in all four of those cities’ ridings, voters defied Smith’s bid for a clean sweep by voting against Question 8 (and Question 9, in Airdrie-Cochrane).

卡尔加里-肖选区“变橙”了,但……新民主党领袖内西在 9 月的卡尔加里-肖补选中,夺下了一个原本深度蓝色的郊区席位。
Calgary-Shaw went orange, but…Nenshi’s NDP managed to take away a formerly deep-blue suburban seat in September, in the Calgary-Shaw byelection.
这个备受关注的选区上周在所有移民问题上投了“是”,但在所有宪法问题上投了“否”。
The much-watched riding voted yes to all immigration questions last week, but no to all constitutional questions.
这种模式更接近卡尔加里-佩根、卡尔加里-东南和卡尔加里-海斯等统一保守党选区的投票倾向。
That more closely resembles voting patterns in other UCP ridings like Calgary-Peigan, Calgary-South East and Calgary-Hays.
然而,引人注目的是,与新民主党把持的选区投票结果更相似的,竟是卡尔加里-西选区:该选区在问题 5(公民身份标识)上投了“是”,其余问题全投“否”。该席位自 2015 年起由副省长迈克·埃利斯把持。
However, it’s striking which seat featured a voting result more similar to NDP-held districts: Calgary-West, which voted yes to Question 5 on citizenship markers, but no to the rest. That seat has been held by Deputy Premier Mike Ellis since 2015.