在下周二的美国中期选举中，最重要的选战集中在那些民调显示共和党与民主党陷入胶着的少数州和选区。
The most important elections in next Tuesday's U.S. midterms are in the handful of states and districts where polling suggests the Republicans and Democrats are locked in tight races.
民主党只需净增三个席位即可控制这座拥有435个席位的众议院，民调分析表明这一目标完全触手可及。
The Democratic Party needs a net gain of just three seats to take control of the 435-member House of Representatives, a target that polling analysis suggests is well within reach.
对民主党而言，更艰巨的任务是从美国总统唐纳德·特朗普领导的共和党手中夺回参议院控制权。
The far more difficult task for Democrats will be wresting control of the Senate from U.S. President Donald Trump's Republican Party.
要实现51比49的参议院多数优势，民主党需要净增四个席位。这意味着必须至少翻转两个特朗普在2024年以两位数优势赢下的州，如俄亥俄州、爱荷华州、阿拉斯加州、得克萨斯州或堪萨斯州。以下是周二中期选举中值得关注的关键选战。
To achieve a 51-49 Senate majority, Democrats need a net gain of four seats. That requires flipping at least two states Trump won by double digits in 2024, such as Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Texas or Kansas. Here's a look at the pivotal races to watch in Tuesday's midterm elections.
参议院：缅因州 候选人（R）参议员苏珊·柯林斯 对阵 （D）特洛伊·杰克逊 柯林斯已占据该席位30年，尽管缅因州自1988年以来从未在总统大选中投给共和党候选人。
Senate: Maine Candidates (R) Sen. Susan Collins vs. (D) Troy Jackson Collins has held this seat for 30 years, even though Maine has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.
柯林斯之所以能连连胜选，是因为她说服了足够多的民主党选民，认为她能在华盛顿为缅因州争取实惠。最近，她将功劳揽在自己身上，称促成了特朗普决定豁免缅因州企业使用的某些加拿大产品，免于其于8月下旬征收的高达50%的惩罚性关税。
Collins has kept winning elections by persuading enough Democrats that she gets results for Maine in Washington. Most recently, she took credit for Trump's moves to exempt certain Canadian products used by Maine businesses from the crushing 50 per cent tariffs he'd imposed in late August.
问题在于，缅因州选民是会因柯林斯的共和党身份而惩罚她，还是会因她曾多次对抗特朗普而奖励她。
The question is whether Maine voters will punish Collins for being a Republican this time or reward her for the occasions when she stood up to Trump.
特朗普的关税在缅因州不得人心。一位共和党参议员可能为此付出代价 她的民主党对手是一位来自缅因州北部小镇的前伐木工转型政治家。在原提名人格雷厄姆·普拉特纳因被指控性侵前伴侣而退选后，杰克逊于7月才进入竞选。
Trump's tariffs are unpopular in Maine. A Republican senator may pay the price Her Democratic Party opponent is a former logger turned politician from a small town in northern Maine. Jackson entered the race only in July after the original nominee, Graham Platner, stepped down amid allegations he had sexually assaulted a former partner.
特朗普对加拿大的姿态导致跨境前往缅因州的加拿大人数量急剧下降。他对伊朗的战争引发取暖油价格暴涨74%，而该州约一半家庭依靠取暖油取暖。
Key issues Trump's posture toward Canada has led to a sharp drop in Canadians crossing the border to visit Maine. His war in Iran triggered a 74 per cent jump in the price of furnace oil, which roughly half of all households in the state use to heat their homes.
参议院：密歇根州候选人：（民主党）阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德 对 （共和党）迈克·罗杰斯。这一席位因现任民主党人加里·彼得斯决定不再寻求连任而空出。如果民主党守不住密歇根州，他们通往参议院多数席位的道路将变得艰难得多。
Senate: Michigan Candidates: (D) Abdul El-Sayed vs (R) Mike Rogers This seat was thrown open by incumbent Democrat Gary Peters' decision not to seek re-election. If Democrats can't hold Michigan, their path to a Senate majority becomes significantly tougher.
埃尔-赛义德是一名医生，也是坚定的进步派，出生于美国，父母是埃及移民。自8月赢得民主党提名以来，他一直是特朗普攻击的频繁目标。
El-Sayed is a medical doctor and staunch progressive who was born in the U.S. to Egyptian immigrant parents. Since winning the Democratic nomination in August, he has become a frequent target of Trump's attacks.
特朗普周日在边境城镇密歇根州休伦港的一场集会上对埃尔-赛义德发起了伊斯兰恐惧症式的攻击。总统称他为“圣战分子”，并警告说民主党获胜将带来“成群的圣战分子涌向我们的海岸，制造暴力和恐怖的噩梦”。“加拿大不是我们的敌人”：密歇根州共和党参议院候选人因贸易战与特朗普决裂。一位密歇根州民主党人希望在中选期间把加拿大列入选票议题。选民在听吗？
Trump launched an Islamophobic rant against El-Sayed during a rally Sunday in the border town of Port Huron, Mich. The president called him a "jihadist" and warned that a Democratic win would bring "hordes of jihadis to our shores, creating a nightmare of violence and terror." 'Canada is not our enemy': Michigan Republican Senate candidate breaks with Trump on trade war A Michigan Democrat wants to put Canada on the ballot during the midterms. Are voters listening?
罗杰斯曾是联邦调查局特工，在众议院任职14年，他试图在加美关系上与特朗普保持一定距离。他本月推出了一则新广告，在广告中他坐在一家体育酒吧里，面前放着一瓶拉巴特啤酒，说道：“我们现在需要结束这场关税战。”
Rogers, a former FBI agent who served in the House for 14 years, has attempted to put some distance between himself and Trump on Canada-U.S. relations. He launched a new ad this month in which he said, "We need to end this tariff war now," while sitting in a sports bar with a Labatt beer.
特朗普对加拿大产品的关税以及贸易谈判的破裂正在密歇根州的经济引擎——汽车行业引发动荡。根据全国纳税人联盟基金会最近的一项研究，密歇根州居民每户承担的关税成本高于其他任何州。
Trump's tariffs on Canadian products and the breakdown in trade talks are causing upheaval in the auto industry, Michigan's economic engine. Michigan residents have faced higher tariff costs per household than any other state, according to a recent study by the National Taxpayers Union Foundation.
参议院：俄亥俄州候选人：(R) 参议员乔恩·赫斯特德 对阵 (D) 谢罗德·布朗 赫斯特德于2025年获任命填补该席位，接替因成为特朗普副总统而离任的JD·万斯。此前，赫斯特德在州政坛拥有漫长从政生涯，自2001年起便担任民选职务。
Senate: Ohio Candidates: (R) Sen. Jon Husted vs (D) Sherrod Brown Husted was appointed to the seat in 2025 to replace JD Vance when Vance became Trump's vice-president. Before that, Husted had a lengthy career in state politics, holding elected office since 2001.
特朗普近期频繁评论现年59岁的赫斯特德的运动型体格，包括在俄亥俄州以外的活动场合。
Trump has recently commented frequently on the 59-year-old Husted's athletic physique, including at events outside of Ohio.
“我检查过他的屁股，”总统于10月17日在肯塔基州的一场集会上说。“然后我拍了拍他的肩膀，感觉像一块钢铁。我至今还在缓过劲来。” 布朗从政逾50年，在年满22岁前夕首次当选州议员。他担任俄亥俄州另一联邦参议员席位从2007年至2024年连任失利为止。
"I examined his ass," the president said at a rally in Kentucky on Oct. 17. "I then patted him on the shoulder, and it was like a piece of steel. I'm still recovering." Brown has been in politics for more than 50 years, first elected to the state legislature just before his 22nd birthday. He held Ohio's other U.S. Senate seat from 2007 until losing his re-election bid in 2024.
在俄亥俄州，美加贸易战引发愤怒与不确定性 数据中心反弹成特朗普共和党的难题 布朗长期主张实施针对性关税以保护美国制造业就业，但始终批评特朗普的全面关税——包括针对加拿大商品的关税——无效且具通胀性。 俄亥俄州常被视为风向州，因此该州选民最关心的议题反映了全国共鸣的焦点：生活成本上涨，以及特朗普对伊朗的战争及其关税政策是否应为此负责。 对数据中心蔓延的担忧也正成为可能影响全州选情的地方性议题。
In Ohio, Canada-U.S. trade war sparks anger and uncertainty Data centre backlash is a problem for Trump’s Republicans Brown has long advocated targeted tariffs to protect U.S. manufacturing jobs but has consistently criticized Trump's sweeping tariffs, including those on Canadian goods, as ineffective and inflationary Ohio is a often considered a bellwether state, so the issues top of mind for voters there mirror those resonating across the country: the rising cost of living and whether Trump's war against Iran and his tariffs are to blame. Concern over the spread of data centres is also emerging as a local issue that could affect the statewide race.
参议院：得克萨斯州候选人：(R) 肯·帕克斯顿 对阵 (D) 詹姆斯·塔拉里科 自1988年以来，民主党在得克萨斯州从未赢得过联邦参议员选举，那一年塔拉里科尚未出生。
Senate: Texas Candidates: (R) Ken Paxton vs (D) James Talarico Democrats haven't won a U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1988, the year before Talarico was born.
然而民调显示，特朗普本人拒绝支持现任参议员约翰·科宁，转而背书该州深陷丑闻的总检察长帕克斯顿为共和党候选人，此举让该席位面临风险。
Yet polls suggest Trump himself has put the seat at risk by rejecting incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and endorsing Paxton— the state's scandal-ridden attorney general — as the Republican candidate.
共和党在得州失利将成为全美最重大的中期选举对特朗普的否定。帕克斯顿似乎意识到了这份重担。
A Republican loss in Texas would be the most significant midterm repudiation of Trump in the country. Paxton seems to realize the burden.
“我说如果我们失去德克萨斯州，我们就失去了美国，这绝不是夸张，”他在10月19日于沃斯堡举行的集会上说道。
"I'm not exaggerating when I say if we lose Texas, we lose America," he told an Oct. 19 rally in Fort Worth.
特朗普备受争议的人选在德州参议员初选决选中获胜——民主党看到机会 分析 为什么共和党质疑德州民主党参议员竞选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科的男子气概 在竞选演说中，对手用极端言辞互相攻击。塔拉里科称帕克斯顿是“德州最腐败的政客”，而帕克斯顿则说，投票给塔拉里科就是“投票支持全国民主党人目前推行的每一个危险主张”。
Trump's scandal-plagued pick wins Texas Senate primary run-off — and Democrats see an opening Analysis Why Republicans are questioning the masculinity of Texas Democratic Senate contender James Talarico In their campaign stump speeches, the rivals describe each another in extreme terms. Talarico calls Paxton "the most corrupt politician in Texas," while Paxton says a vote for Talarico is "a vote for every dangerous idea that Democrats across the country are putting forward right now."
拉美裔社区约占德州合格选民的五分之一。他们在2024年总统大选中以创纪录数量支持特朗普，但移民与海关执法局（ICE）针对数千名在美国居住多年的非犯罪人员采取行动，可能会让许多这类选民转而支持塔拉里科。
The Latino community accounts for roughly one in every five eligible voters in Texas. It supported Trump in record numbers in the 2024 presidential election, but Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) targeting thousands of non-criminals who've been in the U.S. for years could swing many of those voters toward Talarico.
参议院：爱荷华州 候选人：（共和党）阿什利·辛森 对阵 （民主党）乔什·图雷克 双方都认为自己提名了有吸引力的候选人，角逐接替即将退休的共和党参议员乔尼·恩斯特的席位。
Senate: Iowa Candidates: (R) Ashley Hinson vs (D) Josh Turek Both parties believe they've nominated appealing candidates in the race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.
辛森在2020年赢得众议院席位前曾是电视记者和主播。图雷克是三届轮椅篮球残奥会选手，因父亲在越战中接触“橙剂”而天生患有脊柱裂。
Hinson was a TV reporter and anchor before winning a House seat in 2020. Turek is a three-time Paralympian in wheelchair basketball who was born with spina bifida after his father was exposed to Agent Orange in Vietnam.
两位候选人都试图说服爱荷华州选民，自己不受本党或党领导层束缚。辛森表示，她将在边境安全等问题上支持特朗普，但当她认为特朗普的政策对爱荷华州不利时，会站出来反对。
Both candidates have tried to persuade Iowa voters they aren't beholden to their party or its leadership. Hinson has said she will stand with Trump on issues such as border security but stand up to him when she believes his policies are wrong for Iowa.
爱荷华人如何看待特朗普关税、加拿大待遇问题，共和党争夺支持 图雷克在一个16年未曾送民主党人进入联邦参议院的州竞选，他自称“自豪地温和”，并表示自己与特朗普在许多问题上能达成一致。
How Iowans feel about Trump's tariffs, Canada's treatment as Republicans vie for support Turek, campaigning in a state that hasn't sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in 16 years, has described himself as "proudly a moderate" and said he and Trump could agree on many issues.
爱荷华州农民是重要的投票群体，他们依赖柴油为农业设备提供动力。数月来，特朗普一直淡化燃油价格飙升的担忧，而燃油价格飙升在很大程度上是由与伊朗的战争驱动的。在距选举日不到两周之际，特朗普宣布向农民提供80亿美元的一次性付款，以抵消柴油成本。
Farmers are a major voting bloc in Iowa and rely on diesel to fuel their equipment. For months, Trump brushed aside concerns about soaring fuel prices, driven largely by the war with Iran. Less than two weeks before election day, he announced $8 billion US in one-time payments to farmers to offset diesel costs.
其他值得关注的参议院选举中，北卡罗来纳州似乎是最有可能让民主党翻转的州。
Other notable Senate races North Carolina appears poised to be the mostly likely state for Democrats to flip.
现任共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯即将退休。2024年，特朗普仅以三个百分点之差赢得该州选举。民主党候选人罗伊·库珀曾担任北卡罗来纳州总检察长16年，以及两届州长。
Incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring, Trump only carried the state by three percentage points in 2024, and Democratic candidate Roy Cooper served 16 years as North Carolina's attorney general and two terms as governor.
他的对手迈克尔·瓦利是共和党全国委员会前主席，一位从未担任过公职的政治幕后人物。
His opponent Michael Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee, is a political backroomer who has never held elected office.
过去50年来，阿拉斯加仅选出一名民主党参议员。但共和党人显然对这次选举感到担忧。
Alaska has sent only one Democrat to the U.S. Senate in the past 50 years. But there are clear signs the Republicans are worried this time.
在特朗普的要求下，司法部提起诉讼，试图阻止该州认证如果共和党现任参议员丹·苏利尔落选的话的选举结果。表面理由是：选票上还有一名独立候选人丹尼尔·J·苏利尔。
At Trump's behest, the Department of Justice launched a lawsuit seeking to bar the state from certifying the election if Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. The ostensible reason: there is also an independent candidate on the ballot named Daniel J. Sullivan.
民主党候选人是玛丽·佩托拉，她可能与明尼苏达州民主党候选人佩吉·弗拉纳根一起成为首位当选美国参议员的印第安女性。
The Democratic candidate is Mary Peltola. She and Minnesota Democratic candidate Peggy Flanagan could become the first Indigenous women elected to the U.S. Senate.
自1932年以来，堪萨斯州没有民主党人赢得过美国参议院选举。
Kansas no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate election since 1932.
但民调显示，2026年这种情况可能发生改变。堪萨斯州的情况与爱荷华州类似：农民因由伊朗战争引发的燃油价格飙升以及关税导致的生产成本上升而感到不满。
Yet polls suggest that could change in 2026. Similar dynamics are at play in Kansas as in Iowa: farmers are upset by soaring diesel prices triggered by the Iran war and rising input costs resulting from tariffs.
共和党现任参议员罗杰·马歇尔对阵民主党亚当·汉密尔顿，后者是一家大型教会的创始牧师。
Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall is up against Democrat Adam Hamilton, founding pastor of a megachurch.
明尼阿波利斯ICE执法行动如何影响中期选举投票？10月11日众议院待观察的席位全部435个众议院席位都将面临选举。
How the Minneapolis ICE crackdown could sway the midterm vote October 11 Duration House races to watch All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election.
然而，包括《库克政治报告》、弗吉尼亚大学政治中心、Decision Desk HQ和270toWin在内的多家分析美国政治的网站，目前认为其中真正竞争激烈的席位不超过50个。
However, various websites that analyze U.S. politics — including the Cook Political Report the University of Virginia's Center for Politics Decision Desk HQ 270toWin— currently rate no more than 50 of them as truly competitive.
以下是民主党为夺取众议院控制权而重点争夺的几个共和党占有的关键选区。
Here are a few of the key Republican-held districts Democrats are targeting in their effort to take control of the House.
弗吉尼亚州第一选区：（共和党）罗布·惠特曼（现任）对阵（民主党）香农·泰勒。弗吉尼亚州投票于美国东部时间晚上7点结束，因此这场选举可能最早显示出当晚对共和党和民主党而言将是怎样一个夜晚。该选区从州首府里士满的郊区一直延伸到历史名城威廉斯堡，《华盛顿邮报》将其列为中期选举中“值得关注的风向标选战”之一。
Virginia 1st district: (R) Rob Wittman (incumbent) vs (D) Shannon Taylor Polls close in Virginia at 7 p.m. ET, so this race could provide one of the earliest indications of what kind of a night it will be for Republicans and Democrats. The district, which stretches from the suburbs of the state capital, Richmond, to the historic city of Williamsburg, was flagged by the Washington Post as one of the "bellwether races to watch" in the midterms.
宾夕法尼亚州第七选区：（共和党）瑞安·麦肯齐（现任）对阵（民主党）鲍勃·布鲁克斯。该选区以工人阶级城市阿伦敦为中心，自2006年以来已在民主党和共和党之间四次易手。拉丁裔占合格选民近四分之一。麦肯齐于2024年以一个百分点的优势赢得该席位。布鲁克斯是一名前消防员，从未担任过民选公职。
Pennsylvania 7th district: (R) Ryan Mackenzie (incumbent) vs (D) Bob Brooks This district, centred on the working-class city of Allentown, has swung between Democrats and Republicans four times since 2006. Latinos make up nearly one-quarter of eligible voters. Mackenzie won the seat in 2024 by a one-point margin. Brooks is a former firefighter who has never held elected office.
纽约州第十七选区：（共和党）迈克·劳勒（现任）对阵（民主党）凯特·康利。劳勒在这个哈德逊河谷选区向选民推销的卖点之一，是他所称的与特朗普“牢固的工作关系”，以此作为在华盛顿办成事情的方式。康利是西点军校毕业生，曾在伊拉克和阿富汗服役，这是她首次竞选公职。她在竞选广告中将军事背景置于最突出的位置。
New York 17th district: (R) Mike Lawler (incumbent) vs (D) Cait Conley Lawler's pitch to voters in this Hudson Valley district includes what he has called his "strong working relationship" with Trump as a way to get things done in Washington. Conley is a West Point graduate who served in Iraq and Afghanistan and is making her first run for office. She has put her military background front and centre in her campaign advertising.
得克萨斯州第15选区：(R) 现任议员莫妮卡·德拉克鲁斯 对阵 (D) 博比·普利多。民主党为这场南得州竞选招募了一位明星候选人：普利多曾两度获得拉丁格莱美奖。德拉克鲁斯试图将他描述为不严肃，声称选举“关乎的不是你想让谁在你侄女的……”。普利多抓住这句话，将竞选活动带到了，即女孩15岁生日的传统庆典。
Texas 15th district: (R) Monica De La Cruz (incumbent) vs (D) Bobby Pulido Democrats recruited a star candidate for this South Texas race: Pulido is a two-time Latin Grammy Award winner. De La Cruz tried to dismiss him as unserious by saying the election "isn't about who you want performing at your niece's " Pulido seized on the remark by taking his campaign to , the traditional celebration of a girl's 15th birthday.
俄亥俄州第7选区：(R) 现任议员马克斯·米勒 对阵 (D) 布赖恩·波因德克斯特。克利夫兰西郊的这个选区最初并非民主党的重点目标。情况在米勒的前妻——共和党参议员伯尼·莫雷诺的女儿——指控他实施身体虐待后发生了变化，指控包括向她泼滚烫开水和用枪指着她的头。米勒否认了这些指控。波因德克斯特是蓝领社区布鲁克帕克的一名钢铁工人和市议员。
Ohio 7th district: (R) Max Miller (incumbent) vs (D) Brian Poindexter This district in Cleveland's western suburbs wasn't originally a prime target for Democrats. That changed after Miller's ex-wife — the daughter of Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno — accused him of physical abuse, including throwing boiling water at her and holding a gun to her head. Miller has denied the allegations. Poindexter is an ironworker and city councillor in the working-class community of Brook Park.
密歇根州第10选区：(R) 迈克尔·布沙尔 对阵 (D) 克里斯蒂娜·海因斯。底特律北郊的这个选区之所以没有现任议员参选，是因为现任共和党议员约翰·詹姆斯正在竞选州长。布沙尔是一名陆军退伍军人，其竞选广告聚焦于严厉打击犯罪和保卫南部边境。
Michigan 10th district: (R) Michael Bouchard vs (D) Christina Hines This race in Detroit's northern suburbs is open because incumbent Republican John James is running for governor. Bouchard is an Army veteran whose ads have focused on being tough on crime and securing the southern border.
海因斯是一名前检察官，自夸曾让“数百名掠夺者、杀人犯和恋童癖者入狱”。
Hines is a former prosecutor who boasts of having put "hundreds of predators, murderers, and pedophiles in jail."