缅因州选民在本选举季情绪低落。仅有 12% 的人表示，与两年前相比，他们的家庭经济状况有所改善，而超过 6 成选民不认可唐纳德·特朗普总统的工作表现，其中包括 2 成共和党人。
Maine voters are in a negative mood this election season. Only 12% say their family is better off financially compared to two years ago, and more than 6 in 10 disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance, including 2 in 10 Republicans.
的受访者担心她投票时过于追随特朗普。相比之下，46% 的人担心民主党挑战者特洛伊·杰克逊过于自由派。
A Fox News survey of Maine likely voters finds that mood weighs on Republican Sen. Susan Collins, as 53% are concerned she votes with Trump too much. By contrast, 46% are concerned Democratic challenger Troy Jackson is too liberal.
尽管存在这些看法，竞选态势显示两位候选人打成平手，杰克逊和柯林斯的支持率均为 49%。所有调查访谈均在候选人 10 月 15 日的辩论之后完成。
Despite those views, the horse race shows the candidates tied, with Jackson and Collins at 49% apiece. All survey interviews were completed after the candidates’ Oct. 15 debate.
柯林斯约三十年前首次赢得该席位，正在寻求第六个任期。她是今年唯一一位来自特朗普在 2024 年大选中失利的州（落后 7 个百分点）的竞选连任共和党参议员。2020 年，柯林斯以近 9 个百分点的优势获胜。
Collins, who first won her seat about three decades ago, is seeking a sixth term. She’s the only GOP senator running for re-election this year from a state Trump lost in 2024 (by 7 points). In 2020, Collins won by nearly 9 points.
民主党人视缅因为夺取参议院控制权努力中的必争之席。当被问及对美国参议院控制权的偏好时，53% 的选民倾向于由民主党主导的参议院，而 45% 希望共和党继续掌控。虽然几乎所有杰克逊的支持者都希望民主党掌控参议院（96%），但柯林斯的支持者意见较为分歧：89% 希望由共和党主导参议院，但 9% 倾向于民主党领导。
Democrats view Maine as a must-win seat in their effort to take control of the Senate. When voters are asked about control of the U.S. Senate, 53% prefer a Democratic-led Senate vs. 45% who want the Republicans to remain in charge. While almost all Jackson supporters want Democratic control (96%), Collins supporters are more divided: 89% want a GOP-led chamber, but 9% prefer Democratic leadership.
柯林斯需要克服左翼的高涨热情，因为表示对选举“极其感兴趣”的民主党人（79%）远多于共和党人（61%），这解释了为什么杰克逊在该群体中领先 16 个百分点。他在表示“肯定会投票”的人群中领先 4 个百分点，并且在已投邮寄选票或提前投票的五分之一缅因州选民中以 40 个百分点的巨大优势领先。另一方面，仅过半数的选民计划在选举日当天投票，他们支持柯林斯的优势为 12 个百分点。
Collins will need to overcome the energy on the left, as far more Democrats (79%) than Republicans (61%) say they are extremely interested in the election, which explains why Jackson is ahead by 16 points among that group. He’s up by 4 points among those who say they are "certain" to vote, and also carries the one in five Mainers who have already cast a ballot by a decisive 40 points. On the other hand, a slim majority plans to vote on Election Day, and they favor Collins by 12 points.
“柯林斯并不陌生于跑在本党前面，但民主党拥有18个百分点的热情优势，”民主党民调公司Beacon Research的米凯拉·林德说，该公司与共和党人达伦·肖共同进行福克斯新闻民调。“特朗普的工作评分低25个百分点，且多数人强烈不认可他。如果杰克逊能将这种势头延伸到基本盘之外并冲过终点线，他就有机会。”对总统表现的看法是缅因州共和党候选人的一个问题。目前，37%的选民认可特朗普作为总统的工作表现，而62%不认可，其中54%强烈不认可。
"Collins is no stranger to outrunning her party, but Democrats hold an 18-point enthusiasm advantage," says Mikaela Linder of Beacon Research, a Democratic polling firm that conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican Daron Shaw. "Trump’s job rating is 25 points underwater, and a majority strongly disapproves of him. Jackson has an opening if he can carry that momentum beyond his base and across the finish line." Views of the president’s performance are a problem for GOP candidates in Maine. Currently, 37% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 62% disapprove, including 54% who strongly disapprove.
两位候选人的个人声望度均为负值。杰克逊的评价负2个百分点（47%有利，49%不利），柯林斯负4个百分点（47%-51%）。
The candidates’ personal favorability ratings are both underwater. Views of Jackson are negative by 2 points (47% favorable, 49% unfavorable), and by 4 points for Collins (47%-51%).
党派投票选择在关键群体中存在明显差异。45岁以下选民支持柯林斯，领先6个百分点；45岁及以上选民偏向杰克逊，领先3个百分点。女性支持杰克逊，领先5个百分点；男性支持柯林斯，领先4个百分点。
Partisan vote choice varies distinctly across key groups. Voters under 45 favor Collins by 6 points, while those ages 45 and older prefer Jackson by 3. Women support Jackson by 5 points, while men back Collins by 4.
最尖锐的分歧在于教育程度：拥有大学学历的缅因州人支持杰克逊，领先23个百分点；而柯林斯在没有学历的人群中领先16个百分点。
The sharpest divide is education: Mainers with a college degree pick Jackson by 23 points, while Collins leads among those without a degree by 16.
柯林斯在居住在农村地区的选民中领先7个百分点，而杰克逊是人数较少的郊区选民的选择，领先18个百分点。
Collins is ahead among those living in rural areas by 7 points, while Jackson is the pick of the smaller number of suburban voters by 18 points.
相比之下，在2020年，柯林斯在居住在农村地区的选民和没有大学学历的选民中均以18个百分点的优势获胜。
For comparison, in 2020, Collins won both the voters living in rural areas and those without a college degree by 18 points each.
“共和党人似乎在本周期难以应对白人农村选民，缅因州也不例外，”肖说。“共和党候选人迫切需要这些选民出来投票，并需要类似65比35的得票率来克服民主党在城市地区的优势。”党派忠诚度大致相当，双方90%的铁杆支持者都支持自家候选人，而规模较小的独立选民群体支持柯林斯，领先13个百分点。杰克逊（92%）和柯林斯（90%）的支持者都有很高的投票确定性。
"Republicans appear to be struggling with White rural voters this cycle, and Maine is no exception," Shaw said. "GOP candidates desperately need these voters to show up, and need something like a 65-35 vote to overcome Democratic strength in urban areas." Party loyalty is roughly even as 9 in 10 of each candidate’s party faithful back them, and the small subgroup of independents favors Collins by 13 points. Both Jackson (92%) and Collins (90%) supporters have a high degree of vote certainty.
在缅因州州长选举中，民主党人汉娜·平格里以49%对39%领先共和党人鲍比·查尔斯10个百分点，独立候选人里克·本内特获得9%。
In Maine’s gubernatorial race, Democrat Hannah Pingree leads Republican Bobby Charles by 10 points, 49% to 39%, while independent candidate Rick Bennett takes 9%.
与杰克逊不同，杰克逊的联盟几乎一致支持平格里（仅有8%背离），而近五分之一的柯林斯支持者（19%）则转向本内特（11%）或平格里（8%）。
Unlike Jackson, whose coalition backs Pingree almost unanimously (only 8% defect), nearly one in five Collins supporters (19%) peel off to either Bennett (11%) or Pingree (8%).
本次福克斯新闻民调于2026年10月16日至20日由灯塔研究（民主党）和肖公司研究（共和党）共同指导进行，访谈对象为从全州选民档案中随机抽取的1,689名缅因州登记选民样本。受访者通过固定电话（226人）和手机（1,035人）与现场采访员通话，或在收到短信后在线完成调查（428人）。基于登记选民样本的结果抽样误差为±2个百分点，针对1,514名可能投票者的子样本误差为±2.5个百分点。
Conducted October 16-20, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,689 Maine registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (226) and cellphones (1,035) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (428). Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2 percentage points and for the subsample of 1,514 likely voters it is ±2.5 percentage points.
子群体结果的抽样误差更高。除抽样误差外，问题措辞和顺序也可能影响结果。制定加权目标的来源包括最新的美国社区调查、福克斯新闻选民分析以及选民档案数据。加权通常应用于年龄、种族、教育和地区变量，以确保受访者的人口特征能够代表登记选民总体。可能投票者的判定基于一种概率统计模型，依赖于过去投票记录、对本次选举的关注度、投票意向、年龄、教育、种族、族裔和婚姻状况。仅当子样本规模至少为N=100时，才会显示子群体结果。
Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, intention to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity, and marital status. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.