BANGOR, Maine — Republican Sen. Susan Collins is warning that Maine could lose crucial federal funding if voters replace her with Democrat Troy Jackson, as a new poll shows the candidates statistically tied ahead of their final debate Thursday.

Jackson, a one-time logger and former Maine Senate president, edged Collins 49%-47% in a Suffolk University poll conducted Oct. 8-11 and released on the eve of the final debate. Jackson's two-point edge over Collins among likely voters was well within the survey's margin of error, and the poll was the latest to indicate an extremely close contest.

The face-off between Collins and Jackson in the blue-leaning Northern New England state is a top flip opportunity for the Democrats as they try to win back the Senate majority from the Republicans in the midterm elections.

The Fox News Power Rankings rate the race in Maine as a toss up, as do leading nonpartisan political handicappers the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. CAN A FORMER NFL SIDELINE REPORTER HELP REPUBLICANS FLIP A SENATE SEAT IN BLUE-LEANING MINNESOTA?

"Maine voters lose out big time if Troy Jackson were to be elected," Collins said in an exclusive Fox News Digital interview on Wednesday.

Collins, who is running for a sixth six-year term in the Senate, has showcased her nearly three decades of Senate experience and her leadership role as Senate Appropriations Committee chair as integral to her ability "to get so much done for the people of Maine." She warned that if Jackson replaced her, "he'll be 100 in seniority, and all of that essential federal funding targeted for the state of Maine, virtually all of it will go away."

Jackson has argued that Collins has not used her Senate power to protect Maine families from soaring energy, food, and housing costs. "Sen. Collins has told us how powerful she is," Jackson said during their first debate. "But power means nothing if you won't use it when the people may need it." Jackson and Democrats have also repeatedly aimed to anchor Collins to President Donald Trump, whose approval ratings in Maine and across the country are cratering ahead of the midterms.

"That's the choice on this stage — a senator who helps Donald Trump hurt Maine then tells us how concerned she is, or somebody who will stand up against him before another family in Maine has to pay the price," Jackson said during Tuesday's third debate.

DEMS SEE NEW CHANCES TO FLIP SENATE SEATS BUT GOP'S MASSIVE CASH ADVANTAGE AN OBSTACLE Collins is known as a moderate Republican who at times has voted against the president. But Jackson and Democrats are targeting the senator over her comments that she didn't regret her 2018 vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, whose crucial vote four years later helped overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade abortion ruling.

And following the fatal shooting in Maine this summer involving Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents, Democrats heavily criticized Collins for her support for ICE funding.

But Collins has broken with Trump numerous times in recent months, criticizing his tariff war with neighboring Canada and voting against Attorney General Todd Blanche's confirmation.

"Troy and Chuck Schumer and their allies run ads saying that I'm somehow a puppet of the president. Believe me, that would come as a huge surprise to President Trump," Collins told Fox News Digital.

Collins noted, "I opposed the deal that he made with Vladimir Putin to get a small amount of diesel, and in return lift the sanctions that we just passed into law, and the president is not following the law. I signed a bipartisan letter that urges the president to reconsider that. I opposed the president's signature legislative accomplishment, the One Big Beautiful Bill, because it contained cuts in Medicaid that...

I know would be harmful to Maine." DEMOCRATS THINK A BLUE WAVE IS BUILDING - HERE ARE THREE FACTORS THAT COULD STOP IT The senator was interviewed in Bangor after landing the endorsement of the Maine chapter of the Fraternal Order of Police.

"I've secured funding for projects throughout Maine, $46 million to help our police and sheriff's departments upgrade their equipment, facilities, and communications," Collins told Fox News Digital.

And she took aim at Jackson, who won a special nominating convention in late July to fill the party's Senate nomination, which was left vacant after primary winner Graham Platner ended his campaign following an explosive report containing an allegation of rape from a woman he previously dated. Platner denied the report but dropped out. Jackson, who earlier this year unsuccessfully ran for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, had campaigned alongside Platner during the primary campaign.

"Troy was Graham Platner's biggest supporter and stayed with him to the very end of Graham's campaign, and Graham repeatedly denigrated law enforcement," Collins said. "I never heard Troy publicly condemn those disrespectful and horrible comments."

Collins added, "During his gubernatorial campaign, Troy was endorsed and welcomed the endorsement of the Democratic Socialists of America. One of the key parts of the DSA platform is to defund the police."

The Jackson campaign, responding, pointed out that "Jackson is not a Democratic Socialist" and has repeatedly said he does not support defunding the police. The campaign added that Jackson called on Platner to drop out and "has been clear he will not accept a Platner endorsement." "Susan Collins is lying about Troy’s record because she knows that Mainers are ready to retire her after she’s voted with Donald Trump 96% of the time to cut their healthcare, confirmed Brett Kavanaugh who overturned Roe v. Wade, enabled Trump’s war in Iran that’s raising energy costs, and failed to stop his reckless tariffs that are causing costs to skyrocket," the Jackson campaign told Fox News Digital.

SIGN UP TO GET THE POLITICS NEWSLETTER But Collins disputed the 96% figure, saying that it came from a study that only covered a third of her Senate votes.

"A study that looked at 90% of the votes showed that I supported the president 72% of the time," she added. "The bottom line is, I support him when I think he's right. I don't when I think he's wrong." Collins, who is the only GOP senator seeking re-election in a state Trump lost in the 2024 election, has a history of surviving Democratic efforts to unseat her.

Six years ago, she trailed Democratic challenger Sara Gideon, the then-Maine House speaker, but the senator ended up winning re-election by nearly nine points while former President Joe Biden carried the state by a similar margin.