约翰·E·苏努努的参议院竞选，若非卡玛拉·哈里斯的中期选举，本可扭转乾坤。
There’s nothing wrong with John E. Sununu’s Senate campaign that a Kamala Harris midterm election wouldn’t have fixed.
事实上，这位新罕布什尔州共和党人此前曾获胜，那是在2002年，也是本世纪共和党在该州赢得的三场参议院选举中的一场。如果这位前副总统两年前进入白宫，或许还能再来一次。苏努努拥有响亮的家族名字——他的父亲和哥哥都曾担任花岗岩州州长——他来自共和党里仍在紫色摇摆州占据主导地位的罗纳德·里根派系。但哈里斯输了，在一场主要由选民对总统唐纳德·特朗普的深层不满所驱动的中期选举中，苏努努的所有政治优势——包括他的家族王朝——都毫无意义。
Indeed, the New Hampshire Republican has won before, in 2002, marking just one of three Senate contests Republicans won in the state this century. And if the former vice president had advanced to the White House two years ago, an encore might be on tap. Sununu has a famous family name — both his father and brother were Granite State governors — and he hails from the Ronald Reagan wing of the GOP that still predominates in this purple battleground. But Harris lost, and none of Sununu’s political advantages — his family dynasty included — count for bupkis in a midterm campaign driven primarily by voters' deep frustration with President Donald Trump.
这是我在选举日不到两周前，从新罕布什尔州的共和党选民（也是苏努努的支持者）那里听到的。对于希望新罕布什尔州原本竞争激烈的参议院选举能抵消一系列红州可能带来的损失，并保住摇摇欲坠的多数席位的共和党来说，这是一个令人担忧的信号。
That’s what I heard from Republican voters (and Sununu supporters) in New Hampshire less than two weeks before Election Day. It’s a troubling sign for a party hoping the initially competitive New Hampshire Senate race might offset potential losses in a raft of red states and preserve their teetering majority.
“人们对通胀率和伊朗战争感到不满，”78岁的退休人员约翰·沙利文在格陵兰乡村俱乐部对我的一家乡村俱乐部说，该俱乐部靠近朴茨茅斯，苏努努的民主党对手、众议员克里斯·帕帕斯计划在那里出现。沙利文强调他对苏努努感到满意，并计划在11月3日为他投票，但他仍承认对特朗普感到失望。“我总体上对迄今为止的表现感到不满意，”他说。
“People are not happy with the rate of inflation [and] the Iran war,” retiree John Sullivan, 78, told me at a country club in Greenland, near Portsmouth, where Sununu’s Democratic opponent, Representative Chris Pappas, was set to appear. Emphasizing his satisfaction with Sununu and plans to pull the lever for him on Nov. 3, Sullivan nevertheless conceded his disappointment with Trump. “I am generally unhappy with the performance that has gone [on] so far,” he said.
“我原以为会比现在更好。”只要知道这些，就足以理解为什么帕帕斯有望获胜，他在RealClearPolitics民调平均值中以49.5%对43%领先苏努努。但如果你非要知道更多，根据圣安塞尔姆学院10月下旬的数据，特朗普在花岗岩州的工作支持率为38%，该学院的民调在此地准确把握政治情绪的记录良好。民主党在衡量选民希望哪个政党控制国会的普遍投票中也以52%对43%领先，并且在自称“极有可能”投票的选民中，民主党比共和党领先6个百分点。
“I thought it would be better than it is.”That’s all you need to know to understand why Pappas is poised for victory, with a 49.5% to 43% lead over Sununu in the RealClearPolitics polling average. But if you must know more, Trump’s job approval rating is 38% in the Granite State, according to late October data from a St. Anselm College survey that has a good track record of pegging political sentiment here. Democrats also lead the generic ballot gauging which party voters would prefer be in control of Congress 52% to 43%, and they hold a 6-percentage-point edge over Republicans among voters who say they are “extremely likely” to vote.
46岁的帕帕斯是一名普通的民主党人，在担任众议员近四个任期期间，他只有偶尔违背过本党。但他正是新罕布什尔州选民喜爱派往参议院的那种政治家：温和且专业。并且，与另外两位在摇摆州有望成功的民主党人——佐治亚州参议员乔恩·奥索夫和北卡罗来纳州前州长罗伊·库珀——一样，帕帕斯足够聪明，专注于选民的首要优先事项，并让特朗普的不受欢迎为他完成肮脏的工作。这一点在帕帕斯在格陵兰的一个扶轮社午餐会上发表讲话后进行的平淡无奇的问答环节中显而易见。
Pappas, 46, is a generic Democrat who has only occasionally bucked his party in the House of Representatives over the course of nearly four terms. But he’s the sort of politician New Hampshire voters love to send to the Senate: mild-mannered and wonkish. And like two other Democrats poised for success in swingy states — Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia and former Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina — Pappas has been smart enough to focus on voters’ top priorities and let Trump’s unpopularity do the dirty work for him. That much was evident during the uneventful Q&A that followed his remarks to a rotary club luncheon in Greenland.
帕帕斯事后告诉我，2026年的竞选不仅仅关乎特朗普。选民关注的是广义的可负担性：住房、医疗、托儿和能源成本，在新英格兰，这意味着冬季家庭取暖油的高昂价格。“这是我与选民交谈时大多数对话的开头和结尾，”这位国会议员说。但他承认，若非总统，民主党人就不会濒临重新夺回国会权力的边缘。
Pappas told me afterward that the 2026 campaign is about more than Trump. Voters are concerned about affordability writ large: housing, healthcare, childcare and energy costs, which in New England means the high price of home heating oil during winter. “That’s the beginning and end of most conversations that I’m having with voters,” the congressman said. But he conceded that Democrats wouldn’t be on the precipice of reclaiming power on Capitol Hill if not for the president.
“人们明确反对本届政府日复一日所做的事，我认为这是选举的背景，”帕帕斯解释道，这是他在曼彻斯特与哈里斯一同竞选的两天前。（桑努竞选团队在我的新罕布什尔州之行结束后才回应我的采访请求。）人们可能会倾向于得出结论，新罕布什尔州并非真正的摇摆州。毕竟，自2000年以来，民主党在这里没有输过一场总统选举，并在同期的大多数参议院竞选中获胜。
“People are decidedly opposed to what this administration is doing on a day-to-day basis, and I think it’s the backdrop of the election,” Pappas explained, two days before campaigning alongside Harris in Manchester. (The Sununu campaign did not respond to my requests for time with the candidate until after I had departed New Hampshire.) It might be tempting to conclude New Hampshire isn’t really a swing state. After all, Democrats haven’t lost a presidential election here since 2000 and have prevailed in most Senate campaigns during the same period.
其中包括现任参议员珍妮·沙欣在2008年击败桑努。但这一结论是错误的。自2016年以来，共和党一直控制着州长官邸（以及常常控制着州议会）。而且由于该职位每两年选举一次，共和党已经取得了五连胜——随着预计州长凯莉·艾奥特连任，很快将是六连胜。
That includes outgoing Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s ouster of Sununu in 2008. But that conclusion would be wrong. The GOP has controlled the governor’s mansion (and often the legislature) since 2016. And because that office is up for election every two years, Republicans have five consecutive victories — soon to be six with the expected reelection of Governor Kelly Ayotte.
所以，向共和党人致敬，他们成功说服62岁的桑努加入一场几乎可以肯定对共和党来说比在隆冬攀登华盛顿山更艰难的中期选举周期。
So, hats off to the Republicans for convincing Sununu, 62, to jump into a midterm cycle virtually guaranteed to be tougher for a Republican than hiking Mount Washington in the dead of winter.
苏努努的父亲约翰·H·苏努努是一位备受怀念的前州长和前白宫幕僚长。他的兄弟克里斯·苏努努是一位受欢迎的前州长，2025年在任职八年后离任，并拒绝了共和党努力招募他参选参议员的尝试。但面对选民对第二任期总统的反弹，苏努努的家族名字只能起到有限的作用，这种反弹源于对高生活成本和持续进行的伊朗战争的焦虑。这对苏努努来说应该很熟悉。
Sununu’s father, John H. Sununu, is a fondly thought of former governor and ex-White House chief of staff. His brother, Chris Sununu, is a popular former governor who left office in 2025 after eight years and has spurned GOP efforts to recruit him to run for Senate. But there’s only so much Sununu’s family name can accomplish in the face of a voter backlash against a second-term president driven by anxiety over the high cost of living and the ongoing war in Iran. It ought to ring rather familiar to Sununu.
他18年前在乔治·W·布什总统第二任期末期连任失败，当时正值伊拉克战争和大衰退初期。苏努努当然正在尽力缓解局面。
He lost reelection 18 years ago, at the tail end of President George W Bush’s second term, amid the Iraq War and the onset of the Great Recession. Sununu is certainly doing his best to mitigate.
“克里斯·帕帕斯的说法是，我是特朗普总统失散多年的儿子。我甚至从未见过此人，”苏努努在一档电视节目中说。“当总统的政策对新罕布什尔州不利时，我会反对，就像我反对伊朗战争和与加拿大的贸易战一样。这就是新罕布什尔州的独立精神。”这位共和党人不得不如此高声呐喊，凸显了他正努力跨越的几乎不可能逾越的障碍，不过，他正面对主要挑战而非假装它不存在，这一点值得肯定——与他党内的许多人不同。
“The way Chris Pappas tells it, I’m President Trump’s long-lost son. I’ve never even met the man,” Sununu says in a television . “When the president’s policies are bad for New Hampshire, I’ll oppose them, just like I oppose the war in Iran and the trade war with Canada. That’s New Hampshire independent." That the Republican has to bang the drum this loud reveals the near-impossible hurdle he’s laboring to leap, although credit where credit is due for addressing his main challenge head-on rather than pretending it doesn’t exist — like many others in his party.
但如果角色互换，帕帕斯是饱受严重政治逆风冲击的候选人，并在竞选广告中声称自己“甚至从未见过”哈里斯，有人认为这会奏效吗？
But if roles were reversed and Pappas was the candidate buffeted by severe political headwinds and airing a campaign spot claiming he’d “never even met” Harris, does anyone think it would work?