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美联社决策笔记:选举日新罕布什尔州有何看点AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New Hampshire on Election Day

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新罕布什尔州共和党参议员候选人约翰·E·苏努努(右)与民主党参议员候选人、新罕布什尔州民主党众议员克里斯·帕帕斯于2026年10月28日星期三在新罕布什尔州曼彻斯特举行辩论。(美联社照片/丽巴·萨尔达尼亚)Republican Senate candidate John E. Sununu, right, debates Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Chris Pappas, D-N.H., Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026, in Manchester, N.H. (AP Photo/Reba Saldanha)

新罕布什尔州选民正在决定,是将一名共和党人还是民主党人送入参议院——该席位由民主党人占据已达十五年之久。

New Hampshire voters are deciding whether to elevate a Republican or a Democrat to a Senate seat that's been held by a Democrat for a decade and a half.

卡米尔·贝克 他们还将选出两名众议员,而州长竞选将有助于决定共和党人能否维持对该州州长职位及州议会两院的“三连胜”掌控。

CAMILLE BAKER They’re also choosing two House members, and the governor’s race will help determine whether Republicans maintain their “trifecta” hold on the governorship and both chambers of the Legislature.

这个被称为“不自由毋宁死”的州,其选民以思想独立著称,也是可能决定民主党人能否在中期选举中从共和党人手中夺回美国参议院控制权的几个州之一。该席位目前空缺,此前民主党参议员珍妮·沙欣于2025年宣布不再寻求第四个任期。她于2008年首次当选参议员,此前曾担任州长。

The “Live Free or Die” state, where voters are known for their independent-mindedness, is one of several states that could determine whether Democrats will wrest control of the U.S. Senate from Republicans in the midterm elections. The seat is open after Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who was first elected to the Senate in 2008 and previously served as governor, announced in 2025 that she would not seek a fourth term. Among those vying to take over Shaheen’s seat is Chris Pappas, a Democrat who has represented New Hampshire in the U.S. House since 2019.

角逐接替沙欣席位的人选包括克里斯·帕帕斯,这位民主党人自2019年以来一直代表新罕布什尔州在美国众议院任职。如果当选,帕帕斯将成为美国首位公开同性恋身份的参议员。他的对手是约翰·E·苏努努,这位共和党人曾在国会两院任职,并在2008年选举中被沙欣赶出参议院。苏努努在这场竞选中可能受益于姓名知名度,因为他出身于一个显赫的政治家族;他的父亲和兄弟都曾担任该州州长。

Pappas would be the first openly gay U.S. senator if elected. He is opposed by John E. Sununu, a Republican who has served in both chambers of Congress and was ousted from the Senate by Shaheen in the 2008 election. Sununu may benefit from name recognition in the race as he is from a storied political family; his father and brother were governors of the state. Pappas has far outraised Sununu, amassing a war chest of over $23.7 million compared with the Republican’s $5.7 million as of mid-October.

截至10月中旬,帕帕斯的筹款远超苏努努,竞选资金超过2370万美元,而这位共和党人为570万美元。但数千万美元的外部支出涌入这场竞选,外部团体用于反对帕帕斯的支出多于反对苏努努的支出。近年来该州住房成本迅速上涨,两位候选人都将生活负担能力作为竞选的核心议题。

But tens of millions more in outside spending have poured into the race, with outside groups spending more to oppose Pappas than Sununu. Housing costs have risen rapidly in the state in recent years, and both candidates have made affordability a central issue of their campaigns. Both candidates have also distanced themselves from their own political parties.

两位候选人也都在与各自的政党保持距离。尽管唐纳德·特朗普总统在2月份背书了苏努努,但这位共和党候选人近几周来一直试图与总统拉开距离——总统不断下滑的支持率在一场日益像是针对总统职位本身进行公投的选战中,可能成为一个拖累。帕帕斯是一位温和派民主党人,在初选中击败了一名进步派挑战者,他同样试图强调自己独立于该党一些建制派人物,转而突出自己对独立选民的吸引力。

While President Donald Trump endorsed Sununu in February, the Republican candidate has sought to distance himself in recent weeks from the president, whose plunging approval rating could represent a liability in a race that increasingly appears to be a referendum on the presidency. Pappas, a moderate Democrat who defeated a progressive challenger in the primary, has similarly tried to emphasize his independence from some of the party’s establishment figures, highlighting instead his appeal to independent voters. In New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, Stefany Shaheen, a Democrat and the outgoing senator’s daughter, is facing Republican Anthony DiLorenzo to occupy Pappas’ seat.

在新罕布什尔州第一国会选区,民主党人、即将卸任参议员的女儿斯特凡妮·沙欣正与共和党人安东尼·迪洛伦佐角逐,以接替帕帕斯的席位。在第二选区,现任民主党众议员玛吉·古德兰德正与共和党人莉莉·唐·威廉姆斯再次对决,后者是古德兰德2024年的共和党对手。自2017年以来,新罕布什尔州在国会的所有席位一直由民主党人占据,而且该州自2004年以来在每次总统选举中都投票支持民主党人。

In the 2nd District, incumbent Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander is in a rematch against Republican Lily Tang Williams, who was Goodlander’s GOP opponent in 2024. All of New Hampshire’s seats in Congress have been occupied by Democrats since 2017, and the state has voted for a Democrat in every presidential race since 2004. In a reflection of New Hampshire voters’ willingness to split their votes between parties, however, the state has had a Republican governor since 2017.

然而,这也反映出新罕布什尔州选民愿意在政党之间分裂投票——该州自2017年以来一直由共和党人担任州长。新罕布什尔州是全美仅有的两个州长任期为两年的州之一,现任州长、共和党人凯利·阿约特于2024年首次当选该职位,目前正与民主党人辛德·沃明顿争夺这一席位,后者曾是该州行政委员会的成员。

New Hampshire is one of only two states whose governors serve two-year terms, and incumbent Gov. Kelly Ayotte, a Republican who was first elected to the seat in 2024, is defending her seat against Democrat Cinde Warmington, a former member of the state’s Executive Council. Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team

以下是有关此次选举的一些关键事实,以及美联社决策团队将在计票过程中监测的数据点:投票站何时关闭?

will monitor as the votes are tallied:

该州不同地区的投票站关闭时间不同,分别为晚上7点、7点30分和8点。在一些只有少数居民的城镇,投票站在选举日午夜开放,几分钟后待所有选民投完票即关闭。选票上有哪些内容?

When do polls close? Polls close at different times in different parts of the state, at 7 p.m., 7:30 p.m. and 8 p.m. In some towns with only a handful of residents, polls open at midnight on Election Day and close a few minutes later once all voters have cast a ballot.

美联社将提供美国参议院、州长、美国众议院、一项全州公投议案、州参议院、州众议院以及执行委员会的选举结果,并宣布获胜者。上一次中期选举有多少人投票?

What’s on the ballot? The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in races for U.S. Senate, governor, U.S. House, a statewide ballot measure, state Senate, state House and Executive Council.

2022年新罕布什尔州美国参议院选举共投出超过62万张选票。有多少选票是通过缺席选票投出的?

How many people voted in the last midterm election? Over 620,000 votes were cast in the 2022 race for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire.

在新罕布什尔州2022年选举中,所有选票中约有10%是提前投票或通过缺席选票投出的。

How much of the vote is cast by absentee ballot?

新罕布什尔州最新的提前投票总数可在美联社的提前投票追踪器中查看。提前投票和缺席选票何时公布?

About 10% of all ballots cast in New Hampshire’s 2022 election were cast early or by absentee ballot. The latest advance vote totals for New Hampshire can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker When are early and absentee votes released?

新罕布什尔州的选举由镇和市一级负责管理。全州共有238个独立辖区负责管理地方选举,它们在公布结果的方式和时间上各不相同。该州大多数较大的辖区会在当晚第一次更新投票结果时,公布其全部或几乎全部的缺席选票和选举日现场投票结果。其他较大辖区则会在整个晚上陆续公布部分结果。计票通常需要多长时间?

New Hampshire runs elections at the town and city level. There are 238 separate jurisdictions administering local elections, and they vary in terms of how and when they release results. Most of the larger jurisdictions in the state release all or nearly all their results from both absentee and in-person Election Day voting in their first vote updates of the night. Other large jurisdictions release a mix of results throughout the night. How long does vote-counting usually take?

在2024年总统选举中,该州在选举日晚上10点12分达到50%的选票报告率,在凌晨1点42分达到90%的选票报告率。美联社何时宣布获胜者?

In the 2024 presidential election, the state reached 50% of votes reporting at 10:12 p.m. on Election Day and 90% of votes reporting at 1:42 a.m. When will the AP declare a winner?

美联社不做预测,只有在确定不存在落后候选人能够缩小差距的任何情形时,才会宣布获胜者。如果一场选举尚未被宣布结果,美联社将继续报道任何有新闻价值的新进展,例如候选人承认败选或宣布获胜。在此过程中,美联社将明确说明其尚未宣布获胜者,并解释原因。重新计票如何进行?

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why. How do recounts work?

新罕布什尔州没有自动重新计票,但如果差距在20%或以下,候选人可以自行请求并支付重新计票费用。美联社在可能进行重新计票的选举中,如果能够确定领先优势过大,足以使重新计票或法律挑战无法改变结果,则可以宣布胜者。

There are no automatic recounts in New Hampshire, but a candidate may request and pay for a recount if the margin is 20% or less. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

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