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风投将从Anthropic的IPO中赚取数十亿美元,但亚马逊将赚得(多得多)更多VCs will make billions on Anthropic’s IPO, but Amazon is set to make much (much) more

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Anthropic的标志显示在一部智能手机的屏幕上,背景中带有该公司的品牌标识。The Anthropic logo is displayed on the screen of a smartphone with the company's branding in the background.

许多投资者有望在 Anthropic 上市时大赚一笔。包括 Menlo Ventures、Sequoia、Sound Ventures 和 Spark Capital 在内的多家机构持有的股份预计将带来数十亿美元回报。

Many investors stand to win big when Anthropic goes public. Stakes held by firms including Menlo Ventures, Sequoia, Sound Ventures, and Spark Capital are expected to return billions.

然而,根据 Anthropic 的 S-1 文件,上述任何一家风投机构的持股均未达到 5%,即列入主要股东表的门槛。这极不寻常。在典型的科技公司 IPO 中,领投的风投机构通常持有其支持的初创公司两位数百分比的股份。原因在于 Anthropic 的体量。按其 9650 亿美元的私有估值计算,1% 的股份价值近 100 亿美元,因此,例如 Menlo 约 140 亿美元的持仓仅占公司约 1.5%,据彭博社近期报道的数据。

Yet according to Anthropic’s S-1, none of those VC firms owns 5%, the threshold for being included in the principal stockholders’ table. That’s highly unusual. In a typical tech IPO, lead venture investors hold double-digit-percentage stakes in the startups they backed. The reason is Anthropic’s size. At its $965 billion private valuation, a 1% stake is worth nearly $10 billion, so, for example, Menlo’s roughly $14 billion position is only about 1.5% of the company, according to recently reported Bloomberg figures.

虽然风投机构缺乏大额百分比股份,但 Anthropic 向战略合作伙伴出售了大量股份,这些公司同时也是其业务合作伙伴。事实上,亚马逊很可能是此次 IPO 最大的单一财务受益者。

While the venture firms may lack sizable percentage stakes, Anthropic sold large stakes to strategic partners, companies that are also its business partners. Indeed, Amazon is likely the single largest financial beneficiary of the IPO.

亚马逊于 2023 年首次支持 Anthropic,承诺向这家 AI 公司投资最多 40 亿美元。此后,亚马逊又向 Anthropic 投入了数十亿美元。亚马逊并未直接获取股份,而是将大部分投资构建为可转换票据,这是一种在 IPO 或出售时转为股份的债务工具。

Amazon first backed Anthropic in 2023 with a commitment to invest up to $4 billion in the AI company. Since then, Amazon has poured billions more into Anthropic. Instead of taking stock upfront, Amazon structured much of its investment as convertible notes, a type of debt that converts into shares upon an IPO or sale.

根据 S-1 文件,截至 6 月 30 日,亚马逊持有本金余额为 62 亿美元的可转换票据。这构成了 Anthropic 的全部债务负担。但随着 Anthropic 估值在连续融资轮中飙升,这些票据将转换的股份价值大幅上升。亚马逊自身的文件显示,截至 6 月 30 日,其票据持仓估值为 979 亿美元。

According to the S-1, Amazon holds convertible notes with $6.2 billion in principal outstanding as of June 30. That is Anthropic’s entire debt load. But as Anthropic’s valuation soared across successive funding rounds, the shares those notes will convert into became far more valuable. Amazon’s own filings valued its note holdings at $97.9 billion as of June 30.

随着亚马逊可转换票据价值飙升,Anthropic 不得不在账面上记录其所欠债务价值的增长。该公司在利润表的“可转换票据、衍生负债及 SAFE(简易未来股权协议)公允价值变动”项目下报告了这些调整,该行项目 2026 年上半年合计达 724 亿美元。这笔费用属于非现金项目,意味着公司并无资金流出。

As the value of Amazon’s convertible notes surged, Anthropic had to record the growing value of what it owes on its books. It reported the adjustments on its income statement under “change in fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities, and SAFEs,” a line that totaled $72.4 billion for the first half of 2026. The charge is non-cash, meaning no money left the company.

根据 S-1 注册声明,亚马逊的票据最多可转换为 18.4 亿股股份。但一项上限规定将亚马逊持股比例限制在 Anthropic “部分稀释后”股份总数的 12% 以内,该数值包含尚未发行的部分股份(如期权)。亚马逊可选择放弃该上限。无法转换的票据将继续存续,并在后续季度转换,仍受同一限制约束。

Amazon’s notes could convert into as many as 1.84 billion shares, according to the S-1. But a cap limits Amazon to 12% of Anthropic’s “partially diluted” share count, a figure that counts some shares not yet issued, such as stock options. Amazon can waive the cap. Notes that can’t convert will stay outstanding and convert in later quarters, subject to the same limit.

但票据仅是亚马逊持仓的一部分。根据亚马逊截至 6 月 30 日止季度的季度报告,该公司在第二季度进一步投资 100 亿美元购买无投票权优先股(一种权益工具),具体方式是分别在 Anthropic 最近两轮融资中各投入 50 亿美元。加上 2023 年至 2025 年在票据上投入的 80 亿美元,亚马逊的总投资额达到约 180 亿美元。

But the notes are only part of Amazon’s holdings. It further invested $10 billion in nonvoting preferred stock (a type of equity), in the second quarter, according to Amazon’s quarterly report for the period ended June 30. Amazon did this by investing $5 billion in each of Anthropic’s last two funding rounds. Combined with the $8 billion it invested in the notes from 2023 through 2025, that brings Amazon’s total investment to about $18 billion.

除了股票收益,亚马逊还将继续从 Anthropic 获得可观收入,后者承诺在未来 10 年内在 AWS 上至少支出 1100 亿美元。

Beyond its stock gains, Amazon will also continue to earn significant revenue from Anthropic, which has committed to spend at least $110 billion on AWS over the next 10 years.

谷歌同样有望从上市及其与 Anthropic 的云计算交易中获得巨额收益。据《纽约时报》报道的法庭文件显示,截至去年早些时候,这家搜索巨头持有 Anthropic 约 14% 的股份,此后又追加投资,包括 4 月投入的 100 亿美元。(由于后续多轮大规模融资稀释,PitchBook 分析师 Harrison Rolfes 告诉 TechCrunch,他估计谷歌目前的持股比例更接近 5.6%。)谷歌还从 Anthropic 处锁定了至 2033 年至少 1140 亿美元的云服务承诺。

Google, too, is set for a major windfall from both the listing and its cloud computing deals with Anthropic. The search giant held about 14% of Anthropic as of early last year, according to court filings that were reported by The New York Times, and has invested more since, including $10 billion in April. (Google was likely diluted in subsequent and massive funding rounds, with PitchBook analyst Harrison Rolfes telling TechCrunch he estimates its current stake at closer to 5.6%.) It has also secured at least $114 billion in cloud commitments from the Anthropic through 2033.

虽然即将获得巨额回报的风投机构鲜有抱怨理由,但招股说明书(S-1)清楚地表明,Anthropic 首次公开募股(IPO)的最大赢家很可能是亚马逊等科技巨头,它们早早押注了一家潜在竞争对手,如今又向其出售运行所需的大量算力。

While VCs set for massive paydays have little reason to complain, the S-1 makes it clear that the biggest winners of Anthropic’s IPO may well be tech giants like Amazon, which backed a would-be rival early on and now sell it much of the computing power it runs on.

招股说明书本身也警告称,其中一些云服务提供商同时也在构建竞争性 AI 模型,且它们的意愿未必始终与 Anthropic 一致。

The S-1 itself warns that some of those cloud providers also build rival AI models and that they may not always want the same things that Anthropic does.

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