分析人士称，移民限制、生活成本上涨以及美印关系紧张，正在考验部分在2024年支持共和党的印裔美国人对唐纳德·特朗普总统的支持力度，这距离11月的中期选举已不远。
Immigration restrictions, rising living costs and strains in US-India relations are testing support for President Donald Trump among some Indian-Americans who backed the Republican Party in 2024, analysts say, ahead of November’s midterm elections.
AAPI Data与亚裔及太平洋岛民美国人投票组织于8月发布的一项调查显示，66%的印裔美国受访者倾向支持美国众议院的民主党候选人，而支持共和党候选人的仅为18%。在参议院竞选中，66%倾向民主党，22%倾向共和党。
A survey released in August by AAPI Data and Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote found that 66 per cent of Indian-American respondents favoured Democratic candidates for the US House of Representatives, compared with 18 per cent for Republicans. For the Senate, 66 per cent preferred Democrats and 22 per cent Republicans.
这些发现紧随印裔美国选民对特朗普支持率在2020年和2024年总统大选间据报上升之后。卡内基国际和平基金会于2024年10月进行的大选前调查显示，32%的已登记印裔美国选民打算那年投票给特朗普，高于2020年的22%。
The findings follow a reported rise in support for Trump among Indian-American voters between the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections. A pre-election survey by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in October 2024 found that 32 per cent of registered Indian-American voters intended to vote for Trump that year, up from 22 per cent in 2020.
该基金会的调查还显示，自认是民主党人的比例从2020年的56%降至2024年的47%，并在其2026年2月的调查中微降至46%。2026年自认是共和党人的比例为19%，而29%自认是独立人士。
The endowment’s surveys also showed that the share identifying as Democrats fell from 56 per cent in 2020 to 47 per cent in 2024, before edging down to 46 per cent in its February 2026 survey. Republican identification stood at 19 per cent in 2026, while 29 per cent identified as independents.
美国中期选举将于11月3日举行，将决定国会的权力平衡，并塑造立法优先事项和对总统的监督，可能会限制特朗普推进其议程的能力。
The US midterm elections on November 3 will determine the balance of power in Congress and shape legislative priorities and oversight of the president, potentially constraining Trump’s ability to advance his agenda.
分析人士指出，印裔美国人在下周投票前似乎进一步远离特朗普和共和党，原因有若干。
Analysts point to a number of reasons why Indian-Americans appear to be moving further from Trump and the Republicans ahead of next week’s vote.
观察家研究基金会战略研究副主任维韦克·米什拉表示：“部分印裔美国人将转向民主党，特别是那些曾被特朗普说服投票给共和党的人。这是因为驱逐出境、签证限制和物价上涨。”
“Sections of Indian-Americans will gravitate towards the Democrats, especially those who were persuaded by Trump to vote for the Republican Party. This is because of deportations, visa curbs and price rises,” said Vivek Mishra, deputy director of strategic studies at the Observer Research Foundation.
特朗普政府推出了重大签证限制并加强了移民执法，影响了印度专业人士和研究生，其中包括大幅提高签证费用。
The Trump administration has introduced major restrictions on visas and stepped up immigration enforcement, affecting Indian professionals and graduate students, including through a steep increase in visa fees.
米什拉说，自2月下旬美伊战争爆发以来，印度裔美国人也因生活成本上涨而受到冲击。特朗普去年上任时通胀率为3%，上个月升至3.7%。
Indian-Americans had also been stung by rising living costs since the US-Iran war started in late February, Mishra said. Inflation was 3 per cent when Trump took office last year and reached 3.7 per cent last month.
据美国“人类安全与国际事务中心”创始人兼主任马尤尔瓦加南·穆图马里亚潘称，食品、燃料和其他必需品成本上涨预计将影响印度裔美国选民，加上移民限制和美印关系，可能在一些势均力敌的选战中令民主党受益。
Rising costs for food, fuel and other essentials are expected to influence Indian-American voters, alongside immigration restrictions and US-India relations, potentially benefiting Democrats in some closely contested races, according to Mayilvaganan Muthumariappan, US-based founder and director of the Centre for Human Security and International Affairs.
印度裔美国人普遍被视为美国经济上成功且有影响力的群体，尽管他们占美国选民的比例不足1.5%。
Indian-Americans are widely regarded as an economically successful and influential community in the United States, although they account for less than 1.5 per cent of American voters.
印度裔美国人社区集中在加利福尼亚州、新泽西州、纽约州、得克萨斯州、佐治亚州、北卡罗来纳州、密歇根州和宾夕法尼亚州等州，其中几个州存在竞争激烈的选举竞争。“虽然印度裔美国选民不太可能单凭一己之力决定2026年中期选举的整体结果，但他们的投票模式在胜负差距微小的选战中可能很重要，”穆图马里亚潘说。“他们可能极大地影响投票结果，进而影响国会的控制权。”不过，他表示他们的投票支持可能会出现分歧。
The Indian-American community is concentrated in states including California, New Jersey, New York, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania, several of which have competitive electoral contests“While Indian-American voters are unlikely to decide the overall outcome of the 2026 midterms on their own, their voting patterns may be important in races with narrow margins,” Muthumariappan said. “They could greatly influence the voting results [and] in a way the control of Congress.”However, he said their voting support could diverge. “While some may lean towards Democrats due to dissatisfaction with Trump, others – especially independents and moderates – are expected to consider economic conditions and policy priorities when deciding,” he said, adding that these issues would count more than any traditional choice.
“虽然一些人可能因对特朗普不满而倾向民主党，但其他人——尤其是独立人士和温和派——预计将在决定时考虑经济状况和政策优先事项，”他说，并补充称这些议题将比任何传统选择更重要。
Monish Tourangbam, a fellow at the New Delhi-based Chintan Research Foundation’s Centre for Geopolitics and Strategic Studies, said the Indian-American community was leaning towards Democrats, although a section of them would be distinctly independent in their choices.
新德里智库“Chintan Research Foundation”地缘政治与战略研究中心研究员莫尼什·图兰甘巴姆表示，印裔美国人群体倾向民主党，尽管其中一部分人在选择上会明显保持独立。
“They may vote for a third party that is neither Republican nor Democrat or not vote at all,” he said.
他说：“他们可能会投给既非共和党也非民主党的第三党，或者根本不投票。”
With Trump’s approval rating hovering near record lows, that had created an opportunity for Democrats, but the party would need to outline robust policies to win back Indian-American voters, he said.
他说，随着特朗普的支持率徘徊在历史低位附近，这给民主党创造了机会，但该党需要拿出强有力的政策，才能赢回印裔美国选民。
Yashwant Deshmukh, founder of opinion and exit poll survey firm C-Voter, said parts of Trump’s Make America Great Again (Maga) movement and the wider right-wing political ecosystem had increasingly engaged in anti-Indian racism and xenophobia.
民意与出口民调调查公司C-Voter创始人亚什万特·德什穆克表示，特朗普的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动的部分势力，以及更广泛的右翼政治生态系统，越来越多地从事反印裔种族主义和排外行为。
A recent example came in September, when Bo French, the Republican nominee for the Texas Railroad Commission, posted a photograph of South Asian students celebrating a University of Texas at Austin football victory, claiming it showed how many Americans had been “displaced by foreigners”.
最近的一个例子发生在9月，得克萨斯州铁路委员会共和党提名人博·弗伦奇发布了一张南亚裔学生庆祝得克萨斯州立大学奥斯汀分校橄榄球队获胜的照片，声称照片显示了有多少美国人被“外国人取代”。
The post drew widespread criticism, including from Republicans such as Senator John Cornyn, who condemned French’s remarks as racist.
该帖子招致广泛批评，包括来自共和党参议员约翰·科宁的谴责，科宁指责弗伦奇的言论带有种族主义色彩。弗伦奇为自己的言论辩护，辩称大学应优先考虑美国人，而非外国留学生和工人。
French defended his comments, arguing that universities should prioritise Americans over foreign students and workers. “That is making Indians a bit apprehensive,” Deshmukh said.
德什穆克说：“这让印度人有点担忧。这抵消了共和党议员因亲商政策而积累的大量善意。”虽然一些亲商派共和党人支持吸引科技人才，但民粹主义和“美国优先”派系反复针对H-1B签证和绿卡项目，这些项目为熟练工人进入美国以及符合条件的移民获得永久居留权提供了途径。
“It is taking away a lot of goodwill Republican lawmakers had generated because of their pro-business policies.”While some pro-business Republicans favour attracting technology talent, populist and “America First” factions have repeatedly targeted the H-1B visa and green card programmes, which provide routes for skilled workers to enter the US and for eligible immigrants to obtain permanent residence.
德什穆克表示，MAGA（让美国再次伟大）运动煽动公众情绪，针对包括医生、金融和软件专家在内的高素质印裔美国专业人士，这种做法是不理性的。
Deshmukh said Maga campaigns whipping up public sentiment against highly qualified Indian-American professionals, including doctors and finance and software specialists, were irrational.
他说：“我们看到针对印度移民的持续且带有种族主义色彩的攻击，暗示他们抢走了吸引中低技能工人的工作岗位。他们并没有偷走你们的工作。他们是高素质人才。”他表示，几年前出现的亲特朗普情绪已经结束。
“We are seeing very sustained and racist campaigns against Indian immigrants suggesting that they are taking away jobs which appeal to middle- and low-skilled workers,” he said. “They are not stealing your jobs. They are highly qualified.”
总部位于伦敦的政治评论员普里亚吉特·德巴萨卡尔表示，印裔美国人对特朗普政府感到失望，他们原本以为特朗普政府主要会针对非法移民，而不是科技工人等专业人士。
He said the pro-Trump sentiment that had emerged a couple of years ago was over.
德巴萨卡尔说，特朗普公开支持印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪，也曾让一些印裔美国人相信他的政策将有利于与新德里建立更紧密的关系，但随后的事态发展打破了这些预期。
Priyajit Debsarkar, a London-based political commentator, said Indian-Americans felt let down by the Trump administration, which they had assumed would largely target illegal immigrants rather than professionals such as technology workers.
德巴萨卡尔说：“相反，贸易政策出现了奇怪的反复。”他指出，特朗普政府曾提议对印度商品征收100%的关税，部分原因是印度购买俄罗斯石油，随后又改变了方向。
Trump’s public support for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had also led some Indian-Americans to believe his policies would favour closer engagement with Delhi, Debsarkar said, but subsequent developments had challenged those expectations. “There has instead been bizarre oscillations in trade policies,” Debsarkar said, highlighting how Trump’s administration had moved from proposing 100 per cent tariffs on Indian goods, partly in response to India’s purchases of Russian oil, to subsequently changing course.
他还表示，特朗普对巴基斯坦的示好激怒了一些印裔美国人，鉴于新德里担心伊斯兰堡涉嫌支持跨境武装活动，以及特朗普声称曾在去年印巴为期五天的战争中进行调解，而印度对此提出异议。
He also said Trump’s outreach to Pakistan had rankled some Indian-Americans, given Delhi’s concerns about Islamabad’s alleged support for cross-border militancy and Trump’s claims to have mediated during a five-day India-Pakistan war last year, which India disputed.
德巴萨卡尔说，现任美国政府带来的最大变化是对印度移民情绪的转变。
The biggest change under the current US administration was the shift in sentiment towards Indian immigrants, Debsarkar said.
他说：“我认为，印度侨民认为美国包容且宽容的观念已经改变了。”
“I think the notion among the Indian diaspora that the US is tolerant and inclusive has changed,” he said.