新西兰央行意外维持关键利率不变，理由是全球不确定性正冲击国内需求。新西兰元下跌。
New Zealand’s central bank unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate, citing global uncertainty that is impacting domestic demand. The kiwi dollar fell.
新西兰储备银行货币政策委员会周三在惠灵顿将官方现金利率维持在 2.75%，彭博社调查的 25 位经济学家中仅有 2 人预期如此，其余均预期加息 25 个基点。
The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee held the Official Cash Rate at 2.75% on Wednesday in Wellington, as expected by just two of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The remainder expected a quarter-point hike.
新西兰储备银行在声明中表示：“委员们对各类风险的权重及货币政策应对时机的看法存在分歧。委员会一致认为，可能需要更紧缩的货币政策，但这仍取决于经济前景。”该行在会议纪要中称，货币政策委员会以 4 比 3 的票数决定维持利率不变。Paul Conway、Hayley Gourley 和 Karen Silk 投票支持加息 25 个基点。
“Members differed in how much weight they placed on various risks and the timing of the monetary policy response,” the RBNZ said in a statement. “The Committee agreed that tighter monetary policy is likely to be required but remains conditional on the economic outlook.”The MPC voted 4-3 to hold, it said in its Record of Meeting. Paul Conway, Hayley Gourley and Karen Silk voted for a 25 basis-point hike.
行长 Anna Breman 和货币政策委员会成员 Prasanna Gai 属于投票支持维持利率不变的四名成员之一，他们对“全球环境可能急剧变化”这一可能性赋予了实质性风险权重。此次新西兰储备银行的决定属于货币政策审查，意味着没有新的经济或现金利率预测。Breman 将于当地时间下午 3 点举行新闻发布会。
Governor Anna Breman and MPC member Prasanna Gai, who were amongst the four members who voted to hold, attached material risk to the possibility that the “global environment could shift abruptly.”This RBNZ decision was a monetary policy review, meaning there are no new economic or cash rate projections. Breman will hold a news conference at 3 p.m. local time.
决议公布后，新西兰元兑美元一度下跌 1.7% 至 55.86 美分。
The New Zealand dollar slid as much as 1.7% to 55.86 US cents immediately after the decision.
此次决议距离大选仅剩 10 天，中右翼联合政府面临胶着竞争，对手工党领导的中左翼阵营提议恢复新西兰储备银行“物价稳定与充分就业”的双重使命。
The decision comes just 10 days before a general election, with the center-right coalition government facing a close contest and the rival Labour-led center-left bloc proposing to restore the RBNZ’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
总理 Christopher Luxon 强调，自 2023 年底上任以来房贷成本下降，提振了家庭收入。但住房贷款利率在过去 12 个月里一直在上涨，并可能进一步攀升。
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has highlighted the fall in mortgage costs since taking office in late 2023 as a boost to household incomes. But home-loan interest rates have been rising for the past 12 months and may climb further.
尽管由于燃料成本上升和新西兰元走弱，短期通胀前景将比决策者在9月政策声明中预期的更为显著，但今日决定维持利率不变。经济学家的预测显示，通胀将维持在新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）设定的1%-3%目标区间上方，直至2027年底，这促使投资者预期未来几个月官方现金利率（OCR）将走高。
Today’s decision to hold comes despite the prospect that near-term inflation will be much more pronounced than policymakers expected in their September policy statement as a consequence of rising fuel costs and a weaker New Zealand dollar. Economists’ forecasts suggest inflation will stay above the 1-3% band the RBNZ targets until late 2027, prompting investors to price a higher OCR in coming months.
新西兰储备银行表示，通胀在第三季度略微回落至3.7%，预计将在第四季度加速至4.4%。不过，该行称，短期通胀前景存在不确定性。
Inflation, which edged lower to 3.7% in the third quarter, is tipped to accelerate to 4.4% in the fourth quarter, the RBNZ said. However, the near-term outlook for inflation is uncertain, it said.
该行表示：“家庭支出增长疲软限制了部分企业将较高成本转嫁给消费者以恢复利润率的能力。但通胀维持高位的时间越长，较高成本传导至通胀预期以及定价和工资设定行为的风险就越大，导致通胀更具粘性。”
“Subdued growth in household spending is limiting the ability of some firms to pass on higher costs to restore profit margins,” it said. “But the longer inflation remains high, the greater the risk of higher costs feeding into inflation expectations and price- and wage-setting behavior, making inflation more persistent.”