新西兰央行首席经济学家保罗·康威（Paul Conway）表示，尽管通胀压力在上升，但新西兰10月下旬的利率决策仍然“悬而未决”。
New Zealand’s interest rate decision in late October is “wide open,” according to Reserve Bank chief economist Paul Conway, even as inflation pressures build.
康威在曼谷国际货币基金组织和世界银行会议期间接受彭博电视台采访时说：“我认为我们的下一次决策仍然悬而未决。”他补充道：“我们希望保持选择性。我们希望能够选择不加息或加息25个基点，我认为我们已经把这两种选择摆在了桌面上。”新西兰央行在第三季度两次加息，将官方现金利率提升至2.75%，但在9月的声明中惊讶了一些人，称其希望评估连续加息的影响。
“I think for our next decision, it’s wide open,” Conway told Bloomberg Television Thursday on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Bangkok. “We wanted optionality. We wanted to have the option of doing a zero or a 25, and I think we’ve got that on the table.”The RBNZ hiked twice in the third quarter, lifting the Official Cash Rate to 2.75%, but surprised some in its September statement by saying it wanted to assess the impact of those back-to-back increases.
这导致投资者将10月28日会议加息25个基点的可能性降至仅略高于60%。康威表示，新西兰央行故意将10月决策的前景保持开放。
That led investors to reduce the likelihood of a 25 basis point hike at the Oct. 28 meeting to little more than 60%. Conway said the RBNZ intentionally left the outlook for the October decision open.
“我们对市场说，‘你们觉得怎么样？’”他说。“我认为这效果不错。我们从市场定价中获得了一些很好的见解。”康威重申，新西兰央行仍认为官方现金利率的方向“最可能是上升”的，但对时机仍未做出决定。投资者已经完全将12月会议加息25个基点至3%纳入预期。
“We said to markets, ‘what do you guys think?’” he said. “I think it’s worked quite well. We’re getting some good insights out of market pricing.”Conway reiterated the RBNZ continues to think the direction of the OCR “is most likely up” but remains undecided on timing. Investors are fully pricing a quarter-point hike to 3% in the December meeting.
康威表示，新西兰央行有信心通胀将在明年放缓至其1%-3%的目标区间内，尽管油价上涨和新西兰元近期贬值带来了短期上行压力。“显然，这对短期通胀不利，”他说。
The RBNZ is confident that inflation will slow to within its 1-3% target band next year although there is near-term upside pressure from oil prices and the recent slide in the New Zealand dollar, Conway said. “Obviously, that’s not good for near-term inflation,” he said.
新西兰央行预测通胀将从今年第二季度的4.1%降至2026年底的3.9%，但康威表示：“第四季度CPI预测存在一些上行风险，部分原因是油价最近回升，另一部分则源于新西兰元的贬值。”
The RBNZ has forecast inflation easing to 3.9% by the end of 2026 from 4.1% in the second quarter but “there’s some upside risk to that fourth quarter CPI projection, partly because oil prices have gone back up recently, and also from the depreciation in the dollar,” Conway said.