加拿大央行将于10月28日将隔夜利率上调25个基点至2.50%，并在3月底前再加息一次，以防止通胀预期进一步上升，路透社调查的大多数经济学家如此预测。
The Bank of Canada will raise its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on October 28 and follow with one more hike by the end of March to pre-empt any further rise in inflation expectations, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters.
9月通胀率升至3.1%，仅略微超出加拿大央行1%至3%的目标区间。但央行最新的商业前景调查显示，在加拿大主要出口目的地美国的贸易谈判近期破裂之前，通胀预期已大幅上升。
Inflation rose to 3.1% in September, only barely overshooting the BoC's target range of 1% to 3%. But the central bank's latest business outlook survey showed sharply rising inflation expectations in the run-up to a recent breakdown in trade talks with the United States, Canada's main export destination.
央行行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆周六在对记者的讲话中表示，下周公布的季度通胀预测可能会上调，市场将其解读为加息即将到来的暗示。
Quarterly inflation forecasts from the bank, also due next week, are likely to be revised higher, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem told reporters in remarks Saturday that markets interpreted as a hint a rate rise is coming.
利率期货定价显示，10月加息的概率已从30%升至约四分之三。本周许多经济学家将观点从维持利率不变转为预期加息，理由正是麦克勒姆的这些言论。
Interest rate futures have moved from pricing in a 30% chance of a rate hike in October to around a three-in-four likelihood. Many economists this week changed their view from a hold to a hike, citing those remarks from Macklem.
德夏集团董事总经理兼宏观策略主管罗伊斯·门德斯表示：“改变行长周末公开讲话基调、也改变我们周一观点的，是同一个来源，即加拿大央行商业前景调查和消费者调查的结果。”
"What changed the tone in the governor's public comments on the weekend and what changed our view on Monday is the same source, and that is the responses from the BoC's business outlook and consumer surveys," said Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins.
门德斯说：“推测行长在周一结果更广泛发布前已看到结果。我推测这影响了他的公开评论。调查回复……表明将出现更严重的通胀压力。”
"So presumably the governor had seen the results before they were published more broadly on Monday. And I would assume that informed his public commentary," Mendes said.
在10月21日至23日的调查中，34位受访经济学家中有19位，即56%，表示加拿大央行将把隔夜利率上调四分之一百分点至2.50%，这将是一年来的首次行动。
"The survey responses...suggest there are more serious inflationary pressures coming." Nineteen of 34 economists surveyed in the October 21-23 poll, or 56% of them, said the BoC will hike its overnight rate by a quarter percentage point to 2.50%, its first move in a year.
这与上一次调查形成明显反转，当时80%的受访者预测央行将维持2.25%的利率直到2026年底，三分之二的受访者预测将维持直到2027年3月底。
This is a clear reversal from the previous poll, when 80% of respondents forecast the bank would hold its rate at 2.25% until the end of 2026, and two-thirds of them forecast a hold until the end of March 2027.
那些预测下周不加息的经济学家主要援引了疲软的经济和温和的通胀压力，尽管油价飙升，周五一度触及每桶117美元，为5月以来首次。
Those economists who forecast no move next week mainly cited a weak economy and subdued inflation pressures despite soaring oil prices , which hit $117 a barrel for the first time since May on Friday.
在29位受访者中，有16位（占55%的多数）还预测在2027年3月前还会再加息一次，此后决策者将把隔夜利率维持在2.75%，民调中位数显示。如果属实，这将是加拿大央行30年来最短的政策紧缩周期。
Sixteen of 29 respondents, a 55% majority, also forecast one more rise before March 2027, after which policymakers would hold the overnight rate at 2.75%, poll medians showed. If correct, it will be the shortest BoC policy tightening campaign in 30 years.
但即使是短暂的一系列加息，也会让加拿大央行加入越来越多的央行行列，这些央行为了应对因美国主导的对伊朗战争（始于2月）而出现的持续通胀，选择了更紧缩的货币政策。
But even a short series of hikes would bring the BoC into a widening group of central banks that have opted for tighter monetary policy in response to persistent inflation emerging as a result of the US-led war with Iran that began in February.
在主要央行中，只有加拿大央行和英格兰银行——后者普遍预计将在11月初的会议上加息——尚未开始加息。
Among major central banks, only the BoC and the Bank of England — which is widely expected to raise rates at its early November meeting — have not yet begun to raise rates.
但许多人表示，考虑到经济面临的其他风险，加拿大央行需要审慎把握加息节奏。
But many say the BoC will need to be measured with the pace of rate increases given other risks to the economy.
加拿大蒙特利尔银行（BMO）加拿大利率与宏观策略师本杰明·赖茨表示：“他们宁愿犯过早加息一点的错误，这意味着最终可能少加息一点，也不愿落后于曲线，就像2021-2022年发生的那样，他们不想重蹈覆辙。” 民调中位数显示，经济增长上季度可能从第二季度的3.3%放缓至1.9%，本季度预计为1.3%，明年将加速。调查显示，经济2026年将增长1.0%，2027年增长1.7%。
Benjamin Reitzes, Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO, said: "They'd rather make the mistake of hiking a little bit too early, which means maybe they have to hike a little bit less at the end of the day than falling behind the curve, which is what happened in 2021-2022, and they don't want to repeat that mistake.”Economic growth likely slowed to 1.9% last quarter from 3.3% in Q2 and is forecast at 1.3% in the current one before accelerating next year, poll medians showed. The economy will grow 1.0% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027, the survey found.
民调中位数显示，2026年全年通胀将平均为2.8%，2027年降至2.3%。
Inflation will average 2.8% for 2026 as a whole, falling to 2.3% in 2027, poll medians showed.