加拿大央行行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆可能已将自己置于下周加息的境地，因为他鹰派的言论让交易员们确信加息几成定局。
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem may have boxed himself into an interest-rate hike next week after his hawkish commentary convinced traders a hike is all but certain.
麦克勒姆周末的言论推动市场加大押注，认为央行将于10月28日将政策利率上调至2.5%。他表示，看到更多证据显示较高油价正在支撑加拿大经济增长，并预计央行将上调通胀预测。
Macklem’s comments over the weekend pushed markets to increase their bets that the bank will raise the policy rate to 2.5% on Oct. 28. He said he’s seeing more evidence that higher oil prices are supporting economic growth in Canada, and expects the bank will have a higher inflation forecast.
隔夜掉期交易员目前认为加息概率为76%（截至周四晚间），一周前这一比例约为35%。
Traders in overnight swaps now put the odds of a rate hike at 76% as of Thursday night, from about 35% a week earlier.
加拿大皇家银行首席经济学家弗朗西丝·唐纳德表示，市场定价是她将预测转为即将加息的关键原因，她认为这也是主要加拿大经济学家共识迅速转变的原因。
Royal Bank of Canada Chief Economist Frances Donald said that the market’s pricing is a key reason she flipped her forecast to an imminent rate increase, and she believes it’s why consensus among major Canadian economists has rapidly changed as well.
“除了央行似乎已传达了这一意图且市场已将其内化之外，我们看不到任何证据表明有必要在本次会议上加息，”她在接受采访时表示。
“We don’t see any evidence of needing to hike interest rates at this meeting, beyond that it’s been seemingly communicated and the market has internalized it,” she said in an interview.
如果成行，这将是央行三年多来首次上调借贷成本，尽管加拿大经济正努力寻找立足点。经济已连续两个月削减就业岗位；美国关税和移民减少造成增长阻力，许多消费者信心不足。唐纳德表示，如果加息，决策者将需要解释为何行动如此迅速。
If it comes to pass, it would be the first time the central bank has increased borrowing costs in more than three years, even as Canada’s economy struggles to find its footing. The economy has shed jobs two months in a row; US tariffs and reduced immigration have created growth headwinds, and many consumers are skittish. If they hike, policymakers will need to justify why they moved so quickly, Donald said.
自9月初以来，麦克勒姆采取了更鹰派的基调，当时他明确表示，决策者日益担忧高能源价格传导至更广泛的通胀。即使在加美贸易紧张局势升级之际，央行仍选择强调较高燃料成本带来的上行风险，令市场和许多经济学家措手不及。
Macklem has struck a more hawkish tone since early September, when he made it clear that policymakers were increasingly worried about high energy prices feeding through to broader inflation. The bank chose to emphasize upside risks from higher fuel costs even when trade tensions between Canada and the US were escalating, taking markets and many economists off guard.
周四晚间，布伦特原油交易价格升至每桶113美元以上，为5月以来最高。周六，麦克勒姆表示，他看不到中东冲突结束的迹象，该冲突已导致能源及其他货物运输受阻。
On Thursday evening, Brent crude was trading above $113 a barrel, the highest since May. On Saturday, Macklem said he saw no end in sight to the conflict in the Middle East that’s snarled energy and other shipments.
一些经济学家认为这是有意为之。加拿大国民银行金融首席经济学家斯蒂凡·马里昂表示，行长“特意”向市场提供了这一指引。
Some economists believe that was intentional. The governor “went out of his way” to provide that guidance to the market, said National Bank Financial Chief Economist Stéfane Marion.
周一，加拿大统计局数据显示，总体通胀率升至3.1%，但核心指标大多仍保持温和。当天晚些时候，央行的调查显示，有迹象表明长期通胀预期正在变得不再稳固，进一步助长了交易员对潜在加息的押注。
On Monday, Statistics Canada data showed headline inflation rose to 3.1%, but core measures were still mostly subdued. Later that day, the bank’s surveys showed some evidence that longer-term inflation expectations are becoming unanchored, further fueling traders’ bets on a potential hike.
央行有可能选择在周三维持利率不变，并发出稍后加息的信号。但唐纳德表示，这将带来后果。
There’s a chance the central bank could choose to hold Wednesday and signal that higher rates are coming later. But that would have consequences, Donald said.
唐纳德说：“如果他们不兑现这一点，麦克勒姆行长将面临关于他过去六周沟通策略的质疑，同时也会因不加息而无意中在收益率曲线最前端起到了宽松作用。”
“If they don’t deliver on this, then Governor Macklem faces both questions around what his communication strategy was for the past six weeks, and also unintentionally easing at the very front of the curve by not delivering,” Donald said.
加拿大国民银行、蒙特利尔银行和德加尔登集团均调整预测，预期紧缩将于下周开始。新斯科舍银行也强化了其立场。
National Bank of Canada, Bank of Montreal and Desjardins Group all switched their calls to expect tightening to begin next week. Bank of Nova Scotia also firmed up its position.
毕马威加拿大首席经济学家阿里·贾弗里在听到行长周末的言论后，也将预测改为加息，称央行已转向关注石油带来的通胀风险。
Ali Jaffery, chief economist at KPMG Canada, also changed his call to a hike after hearing the governor’s comments over the weekend, saying the bank has pivoted to focusing on the inflation risks from oil.
他说，他的分析基于他认为央行将如何行动以应对对其公信力的潜在风险——而非基于经济数据认为央行应该怎么做。
He said his analysis is based on what he thinks the bank will do to get ahead of any risks to its credibility — not what it should do based on the economic data.
他说：“这本可以用不同的方式处理。市场只会抓住鹰派言论，虽然这对维护公信力确实重要，但如果无视数据，你可能会陷入镜花水月的境地。”
“This could have been done differently. Markets are only going to latch onto the hawkish statements, and while that does matter in terms of shoring up credibility, you can trap yourself in a hall of mirrors if you disregard the data,” he said.
他还警告称，如果在这个时候放弃加息计划，将会让市场感到意外，进而可能导致债券价格进一步下跌——因为投资者会更加担心通货膨胀以及该银行的信誉问题。
He also warned that backing down from a hike at this point would surprise markets, and potentially cause bonds to sell off further out the curve as investors become more worried about inflation and the bank’s credibility.
“在当前形势下，突然决定不加息反而会扰乱市场秩序，因为这会推高长期债券的收益率，”他在给投资者的报告中写道。
“Surprising the market with a hold would be unwise at this point, as it would push longer-term bond yields higher,” he said in a report to investors.
目前市场预计到明年9月时利率将上调0.5个百分点。这样一来，政策利率将达到3.25%，这处于所谓的“中性利率区间”的上限——即既不会刺激经济增长，也不会抑制经济增长的利率水平。
Markets are pricing a full percentage point of hikes by September of next year. That would bring the policy rate to 3.25%, the top of the estimated so-called neutral range, where it neither stimulates nor restricts economic growth.