货币市场和经济学家预计，加拿大央行将于周三将基准利率上调 25 个基点，以此作为一项先发制人的举措，防止由能源引发的通胀蔓延至经济的其他领域。
The Bank of Canada will likely raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday as a pre-emptive move to stop energy-led inflation from spreading to the rest of the economy, according to money markets and economists.
加息将推高消费者的借贷成本，并可能拖累已显疲软的经济。但经济学家表示，这也将显示决策者多么担心较高的能源成本会溢出至食品和房价。
A hike would raise borrowing costs for consumers and could weigh on a weakening economy. But it would also show how worried policymakers are that higher energy costs will spill into food and housing prices, economists said.
这将是自 2023 年 7 月以来的首次加息，也是央行政策利率一年来的首次变动。
A rate increase would be the first since July 2023 and the first change in the bank’s policy rate in a year.
本月初，在曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织会议上，加拿大央行行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆（Tiff Macklem）发出信号，表明如果通胀居高不下，央行已准备好采取行动。他在发言后发布的加拿大央行企业和消费者调查显示了通胀担忧。
Earlier this month at International Monetary Fund meetings in Bangkok, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem signaled the bank was ready to act if inflation stays high. The BoC's business and consumer surveys, released after his comments, showed inflationary concerns.
“行长多次指出，能源价格高企的时间越长，他们的通胀担忧就越大。我认为这很可能已超出加拿大央行的舒适区，”蒙特利尔银行金融集团首席经济学家道格·波特（Doug Porter）表示。
"The governor has made the point many times that their inflation concerns rise the longer energy prices stay high. And I think it's probably just gone beyond the comfort zone for the Bank of Canada," said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Financial Group.
波特说，虽然鉴于较疲软的经济状况，他不赞成加息，但央行释放的信号表明将会加息。
Porter said while he was not in favor of a hike due to weaker economic conditions, the central bank's messaging indicates a rate increase.
值得注意的是，过去几周的一大批数据并未显示较高的原油价格（已推高汽油和柴油价格）正渗透至食品价格或其他项目的成本中。
To be sure, a broad set of data in the last few weeks has not shown that higher crude oil prices, which have pulled up gasoline and diesel prices, are trickling into food prices or costs of other items.
年通胀率于 9 月升至 3.1%，几乎完全由能源推动，而剔除波动性成分的核心指标已降至 2% 以下，即央行 1% 至 3% 目标区间的中点。住房、制造业和批发贸易数据表明，第三季度经济增长很可能大幅低于第二季度。美国计划于 1 月对部分加拿大产品（如汽车、汽车零部件和钢铁）征收更高关税。最近两份就业报告疲软，抹去了今年以来的所有就业增幅。
Annual inflation rose to 3.1% in September, driven almost entirely by energy, while core measures, which strip out volatile components, eased below 2%, the midpoint of the bank’s 1% to 3% target range. Data on housing, manufacturing and wholesale trade indicate third-quarter economic growth will likely be substantially lower than the second quarter. The US plans to impose higher tariffs in January on some Canadian products, such as autos, auto parts and steel. The last two job reports have been weak, wiping out any employment gains this year.
自央行9月上次会议以来，加拿大两年期国债收益率已上涨逾22个基点。
Two-year Canadian government bond yields have risen more than 22 basis points since the central bank's last meeting in September.
“油价上涨将开始对几乎所有商品的价格造成痛苦，”独立经济研究公司Signal49 Research首席经济学家佩德罗·安图内斯表示，并补充称，正是这种连锁效应是央行试图防止的。
"Higher oil prices are going to start to administer pain on the price of (everything) pretty much across the board," said Pedro Antunes, chief economist at Signal49 Research, an independent economic research firm, adding that it is that knock-on effect the bank is trying to prevent.
“我认为他们想表现强硬，确保……通胀预期扎根，”安图内斯说。
"I think they want to talk tough and make sure that ... (inflation) expectations are rooted," Antunes said.
货币市场定价显示周三将加息25个基点，这将把隔夜利率推高至2.5%。
Money markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point hike on Wednesday, which will take the overnight rate to 2.5%.
路透社10月21日至23日对34位经济学家的调查显示，其中19位预计加拿大央行将于周三将隔夜利率上调四分之一个百分点至2.50%。大多数受访者还预测在3月前还将再加息一次。
Nineteen of 34 economists surveyed by Reuters October 21-23 said the BoC will hike its overnight rate by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday to 2.50%. A majority also forecast one more rise before March.
加拿大央行将于周三上午9:45（东部时间，格林威治标准时间13:45）宣布货币政策决定。届时还将发布季度《货币政策报告》，预计将大幅上调未来一年的通胀预测。
The BoC will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday at 9:45 a.m. ET (1345 GMT). It will also release the quarterly Monetary Policy Report, where it is expected to substantially revise its inflation forecast for the coming year.
美联储也将于周三宣布货币政策决定。市场普遍预期美联储将维持利率不变。
The US Federal Reserve will also announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. It is largely expected to hold rates at the current level.