日本正为应对一个更加难以捉摸的华盛顿盟友做准备，分析人士称，美国中期选举恐将加深政治僵局，使东京的长期安全盘算更加复杂。
Japan is bracing for a more unpredictable ally in Washington, as the US midterm elections threaten to deepen political gridlock and complicate Tokyo’s long-term security calculations, analysts say.
观察人士警告，选举后的政治斗争——从可能重演弹劾程序到缠身美国总统唐纳德·特朗普政府的日益增多的法律诉讼——都有可能分散白宫对外交政策及其对东亚长期承诺的注意力。
Observers warn that post-election political battles, ranging from a possible repeat of impeachment proceedings to the mounting legal battles ensnaring the administration of US President Donald Trump, risk diverting the White House’s attention from foreign policy and its long-standing commitments to East Asia.
华盛顿出现更大动荡，也可能为竞争对手大国创造机会，加剧东京对更广泛的印太地区稳定的担忧。
Greater turmoil in Washington could also open opportunities for rival powers, increasing concerns in Tokyo over broader Indo-Pacific stability.
“中国绝对希望美国政治陷入混乱，”日本天普大学亚洲研究助理教授迈克尔·库切克说。“中国是一个全球行动者，在许多不同方向拥有如此多的关系——拉丁美洲、东南亚、中东。他们将此视为一个向各个方向施加干扰的机会。”据库切克称，尽管日本仍依赖与美国的安全同盟，但东京已意识到，前几十年的可预测性不太可能回归。
“China absolutely wants chaos in US politics,” said Michael Cucek, an assistant professor of Asian studies at Temple University, Japan Campus. “China is a global actor with so many relationships in so many different directions – Latin America, Southeast Asia, the Middle East. They see this as a chance to be an irritant in every direction.”While Japan still relies on its security alliance with the US, Tokyo has come to realise that the predictability of previous decades is unlikely to return, according to Cucek.
路透社/益普索周一发布的一项民调显示，在可能投票者的通用国会选票测试中，民主党以9个百分点的优势领先共和党。这表明民主党极有可能夺回众议院控制权，但在参议院则面临艰难战局。
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday showed Democrats holding a nine percentage point lead over Republicans among likely voters on the generic US congressional ballot. This points to a strong probability of them flipping the House of Representatives while facing an uphill battle in the Senate.
“归根结底，日本希望华盛顿有一个常规的共和党政府——即它过去拥有的那种伙伴，共同的规范对东京来说非常舒适，”库切克说。“那个黄金时代已经一去不复返，东京知道没有什么会回到从前的样子。现在他们正在摸索在这个新的铅时代必须做些什么。”为使自身免受华盛顿政治气候变化的影响，日本已加快步伐，强化本国防卫能力并实现地区安全关系多元化。
“Ultimately, Japan wants a regular Republican administration in Washington – the partner that it used to have, where shared norms were very comfortable for Tokyo,” Cucek said. “That golden age has gone, and Tokyo knows nothing is going to go back to how it used to be. Now they are working out what they have to do in this new age of lead.”To insulate itself against changing political climate in Washington, Japan has stepped up efforts to strengthen its domestic defence capabilities and diversify regional security ties.
东京的对冲战略始于特朗普首个任期，此后不断扩展，促使日本深化与跨大西洋安全同盟北约以及澳大利亚、印度等印太伙伴的安全关系。
Tokyo’s hedging strategy began during Trump’s first term and has since expanded, leading Japan to deepen security ties with transatlantic security alliance Nato and Indo-Pacific partners such as Australia and India.
《读卖新闻》周一报道称，日本“正紧急致力于与共享价值观的志同道合国家建立双边紧急应对磋商框架，以确保在危机发生时能够有效合作”。
Japan was “urgently working to establish a framework for bilateral consultations on emergency responses with like-minded nations that share values to ensure effective cooperation in the event of crises”, the Yomiuri newspaper reported on Monday.
据该报报道，日本2022年与澳大利亚建立了此类机制，今年将该倡议扩展至德国、法国和菲律宾。潜在合作领域包括共享弹药和军事情报，以及联合维护战斗机和军舰。
Japan established such a mechanism with Australia in 2022 and expanded the initiative to Germany, France and the Philippines this year. Potential areas of cooperation include sharing ammunition and military intelligence, alongside joint maintenance of fighter aircraft and warships, according to the newspaper.
日本还致力于推进贸易多元化，在特朗普于2017年退出其前身协定后，日本主导挽救了《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）。
Japan has also pursued greater trade diversification, taking a leading role in salvaging the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership after Trump pulled the US out of its forerunner in 2017.
据楚切克称，尽管东京持续制定应急预案，日本官员仍在悄悄希望，在特朗普剩余任期内，与盟友的公开裂痕和反复无常的外政策转向能降至最低。他说，日本最终想要的“只是行为不那么极端而已”。
While Tokyo has continued to prepare contingency plans, Japanese officials are still quietly hoping that public rifts with allies and erratic foreign policy shifts are kept to a minimum for the rest of Trump’s term, according to Cucek. Japan ultimately wanted “just less extremes of behaviour”, he said.
国内其他保守派声音，如日本保守党前成员岛田洋一，则以更乐观的眼光看待美国中期选举。
Other conservative voices in the country, such as former Conservative Party of Japan member Yoichi Shimada, view the US midterms through a more optimistic lens.
岛田是福井县立大学国际政治学荣誉教授，他说：“作为保守派，我认为对日本最好的结果是共和党在参众两院都保持多数席位，尽管我认识到这将很困难。”
“As a conservative, I believe the best outcome for Japan would be for the Republican Party to retain a majority in both houses, although I recognise that is going to be difficult,” said Shimada, a professor emeritus of international politics at Fukui Prefectural University.
他说：“特朗普在第二任期内并非一切都做对了，我强烈反对他的关税政策，但我基本上认为，他认识到中国在印太地区构成的挑战，并且他将继续支持美国在这里的传统盟友。”
“Trump has not got everything right in his second term and I was strongly opposed to his policy of tariffs, but basically I believe that he recognises the challenges that China poses in the Indo-Pacific region and that he will continue to support the US’ traditional allies here,” he said.
岛田表示，有关弹劾和行政僵局的言论在未来两年可能会升级——不过他怀疑特朗普会被免职，因为参议院需要三分之二的票数。他补充说，美国为数不多的持久两党共识之一是威慑中国。
Talk of impeachment and administrative gridlock would likely escalate over the next two years, Shimada said – though he doubted that Trump would be removed from office given the two-thirds threshold required in the Senate. One of the few lasting areas of bipartisan consensus in the US was deterring China, he added.
岛田说：“无论如何，当涉及中国和该地区的安全问题时，我相信民主党人会与共和党政府合作，帮助他们的伙伴。”
“In any case, when it comes to China and security issues in this region, I believe the Democrats would work with a Republican government to assist their partners,” Shimada said.